Public transport, Climate change, Coronavirus and Brexit. Crystal Ball Time.

[whole diary]

[Red Squirrel]

I don't think we are disputing that the private car has passed its peak and is in decline in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom), are we? How far it will decline is uncertain, but it probably isn't fanciful to imagine it falling to about half current levels over about 30 years.

Personally I haven't been to a supermarket since March, and can't say I've missed it. Having discovered Ocado (sorry, CfN!) I can't see a good reason to go back to one. Supermarket trips were one of the last justifications for owning a car for our family, but now that's gone we are seriously considering joining a car club. Why would you own a car if you didn't need to?

What some might call 'the real world' might look, to others, like ossified thinking. What some might call 'idealism', others might call the future.

[grahame]

But even if you do live in a large urban area and have public transport facilities in the area, they may not be available for the whole day or o where you want to go. I live in Chippenham with a population c.30,000 which I suppose puts me in the 23.7 million living in urban city and town category. If I want to go to Bath or Swindon I can simply swan into the station and get the next train (30 min interval service) or stand at the appropriate bus stop (20 minute interval service). On those buses I can also go to Calne or Lyneham or Wootton Bassett or Corsham.

If I want to go anywhere else it need thinking about and timetables need to be consulted

But if I want to start my journey on a bus with a stop in my street I am restricted to a broadly hourly service between 0935 and 1550 M to F, 0845 to 1355 on Saturdays and nothing on Sundays

If I want to go to the main Sainsburys in Chippenham it is 2.5 miles away or about a 45 minute walk each way. To get a bus from home and back I am out for a minimum 2 hours and a change of bus each way is required. It is 8 minutes away by car. And going by car inevitably leads to making less trips because there is only so much that people can lug home in a shopping bag on the bus.

So I hope you will see that when you get down into the practicalities of the situation, the figure of 17 million living in rural areas starts to become a meaningless statistic. I hope you will also see that The End of the Car is not likely to happen in our lifetimes and probably not our childrens lifetimes either

This post, I hasten to add, is not supposed to be pro car or anti public transport, it is a detailed look at how practicality can trounce idealism in the real world for millions of people in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) and elsewhere in the world

I agree not pro-car or pro-public-transport.  But it does show up the need and opportunity to rebuild a practical public transport system that satisfies real journeys from home to Sainsbury's (or your friend's home to Lidl or your councillor's home to Waitrose)

I'm noting the importance of good connections ... frequency ... long running day as important to the poster here, and end to end time - not the running time of the individual legs.

"Wiltshire is a rural county" we are told. Maybe.  Around 40% of our population live away from the towns and city - and providing them with practical public transport is a real challenge.  But we should be able to do better for that other 60%.

[Robin Summerhill]

As Graham has picked up on, the fact that one person has found a new and exciting way to get their baked beans rather than going to the supermarket to take a tin off the shelf is rather missing the point and bordering on the facetious. I was simply giving a worked example, and one that applies to me, of a situation in which public transport may well be available bur it isn?t necessarily practical or convenient to use it. All of us who don?t live in large cities could think of our own examples.

Another that affects me directly is rather more convoluted. As I have mentioned on this forum before I have a large number of relations in Newent, Gloucestershire. On the face of it the public transport opportunities are excellent; there are at least two trains an hour from Chippenham to Gloucester with a change at Bristol or Swindon, and sometimes a third train an hour via Bristol and XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) to Cheltenham. All routes are permitted with walkup fares. Then is then an hourly bus from Gloucester to Newent, and a walking time of about 3 minutes between Gloucester railway and bus stations.

But there is a problem. The trains into Gloucester from Swindon or Bristol all arrive between 00:13 and 00:27. The hourly bus to Newent leaves the bus station at 00:15. On the way back, the service from Gloucester is timed to arrive at Swindon within a minute of the departure of the next Bristol train, so bang goes another 30 minutes unless its late.

So do I expect GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) and Stagecoach to amend their timetables or increase their services simply because somebody wants to go from Chippenham to Newent three or four times a year and doesn?t want to spend an hour looking at Gloucester Bus station or Swindon Junction? Of course I dont; ?the service is there; it suits the majority of our passengers, and you old son has Hobson?s choice.?

I doubt that people who want to go from Barking to Barnet or Sandwell to Solihull have these problems.

To attempt to dismiss such practicalities as ossified thinking reminds me a little of an Evangelical preacher, so I will end this post with the words to the chorus of a song from the 1960s. They may be apt in these circumstances:

?Everybodys getting religion
Everybodys seeing the light
Everybodys following someone
I only hope that somones got it sussed out right?

[Red Squirrel]

There is nothing exciting about getting my beans delivered. It has simply become normal. I doubt that Ocado's business (other delivery services are available) would be thriving as they are if I were the only one who thought that getting my groceries sent round was better than driving across town to a supermarket.

I am not evangelising. I freely acknowledge that for a substantial number of people a private motor car will be the most convenient form of transport for the foreseeable future. But that  number is falling, and will fall (potentially much) further, particularly in towns.
 

[REVUpminster]

I don't think cars will halve in the next 30 years. Probably stay the same but will be electric.

Outside London pensioners still form a large section of the driving force.  Another is Fathers with daughters who would sooner buy them a car than let them use public transport or walk home at night. Parents on the school run. It's a pleasure to drive where I live in the holidays despite the holidaymakers.

Coopers Coburn school in Upminster had lots of sixth formers driving in, parking outside my home until restrictions came off nearer the school at 10am.

[broadgage]

I expect car use and numbers of cars to halve in certain areas that are well provided with public transport and in which parking is hugely costly.
Supermarket home delivery services will reduce the number of older drivers, a lot of whom drive primarily for shopping. Whilst todays generation of older drivers might be a bit reluctant to use on line ordering, many middle aged people already use this service will probably continue as they get older.
But nationally I agree that a halving is unlikely.

Broadgage has a most cynical proposal to increase the use of electric cars. Many parents are utterly desperate to park as close as possible to the school gates, sometimes resorting to punch ups to achieve this. And many such parents know that the highway code does not apply to the school run. (zig zag road markings mean "school set down and pick up zone")

I would therefore reserve those parking places nearest to the school for electric cars only. Show what a good parent you are by parking 10 meters closer.

[Robin Summerhill]

I would therefore reserve those parking places nearest to the school for electric cars only. Show what a good parent you are by parking 10 meters closer.

Bearing in  mind that those markings are there to improve visibility sight lines at school entrances, I would suggest that spikes next to the kerb might be a better option. To improve safety they could be spring loaded and normally sunken so only come up when a cars weight is parked on them...

[Red Squirrel]

I don't think cars will halve in the next 30 years. Probably stay the same but will be electric.

Outside London pensioners still form a large section of the driving force.  Another is Fathers with daughters who would sooner buy them a car than let them use public transport or walk home at night. Parents on the school run. It's a pleasure to drive where I live in the holidays despite the holidaymakers.

Coopers Coburn school in Upminster had lots of sixth formers driving in, parking outside my home until restrictions came off nearer the school at 10am.

My daughter cycles the 3.5 km to her school every day...

[REVUpminster]

I don't think cars will halve in the next 30 years. Probably stay the same but will be electric.

Outside London pensioners still form a large section of the driving force.  Another is Fathers with daughters who would sooner buy them a car than let them use public transport or walk home at night. Parents on the school run. It's a pleasure to drive where I live in the holidays despite the holidaymakers.

Coopers Coburn school in Upminster had lots of sixth formers driving in, parking outside my home until restrictions came off nearer the school at 10am.

My daughter cycles the 3.5 km to her school every day...

But will she still cycle (plays havoc with your hair) to the nightclub or disco with her girlfriends in a few years or will some random men they meet walk them home. Perhaps the night bus if in London or Torquay which had one on Friday/Saturday nights until covid.

[Bmblbzzz]

I don't think cars will halve in the next 30 years. Probably stay the same but will be electric.

Outside London pensioners still form a large section of the driving force.  Another is Fathers with daughters who would sooner buy them a car than let them use public transport or walk home at night. Parents on the school run. It's a pleasure to drive where I live in the holidays despite the holidaymakers.

Coopers Coburn school in Upminster had lots of sixth formers driving in, parking outside my home until restrictions came off nearer the school at 10am.

My daughter cycles the 3.5 km to her school every day...

But only until the end of this year. From the spring term it will be officially 413,385 barleycorns. She does have a Sturmey Archer three-speed hub and a Brooks saddle?

[REVUpminster]

I don't think cars will halve in the next 30 years. Probably stay the same but will be electric.

Outside London pensioners still form a large section of the driving force.  Another is Fathers with daughters who would sooner buy them a car than let them use public transport or walk home at night. Parents on the school run. It's a pleasure to drive where I live in the holidays despite the holidaymakers.

Coopers Coburn school in Upminster had lots of sixth formers driving in, parking outside my home until restrictions came off nearer the school at 10am.

My daughter cycles the 3.5 km to her school every day...

But only until the end of this year. From the spring term it will be officially 413,385 barleycorns. She does have a Sturmey Archer three-speed hub and a Brooks saddle?

You are talking bicycle? Or Benny Hill?

[Bmblbzzz]

Not Benny Hill, his brother Lawrence.

[ellendune]

My daughter cycles the 3.5 km to her school every day...

But only until the end of this year. From the spring term it will be officially 413,385 barleycorns. She does have a Sturmey Archer three-speed hub and a Brooks saddle?

Are barleycorns Rees-Mogg customary units?

[Bmblbzzz]

My daughter cycles the 3.5 km to her school every day...

But only until the end of this year. From the spring term it will be officially 413,385 barleycorns. She does have a Sturmey Archer three-speed hub and a Brooks saddle?

Are barleycorns Rees-Mogg customary units?

The origin of British shoe sizes.

[broadgage]

I would therefore reserve those parking places nearest to the school for electric cars only. Show what a good parent you are by parking 10 meters closer.

Bearing in  mind that those markings are there to improve visibility sight lines at school entrances, I would suggest that spikes next to the kerb might be a better option. To improve safety they could be spring loaded and normally sunken so only come up when a cars weight is parked on them...

I was not proposing that electric vehicles should be permitted to park in places currently prohibited. The regulations are indeed existing for a reason, even if widely flouted.
What I suggest is that of the currently permitted parking places, that those nearest the school gates be reserved for electric vehicles. No increase in spaces, but reserving the most favoured spots for EVs.

The spikes sound entertaining, but might not prove entirely practical.