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Author Topic: Patterns of returning passengers?  (Read 610 times)
grahame
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« on: August 16, 2020, 02:19:15 pm »

From the Confederation of Passenger Transport

Quote
Greater congestion will increase journey times across the bus network, driving up running costs and pushing down passenger numbers. This is why we need to put bus travel at the heart of transport planning and encourage more people onto the bus #betterwithbus



Around 84% of GWR trains are running ... and each with a capacity of around 25% of normal - so that's an overall network capacity of around 21%. Reading off the graph about, it would appear that rail travel is somewhere between 15% and 10% of pre-covid levels so that trains are relatively quiet still - even measured against changed capacity.

Of course it's not "that simple":
Distribution by lines
Distribution by country (England, Scotland, Wales)
Distribution by time of day
Distribution by individual services
Distribution between individuals and bubble groups

Noted from my Heart of Wessex post and comparison to Heart of Wales ... you see a massive step up in terms of loading %age in one case and a step down, I suspect, to virtual zero in the other.

... you see the overloading on new percentages predominantly on trains based in Bristol - Cardiff to Portsmouth, Weymouth and Weston-super-mare, with some London to West of England services also busy

... you see good movement away from the morning peak with people being told to travel at quieter times.  The busiest time of day remains the evening peak, but even there the traffic levels as a proportion of the traffic through the whole day are reduced.   And the with the peaks knocked off, that traffic proportion has been moved to during the day.

If these pattern changes are maitained for the future, perhaps we will see a rebalance of services towards more regional services, and perhaps the changes will make it more econimic to run the railways as there will be less need for strengthened trains for just one service at each end of the day.

I note a post elsewhere talking about fare changes next month.  Interesting.  With the morning peak eliminate at present, should that early time remain peak?  Should railcards that click in at 09:30 or 10:00 really do so?  Has anyone been saying "Look - I've been working from home, but I'll come in to catch up.  I will do what the governemnt wants and travel away from the peak and that will also make a big saving" ...
   Melksham to Paddington - Anytime (period) return, out on 05:33 or 07:53 - £182.00
   Melksham to Paddington - Out on 10:02, back on any train - £124.50 (2 x singles)
   Melksham to Paddington - Out on 10:02, back on 16:32 - £76.70 (Off peak return)
   Melksham to Paddington - Out on 10:02, back on last train - £57.60 (Super off peak return)
   or think
   Melksham to Paddington - Week season - £290.20
which is the logical choice for anyone doing a full week, or close to it ... much rarer these days
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FarWestJohn
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« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2020, 07:30:52 pm »

I travelled from Falmouth to Penzance yesterday and bought my ticket at Truro. But I do not think many of the people who got on and off at intermediate stations had a ticket. The locals reckon the Falmouth branch is free if you are not going through the Truro barriers and trains are quite busy. There are no on train ticket checks or at Penzance so I do not understand how they know how many people are travelling if they are doing it from tickets sold?
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trainbuff
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« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2020, 10:00:22 pm »

There are separate ways to add passenger counts and send them off. This still gives a factual picture even if some of the counts are sensibly estimated
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Charlie (in Gloucester)
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« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2020, 10:12:31 pm »

Is there a possibility that people are taking advantage of the fact that on-board of ticket examinations have been suspended?

And on that matter - are they still suspended or has revenue protection continued? As soon as it does the better.
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grahame
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« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2020, 10:49:56 pm »

Is there a possibility that people are taking advantage of the fact that on-board of ticket examinations have been suspended?

And on that matter - are they still suspended or has revenue protection continued? As soon as it does the better.

Welcome back (noting your other post) ... It's been a very different time.

Priority has been given to safety - however the risk is reducing, and the revenue collectable on slightly busier trains slightly higher amount.

Individual train stats are not based on ticket sales.  Without all trains being all reservation and no last minute catching a later one, loading has to be done by staff count estimate, or weighing the passengers.

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stuving
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« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2020, 11:00:29 pm »

Not exactly core GWR territory, but I can give some observations from Wokingham. Road traffic had picked up a little by a month ago, but since then the route avoiding the level crossing has been closed for gas main works under the Guildford line bridge. That carries more traffic, which has been coming our way (and a lot of emergency vehicles). But that's now reopened, so we'll see what we're left with later this week.

SWR service levels barely dropped and have now returned to normal. Thw GWR North Downs service is still halved to 1 tph during the day with a few extras in the peak. My usual usage would be to go to Reading before or after lunch, and I'd not expect to see many passengers then. Coming home could get busy for schools and for GWR services around 5-6 pm, but the longer SWR trains less so.

Obviously no schools now, and a visual check suggests the evening peak is still well below normal but it's hard to put a number on that. For London commuters, the number of cars parked through the day must be a reasonable proxy. And that's been low - very low. The car park holds 531, and its new bit on stilts added 186. Assuming that number was both necessary and sufficient, it must have been running at 400-500 BV.

Throughout the lockdown I only once counted double figures, and after work was made respectable again that went up only once to over 20. Then at the start of August it went up to just under 30 each day, before dropping back to under 20 this week. So that's, what, 3%? Mostly, I think that says that people who live round here have jobs that can be done from home quite well. And they have been.
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CyclingSid
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« Reply #6 on: August 17, 2020, 06:52:57 am »

Latest national figures use of transport modes in Great Britain:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/908785/COVID-19-transport-use-statistics.ods
The data on this link is updated on a regular basis. Not sure why there is no cycling data for the latest week.
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grahame
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« Reply #7 on: August 17, 2020, 08:58:27 am »

For London commuters, the number of cars parked through the day must be a reasonable proxy. And that's been low - very low.

I question your assertion.  I wonder if those who drive to the station are returning to the train far slower than those who get to the station on foot or by bicycle - simply because they have the option of making the whole journey in their car, and have been frightened off by the messages on the use of public transport.  Those who have no such private vehicle option for the major miles of their journey have had to try / revert to the train.

Anecdotal evidence (my own eyes, small sample, not really looking at this shift) at Melksham suggests a significant passenger volume, but mostly walking, cycling or being dropped off / picked up.  There is, though a complicating factor at Melksham in that car parking for rail users was free prior to the pandemic, but is only free for up to 30 minutes now.
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stuving
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« Reply #8 on: August 17, 2020, 10:55:12 am »

For London commuters, the number of cars parked through the day must be a reasonable proxy. And that's been low - very low.

I question your assertion.  I wonder if those who drive to the station are returning to the train far slower than those who get to the station on foot or by bicycle - simply because they have the option of making the whole journey in their car, and have been frightened off by the messages on the use of public transport.  Those who have no such private vehicle option for the major miles of their journey have had to try / revert to the train.

Anecdotal evidence (my own eyes, small sample, not really looking at this shift) at Melksham suggests a significant passenger volume, but mostly walking, cycling or being dropped off / picked up.  There is, though a complicating factor at Melksham in that car parking for rail users was free prior to the pandemic, but is only free for up to 30 minutes now.

What you say is true, except that those who have a sensible car commuting distance would not pay the £8.60 per day or £1159 annually for the car park. Anyone going to Reading, or changing there for short distances, would go by car all the way. So while there may be a few commuting by bishop's or knight's moves other than into London, I still think the bulk of those paying the extra (and leaving their car unavailable and at risk) are going into London. But yes, that is a supposition.
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bobm
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« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2020, 11:05:50 am »

As has been reported the morning rush hour has certainly not returned.  Apparently the peak, at least on GWR, is currently between 10 and 11am no doubt driven by day trips.

It was definitely noticeable how quiet Paddington was at 7.30am midweek last week.

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