Will fear of public transport fuel a surge in new and used car demand?

[whole diary]

[grahame]

From Car Dealer Magazine

Will fear of public transport fuel a surge in new and used car demand when the lockdown lifts?

The thought of getting on a packed train with hundreds of commuters, only to be then forced into tunnels under ground for even more intimate encounters on the tube is understandably the last thing on people’s minds.

With the chief medical officer Professor Chris Witty revealing this week that with the lack of a vaccine social distancing is likely to be the new normal until the end of the year, will the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) shun public transport in favour of cars as it attempts to get back to work?

In what could be a small glimmer of hope for a car industry that is starting to plan for when it is allowed back into showrooms, social distancing measures could in fact play into the hands of car dealers.

Most of the experts we spoke to this weekend believed we will see a bus-bypassing bounce from the public avoiding packed commuter solutions.

Carwow surveyed 1,100 Londoners this week and found 72 per cent now ‘felt differently’ about public transport since the pandemic.

Seven per cent said they are now looking for a car as a result and six per cent said they were now planning to learn to drive.

While those percentages may be small, in the traditionally car-hating capital where congestion charges and low emission zones make commuting by car a last choice, that’s quite a swing away from public transport.

[stuving]

There were hints of this in that Systra survey. Not a reliable source, due to the lack of clarity and detail, but their PDF included:

Public transport passengers say they could make far fewer trips
after pandemic unless their needs are heard

City transport authori.es and operators could face a 20% fall in public transport use even a9er
COVID-19 travel restric.ons are li9ed, as passengers told the UK^▸ (United Kingdom)’s leading transport researchers
SYSTRA that they will avoid journeys unless health concerns are taken seriously, and commuters
change their working travel habits.

Now, what does that imply? The only extra detail in the texts was about "concerns over gettng ill". I wonder if that come out of the chat from their phone calls rather than the survey questions. But I can imagine that a slight uneasiness about crowds of assorted people might linger on ... mind you, plenty of people have been prepared to subject themselves to that in city metro/Underground/tram services even with the restrictions.

[Robin Summerhill]

I suspect that Car Dealer magazine has a point, but not perhaps as straightforward a one they think they have.

Firstly, and speaking as one who had to drive around London for a number of years in connection with Surveying contracts (it ain’t that easy to take a ladder on the underground or on a bus...), I am aware that driving around London is murder, especially the closer you get to inner London. The traffic is horrendous, overall average speeds are often little faster than walking, and parking charges were horrendous even 10 years ago, let alone now, and that was if of course you managed to find a parking space in the first place.

I suspect that the majority of London commuters, and those in other large urban areas, have few realistic alternatives to using public transport. I suspect the situation may hinge on how many people continue with home working in years to come. That in itself may substantially reduce inner city commuting, but it will do so not by increasing car usage, but by reducing the number of journeys made.

I think a transfer back to private cars might be seen more in rural and urban areas where it is more feasible. I am in fact an example myself. I have three uncles in the Gloucester and Cheltenham areas, two in their 80s and the other a mere lad of 71. When the lockdown is over it is my intention to go and see all three.

However...

One lives in Gloucester (Coney Hill) on the south east side of the city and 2 miles from Gloucester station. One lives in Innsworth, 3 miles from Gloucester and 6 miles from Cheltenham. The third lives in the back of beyond at Kilcot, near Newent. It is possible to get a bus from Gloucester to Newent and to within a mile of his house, but the way the timetable works means the hourly bus out of Gloucester leaves 6 minutes before the trains from Swindon arrive.

In all three cases, whilst I have used public transport to get there in recent years, it actually takes longer than driving, That normally doesn’t bother me, but now I am seriously wondering whether I want to sit on a train for that long with other, even socially-distanced people, and I don’t know where they’ve been...

I might be trying to talk SWMBO^▸ (She Who Must Be Obeyed) into a bit of chauffeuring for some time to come. I wonder how many other people are beginning to think the same way? 

[TaplowGreen]

I think it's entirely possible that given the prolonged experience of working from home and the realisation that "presenteeism" in the office does not necessarily add value will mean that more flexible working patterns and more remote working will become the norm, rather than the exception and it's this that will most likely reduce traffic on the roads and the rails going forward, particularly amongst those with more awkward/expensive commutes.

I don't see a surge in demand for cars - if the forecast recession comes to pass, quite the opposite, and obviously a significant increase in unemployment will mean a reduction in day to day travelling too.

If there is an uptick in demand for cars, it's more likely to be driven by practicality than fear I think?

[Bmblbzzz]

Not necessarily a surge in demand for cars to buy but I think it's very likely fear will drive a surge in proportion of journeys made by means other than public transport. That won't always mean driving but driving is the inevitable default unless we have a far more drastic shake up in our towns and cities, not to mention rural areas, than anyone is contemplating.

[stuving]

A couple of days ago, I'm sure I heard a news item that car-sharing was being officially suggested as a way of reducing the numbers in public transport. It took a while to find any words about this, and they don't say that at all. It's covered in "Coronavirus (COVID-19): safer travel guidance for passengers" under "Private cars and other vehicles":

If you normally share a vehicle with people from other households for essential journeys, we recommend you find a different way to travel. For example, consider walking, cycling or using your own vehicle if you can.

If you have to travel with people outside your household group, try to share the transport with the same people each time and keep to small groups of people at any one time.

There are some circumstances when wearing a face covering may be marginally beneficial as a precautionary measure. The evidence suggests that wearing a face covering does not protect you, but it may protect others if you are infected but have not yet developed symptoms. This is most relevant for short periods indoors in crowded areas.
...

This same issue come up for taxis, of course, and this is under "Taxis and private hire vehicles":

Taxi and private hire vehicle (for example minicab) operators are likely to have put in place new measures to help with social distancing. When traveling in taxis or private hire vehicles follow the advice of the driver. For example, you may be asked to sit in the back left hand seat if travelling alone. You may want to check with your taxi operator before travelling if they have put any additional measures in place.

If you need to be near other people you should avoid physical contact, try to face away from other people, and keep the time you spend near other people as short as possible. Be aware of the surfaces you or others touch.

There are some circumstances when wearing a face covering may be marginally beneficial as a precautionary measure. The evidence suggests that wearing a face covering does not protect you, but it may protect others if you are infected but have not yet developed symptoms. This is most relevant for short periods indoors in crowded areas.
...

I heard Elisabeth Borne (the transport minsiter) announce the rules for France last week, and they (on line here) are a lot more straightforward (remember that the safe spacing there is 1 metre).

" What are the rules for taxis, private hire vehicles, and car-sharing?

Where space inside cars is shared, it is recommended to fit a physical barrier (flexible glazing or plastic sheet) between the driver and the passengers, who must sit in the rear.

If a barrier cannot be fitted, wearing a "public" mask [face covering] is required. The driver can refuse to carry a passenger not wearing one, or showing symptoms of Covid-19.

The vehicle must be disinfected every day by the driver."

There was some extra clarification (not on the official web site Q&A) about passengers (plural): only one per row of seats - but presumably (I don't recall) people from one household can sit together.

I just heard that Uber and Addison-Lee are going to fit plastic screens to divide passengers from drivers.