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UnherdThe shock of the Covid-19 lockdown has hit transport systems like a heart attack. Don’t expect them to recover quickly. It’s obvious that airlines will be on life-support for years. What is less well-understood is that, as discussion turns to reopening the economy, urban public transport is now looking at the equivalent of chronic heart disease, with lower demand, but even lower capacity.
As lockdowns ease, discretionary travel will be discouraged; home-working will remain ubiquitous, business travel will be almost non-existent. The economy will limp along for years, suffering first from the friction of social distancing, then from the destruction of everyone’s balance sheets: individuals, companies, charities, public sector and government. A few years of loose fiscal and monetary policy is likely to be followed by another decade of austerity.
Lower overall transport demand will be exacerbated by a dramatic shift away from trains and buses. Until the arrival of a vaccine — One year? Two? — those who are out and about are going to be scared of crowded vehicles. And with good reason: over 100 transport workers have already died of Covid-19 in the US, 39 in London by 3 May. ...