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Author Topic: HST derailment, near Stonehaven, 12th August 2020  (Read 23928 times)
ellendune
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« Reply #75 on: August 23, 2020, 18:58:36 »

To resume my meteorological discussion with Stuving, I think it is a bit of a jump to assume thar most or even a substantial number of the 500mm per day readings result from convectional rainfall. My guess is that most would be from the kind of conditions we experienced in the winter of 2013/4 when deep Atlantic depressions gave days of long  steady rain to fill the rain gauges.

Entirely anecdotal, but as someone who records rainfall at home and have done so for about 30 years (admittedly in a rain shadow where we get low annual totals and more than an inch a day usually occurs once or twice a year at most), I can only think of one occasion when we had an intense storm producing 2 inches in a few hours, namely the exceptional storm in July 2007. That produced flash flooding and damage on a scale I have not seen before or since.

Deep Atlantic depressions generally give long periods of rainfall which. while not necessarily that intense over a short period, accumulate to large amounts because of the duration of the rainfall.  These are often associated with winter river flooding though occasionally also in the summer.  Since they originate in the Atlantic they are more common and usually more severe in the west of the country.

Convectional summer storms are more commonly associated with short periods of very intense rainfall which lead to flash floods.  They are typically more common and more severe in the east of the country.

If you consider the average intensity of rainfall in a series of events we find a relationship of reducing intensity with increasing duration for the same probability of a rainfall event. 

So for a 1 in 1 year event it is not uncommon to find a distribution of 90 mm/hr over 5 mins reducing to say 60mm per hour over 15 minutes. If the report of  52mm of rain in 4 hours (12 mm/hr) is correct it does not sound that much so i do not expect it on its own to be very significant. However the wider context of rainfall may bring more significance was this 52mm on top of a lot of previous rainfall.

 
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stuving
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« Reply #76 on: August 23, 2020, 22:44:18 »

To resume my meteorological discussion with Stuving, I think it is a bit of a jump to assume thar most or even a substantial number of the 500mm per day readings result from convectional rainfall. My guess is that most would be from the kind of conditions we experienced in the winter of 2013/4 when deep Atlantic depressions gave days of long  steady rain to fill the rain gauges.

Entirely anecdotal, but as someone who records rainfall at home and have done so for about 30 years (admittedly in a rain shadow where we get low annual totals and more than an inch a day usually occurs once or twice a year at most), I can only think of one occasion when we had an intense storm producing 2 inches in a few hours, namely the exceptional storm in July 2007. That produced flash flooding and damage on a scale I have not seen before or since.

I wasn't really trying to make such a precise numeric point, apart from that genuine measured value of 50 mm/day (500 mm really would be scary!) 0.4 times per year at any random place. How concentrated that is within the 24 hours is secondary, but certainly it will vary. And even for frontal rain, it will rarely come with most of it spread over more than twelve hours. And convective cells and thunderstorms do form along fronts.

As I hinted, assuming the fraction of such intense rain days that are convective in origin is 50% is not more than the modeller's standard assumption for a parameter that must lie between 0 and 1 but otherwise nothing is known about its value. So the two-hour burst of rain might indeed be once per ten or even twenty years - but more precise definitions would be needed for that to be truly meaningful. Of course, when talking about how often I'd come across such rain or its flooding, that's not going to reflect the statistics for a single place. Driving takes you a lot of places along the route - but then the same is true of a railway line.

A further point that blurs the division between day-long and shorter rain bursts is that the response time of catchments and drainage varies a lot too. Drains (meaning pipes) have a largely fixed capacity, which they can cope with, and then anything above that flow rate has to go elsewhere. Hard surfaces provide only limited storage too; here it's the short burst that give flooding. More natural areas will respond slower, and watercourses spread progressively, and so respond to a day (or more) of rainfall (at least, on flatter land).
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« Reply #77 on: August 24, 2020, 15:38:36 »

I think this quote, posted on Facebook by the driver's widow, Stephanie Mccullough, warrants posting here............  [ edit / Grahame to add link ((here)) to the post, which is public ]
Quote
I thought I had to post this because of the recent posts on various news channels implying my lovely husband was at fault.
When Brett was at carmont, he was actually held there for 2 hours, when Brett was told to proceed back north he was told it was good to proceed at line speed that was 75mph, he was under that!! at this point in time the storm had past and the sun was shining, Brett did what he was told we know this because the “black box” recorded Brett’s speed that was under the speed limit and the communications between scotrail and Brett record everything!! we also know Brett saw the landslide because the emergence breaks were applied. Many people don’t know that you can’t just stop a train! When the breaks are applied it could take up to a mile to stop a train, it’s not instant like a car. I can’t stand people implying that my beautiful kind husband was to blame. He did everything he was told to do. I can assure you Brett loved his job and did everything by the book. Unfortunately coming round that corner there was nothing he could have done. Please don’t assume things if you don’t know how the railway works as it’s very different from driving a car. It’s extremely hurtful to think people are judging Brett when they have absolutely no idea what they are talking about. Nobody should go to work and not come home. I have 3 heartbroken children here who Brett adored. His family was his world and he cared so much about people. Nobody can say a bad word about my kind gentle husband. Steph x

Good to see someone posting the truth, obviously the family is bound to know more than the rest of us! It doesn't raise serious questions of Scotrail/Network Rail safety culture in bad weather, I know on my commutes of years ago during heavy rain/wind GWR (Great Western Railway) have always slowed the trains down often to about 75mph on the 100mph between Starcross and Exeter.

I also dread to think what was going on in Brett's head when he saw that landslip and knew he didn't have time to stop, veyr terrifying to think about what was going on in those last few minutes.
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grahame
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« Reply #78 on: August 24, 2020, 16:07:50 »

Good to see someone posting the truth, obviously the family is bound to know more than the rest of us ...

The reposting of the message posted on Stephanie Mccollough's account onto the forum was 100% correct - and it's a message that stands well on its own.  Not, actually, obvious southwest that family is bound to know more about railway safety. My wife would not have claimed to have understood mutable and immutable objects which I was involved with many times while working.  But the post is a good one - indeed a remarkable one in the circumstances.



I ... wondered ... whether to follow up on Facebook with a personal note of sympathy and condolence onto that account.  In the end, I held back.  Seeing floods of support and messages and suspecting that even more might overwhelm - an educated guess on my part, and no more, and I don't know if I got it right.

But I am going to add here, in public, my condolences, respect and sympathy for the families and friends of all three people who died. And add my admiration for the way that Facebook message was handled by Steph (I call her that, because it's how she signed it) and those closely assisting her. This message of respect, admiration and sympathy should remain here on this forum. It may be found in a year or a decade's time and perhaps may bring sollace long, long after the spotlight has moved on, by friends and families of all. And, perhaps at a time when the message will not be part of a flood, and the more welcomed for that.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2020, 16:31:05 by grahame » Logged

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« Reply #79 on: August 25, 2020, 14:54:44 »

Network rail have announced two task forces to provide expert advice on the weather and earthworks, with specific reference to the effects of the one on the other:
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Network Rail launches task forces in wake of Stonehaven tragedy

Region & Route:    National

Network Rail has launched two independent task forces, led by world renowned experts, to help it better manage its massive earthworks (cuttings and embankments) portfolio and its understanding and response to severe weather events.

It follows the tragic events near Stonehaven on 12 August, where a train derailment led to driver Brett McCullough, conductor Donald Dinnie and passenger Christopher Stuchbury sadly losing their lives.

Dame Julia Slingo FRS, former chief scientist at the Met Office and a world-renowned expert in climatology, will lead a weather action task force with the objective of better equipping Network Rail to understand the risk of rainfall to its infrastructure, drawing on the latest scientific developments in monitoring, real-time observations and weather forecasting.

Meanwhile, Lord Robert Mair CBE FREng FRS will spearhead an earthworks management task force to see how Network Rail can improve the management of its massive earthworks portfolio, looking at past incidents, latest technologies and innovations and best practice from across the globe.

Network Rail's current safety management system provides a framework for the management of cuttings, embankments, structures and drainage. These have helped the company to limit the effects of rainfall on its infrastructure, but the events at Stonehaven on 12 August have shown that more understanding is needed to help mitigate the risks further.

Andrew Haines, Network Rail chief executive, said: “The Stonehaven tragedy resulted in three people losing their lives - this is a stark reminder that we must never take running a safe railway for granted.

“With more and more extreme weather and tens of thousands of earthwork assets across Great Britain, our challenge is massive. And while we are making record investment in these areas, we have asked world renowned experts, Dame Julia Slingo and Lord Mair, to help us address these issues as effectively as possible, and at pace.”
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« Reply #80 on: August 26, 2020, 19:26:52 »

Good to see someone posting the truth, obviously the family is bound to know more than the rest of us ...

The reposting of the message posted on Stephanie Mccollough's account onto the forum was 100% correct - and it's a message that stands well on its own.  Not, actually, obvious southwest that family is bound to know more about railway safety. My wife would not have claimed to have understood mutable and immutable objects which I was involved with many times while working.  But the post is a good one - indeed a remarkable one in the circumstances.



I ... wondered ... whether to follow up on Facebook with a personal note of sympathy and condolence onto that account.  In the end, I held back.  Seeing floods of support and messages and suspecting that even more might overwhelm - an educated guess on my part, and no more, and I don't know if I got it right.

But I am going to add here, in public, my condolences, respect and sympathy for the families and friends of all three people who died. And add my admiration for the way that Facebook message was handled by Steph (I call her that, because it's how she signed it) and those closely assisting her. This message of respect, admiration and sympathy should remain here on this forum. It may be found in a year or a decade's time and perhaps may bring sollace long, long after the spotlight has moved on, by friends and families of all. And, perhaps at a time when the message will not be part of a flood, and the more welcomed for that.

I do believe there is a JustGive page set up for the tragedy, maybe something to look into?
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grahame
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« Reply #81 on: August 26, 2020, 19:50:51 »

I do believe there is a JustGive page set up for the tragedy, maybe something to look into?

Something of a discussion on several funds in "Frequent Posters" ((here)). You are very welcome to follow up those posts.  The utter support for the families and friends of those who lost their lives, and those hurt physically and mentally too, should go without saying (but I'll say it again anyway). How we can best deliver that or help others to do so is not so clear.
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grahame
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« Reply #82 on: August 29, 2020, 06:54:25 »

Yesterday's Scotsman

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The site of a ScotRail train derailment in which three people died and six were injured will not re-open for at least another month, an industry source has told The Scotsman.

However, it is also understood that no significant problems have been found in checks at other at-risk sites across the Scottish network which were ordered in the wake of the crash.
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« Reply #83 on: September 01, 2020, 06:56:15 »

It looks like it's still some time before the line will re-open past the accident site.

Scotrail have started an Aberdeen to Stonehaven shuttle service - https://www.scotrail.co.uk/about-scotrail/news/scotrail-introduces-stonehaven-shuttle-service-keep-customers-moving .   From the south, trains are terminating at Dundee - in view of the Stonehaven shuttles, can we expect a shuttle from Dundee to Arbroath and Montrose - both sizeable towns in their one rights, and (with the Stonehaven shuttle) deducting the rail gap from 66 miles to 23.
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« Reply #84 on: September 10, 2020, 11:30:55 »

From the BBC» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page)

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Network Rail has admitted that the impact of climate change on its network "is an area that is accelerating faster than our assumptions".

It said a fatal derailment near Stonehaven on 12 August showed that the industry must improve its response to extreme weather.

Reference to Report from Network Rail to DfT» (Department for Transport - about)


Quote
The derailment of a passenger train near Carmont on 12 August 2020 was a tragedy for the families and friends of the three people who lost their lives and will have a lasting effect on those injured and involved in responding, as well as the wider railway industry. It has raised questions about the resilience and safe performance of the railway, and how the risk of such an event happening again can be minimised.

Emerging findings from the investigations suggest that a significant contributing factor to the derailment was heavy rainfall washing material onto the track. Therefore, this report commissioned by the Secretary of State for Transport seeks to provide an initial review of the resilience of rail infrastructure, in particular in the context of severe weather. Because of the nature of events that led to the derailment at Carmont, the report focuses on the resilience of earthworks and drainage infrastructure to heavy rainfall.

It is critical to understand fully what went wrong, what is being done now and what more can and should be done. This report in no way pre-empts the outcome of formal independent investigations. It is a look at our current approach, procedures and risk; our immediate and longer- term plans and actions; and initial consideration of next steps.
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« Reply #85 on: September 10, 2020, 18:51:10 »

There has been an "emergency" change to "The Rule Book" which adds some clarification and addition actions on how track workers, drivers etc should report land slips, washouts, flooding etc how signallers and control should respond.

There has always been items in the Rule Book regarding this, the change reinforces some Rules, clarifies actions and responses
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« Reply #86 on: September 12, 2020, 06:07:43 »

It looks like it's still some time before the line will re-open past the accident site.

Scotrail have started an Aberdeen to Stonehaven shuttle service - https://www.scotrail.co.uk/about-scotrail/news/scotrail-introduces-stonehaven-shuttle-service-keep-customers-moving .   From the south, trains are terminating at Dundee - in view of the Stonehaven shuttles, can we expect a shuttle from Dundee to Arbroath and Montrose - both sizeable towns in their one rights, and (with the Stonehaven shuttle) deducting the rail gap from 66 miles to 23.

A month on ...  Scotrail reports

Quote
A new shuttle service between Montrose and Edinburgh will be introduced from Monday, 14 September to allow customers travelling in the north east to complete their journey by rail.

The service will run Monday to Saturday between Montrose and Edinburgh, and between Montrose and Dundee on Sundays.

It follows the introduction of a rail shuttle service between Aberdeen and Stonehaven last week.

Existing replacement bus services between Dundee and Aberdeen remain in place for customers travelling beyond Montrose.

Network Rail has begun work to reopen the railway at Stonehaven following the derailment on 12 August, however the full timescale for completion is not yet known.
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« Reply #87 on: September 12, 2020, 08:16:36 »

According to Phil Haigh on Twitter the power car and two coaches have been lifted clear, with UKRail forums reporting the power car arriving at the old Springburn works in Glasgow
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« Reply #88 on: October 16, 2020, 20:51:08 »

From The Scotsman

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Network Rail engineers are now relaying over 500 metres of track following the recent completion of work to repair the bridge and embankment damaged in the accident.

Work will continue into November as engineers remove and replace the damaged track and relay 400 metres of telecoms cables.
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« Reply #89 on: October 17, 2020, 08:17:09 »

Updated photos can be found here
https://twitter.com/philatrail/status/1317076825387008000?s=21

https://twitter.com/networkrailscot/status/1317197371357364225?s=21
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