Looking forward - longer distance question for when MetroWest is running

[whole diary]

[grahame]

Meetings in the last few days have confirmed the expectation that the MetroWest service on the Severn Beach line, continuing to/from Westbury, will start in December (2021).  Excellent.  So how does that effect the other services around and about?

Will the extra trains from Bristol to Westbury call at all the stations?  At all WECA^» (West of England Combined Authority - about) stations then Westbury?  Keynsham, Oldfield Park, Bath Spa, then fast to Bradford-on-Avon, Trowbridge and Westbury?

When they arrive at Westbury will all the trains turn back or will there be a variety of extensions - Warminster, Frome, Yeovil, Weymouth, Southampton and Brighton?   If not extended, will the trains that arrive into Westbury from Swindon be extended instead? And / or will Dilton Marsh be served by the (perhaps) new look Cardiff - Portsmouth?

A suggestion was made that the Cardiff - Portsmouth service should become truely Inter-City; slight "perhaps not" when the cities were listed as Cardiff, Newport, Bristol, Bath, Salisbury, Southampton and Portsmouth.  "Not much good if it goes rattling or flying through our station" comments someone.  But where are the none-city stops needed?  Are places like Bradford-on-Avon and Trowbridge now adequately served by the half hourly MetroWest service alone?

Considerations in answering need to be given to passenger flows and wannabe-flows as they were up until last March, and how they might return over the next 6 to 18 months, and following years. Also to service robustness, connectivity, practicallity, efficiency.  How much is about end to end speed, how much about intermediate service, how much about comfort, how much about loading all the way along, how much about maximising direct journeys, how much about how long station stops will take with the stock in use? How much about balancing passenger numbers at the points along the way?  How much about abstracing from or giving over to the Metro West trains?

A post of questions ... follow ups with throughs as to where the answers should lie? Is it a case of "it ain't bust - don't fix it" simply adding an extra service every hour Bristol to Westbury, or is there more that should be done??

[Bmblbzzz]

Which Beach line trains are to be extended to Westbury? All of them, every other, some more complex pattern?

[grahame]

Which Beach line trains are to be extended to Westbury? All of them, every other, some more complex pattern?

My understanding is that the service will run every 30 minutes from Westbury to Avonmouth.  That can be done within the existing infrastructure on The Beach line.

The 30 minutes service on the line would be inefficient stand-alone because of the need for a train to be idle most of the time at Temple Meads, with a train arriving there just a couple of minutes after one has left, with the trains passing each other around Dr Day's Junction.   Timing does allow for a stop at Portway Parkway too.

Within the timing (especially with the Portway Parkway stop) all trains could be extended to Severn Beach; I am not clear on plans there; the extension would give an issue with getting trains in the right place at the right time unless they all extended, and I can't see trains splitting and joining at Avonmouth.

A big unknown is "beyond Westbury" ... platform space at Westbury is already limited and there's the question about local services onwards via Frome and via Dilton Marsh.

[Bmblbzzz]

Thanks Grahame. My feeling would be that it made sense for the local, stopping service from Severn Beach to continue as a local, stopping service, leaving the Portsmouth to Cardiff trains as fast (or inter-city, express, or whatever similar term might be used). Perhaps Bristol to Westbury is at toward the outer limit of what's reasonable as an all-stations stopper, but it's probably a shorter distance than Bristol to Great Malvern, although with more intermediate stations.

The question then would be which stations do the Portsmouths skip? I'd personally be happy for them to skip, say, Avoncliffe but not Freshford; but that's just because I personally visit Freshford rather than any real demand or operational reason. Also, I know several of the stations on that line (can't remember which ones but know it included both Avoncliffe and Freshford) had their platforms extended a few years ago precisely (AIUI^▸ (as I understand it)) so the five-car Portsmouth trains could call there, so it would be a bit silly if that stopped. I don't suppose five cars are going to run on either the Beach line or to Weymouth...

Hmm, the more I think about it, the more compromises have to be made in more places.  And I haven't even begun to think about actual timetabling (cos that, obviously, is something I know nothing about). It inspires respect for the people who actually draw up all the services, timetables, and make it all run without getting in each other's way.

[Red Squirrel]

Will you be at the timetabling meeting on Thursday, grahame? That might be a good place to raise some of these questions.

[IndustryInsider]

It inspires respect for the people who actually draw up all the services, timetables, and make it all run without getting in each other's way.

You're not wrong there.  

Earlier in the week, whilst bored at home, I tracked the daily Cardiff Wentloog to Felixstowe North liner train on opentraintimes maps, as you can follow it the whole way, mostly on maps with aspect and route setting information.  It was interesting to see how it weaved in between passenger trains, especially negotiating London Overground trains and other freight as it went between Acton and Stratford.

In fact watching the Felixstowe map through to the Ely map on OTT^▸ (Open Train Times website) is a great demonstration of how to maximise paths, and how crucial it is that freight trains present themselves on time, as there always seems to be several freights in attendance.  Though the Ipswich to Felixstowe service in only running once every two hours at the moment, rather than hourly, so there's a bit more breathing space.  

An ideal way to while away a few hours during lockdown if you're that way inclined!  

[grahame]

Will you be at the timetabling meeting on Thursday, grahame? That might be a good place to raise some of these questions.

Yes, I should be - to some extent this discussion is to help me to "read in" and understand more of the metrics from West Wilts into Bath and Bristol.

[grahame]

The question then would be which stations do the Portsmouths skip? ...

I've drawn up a trains-per-hour table for 2019 (before last year's funnies) and from next year (after the change) looking to put questions / options into the chart

Definite stuff ... 4 trains an hour from Bristol to and via Bath Spa (2 to London, 1 to Portsmouth, 1 to / via Westbury) raised to 5 trains with the extra service to Westbury.   All 5 in the new timetable calling at Bath - would don't make sense for any to skip it. All 3 that go to / through Westbury to stop there.  Then you come to the questions ...

Does the new train call at Keynsham and Oldfield Park?   Almost certainly it does - it's the whole original purpose of it being a metro.  Does it call at Freshford and Avoncliff?   Freshford is in the WECA^» (West of England Combined Authority - about) area, Avoncliff is not - but  both of those stations have tiny passenger numbers compared to Keynsham and Oldfield Park on the same current hourly service:
- 512k Keynsham
- 323k Oldfield Park
- 53k Freshford
- 25k Avoncliff

Bradford-on-Avon is an interesting case.  One train per hour, stopping into Bristol at 5 intermediate stations, good growth and articulate passengers all helped bring it up to 2 trains an hour.   Now - do you have the new train call there instead of the Cardiff - Portsmouth, or in addition to that train?   If the new train skips Freshford and Avoncliff, there is logic in that train taking over the call of the regional service, but if the new train calls at those stations, the call in Bradford-on-Avon will be for all three trains to stop there.

There is a similar argument for Trowbridge - though with 934k passenger per annum versus 534k at B-o-A, the case for the long distance train stopping there is overwhelming.

Note that my chart does not include very specific opportunities for journeys from Trowbridge to Westbury on the TransWilts train that runs every 2 or 3 hours (and needs to be every hour!). Nor does it include the 3 or 4 extra SWR^» (South Western Railway - about) services from Bristol to Westbury that go on to Waterloo; it will be interesting to see how they go forward with Bristol Metro changes, and with the move from competitive franchises to management contracts for TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company).

The Bath and Bristol "travel to work" area realistically extends beyond Westbury - stations at Dilton Marsh, Warminster and Frome are logically in the catchment, and in order to avoid blocking Westbury platforms with turning trains, hourly extensions of the Bristol Metro to each of Warminster and Frome would have considerable merit.   There is merit to go further too, and indeed some services will need to run beyond Frome as "Heart of Wessex" services which merit another thread.

[Bmblbzzz]

I'm surprised the difference in passenger figures between BoA^» (Bradford-on-Avon - next trains) and Trowbridge is as large as that. As for extending services beyond Westbury, it strikes me that Westbury is a far more significant "station" than "destination"; being a major junction makes it more important in railway terms than its size alone would warrant.

[grahame]

I'm surprised the difference in passenger figures between BoA^» (Bradford-on-Avon - next trains) and Trowbridge is as large as that. As for extending services beyond Westbury, it strikes me that Westbury is a far more significant "station" than "destination"; being a major junction makes it more important in railway terms than its size alone would warrant.

Trowbridge figures include TransWilts journeys to(wards) Swindon too which account for a significant part of the difference - so if you look at the trains headed to / from Bath, it will look far closer to equality.  I also suspect (though I have no figures) that B-o-A is far more biased towards journeys to / from the north than Trowbridge, so again that will change the feel depending on how you observe. Finally (sorry for all these!) I question whether the shape of the peak has been the same at Trowbridge and Bradford-on-Avon. 

Westbury is a significant park and ride station these days as well, and with the extended car park becomes more so.  If I live in Westbury Leigh or Frome, and have a car available to me, I'm likely to drive and park rather than rely on my far less frequent local train.

[DaveHarries]

My understanding is that the service will run every 30 minutes from Westbury to Avonmouth.

As someone who lives near to one of the Severn Beach line stations this is good news. What about services north of Avonmnouth towards Severn Beach though? It would be a bit silly not to increase that frequency as well seeing as the only other public transport in Severn Beach does not serve anywhere near the City Centre so better connections at Clifton Down for customers from Severn Beach would probably be no bad thing.

Will the extra trains from Bristol to Westbury call at all the stations?  At all WECA^» (West of England Combined Authority - about) stations then Westbury?  Keynsham, Oldfield Park, Bath Spa, then fast to Bradford-on-Avon, Trowbridge and Westbury?

Yes I think that an increase in services calling at Keynsham and Oldfield Park would be a good thing too

Either way I hope the increased frequency proves popular.

Dave

[grahame]

My understanding is that the service will run every 30 minutes from Westbury to Avonmouth.

As someone who lives near to one of the Severn Beach line stations this is good news. What about services north of Avonmnouth towards Severn Beach though? It would be a bit silly not to increase that frequency as well seeing as the only other public transport in Severn Beach does not serve anywhere near the City Centre so better connections at Clifton Down for customers from Severn Beach would probably be no bad thing.

Will the extra trains from Bristol to Westbury call at all the stations?  At all WECA^» (West of England Combined Authority - about) stations then Westbury?  Keynsham, Oldfield Park, Bath Spa, then fast to Bradford-on-Avon, Trowbridge and Westbury?

Yes I think that an increase in services calling at Keynsham and Oldfield Park would be a good thing too

Either way I hope the increased frequency proves popular.

Dave

Operationally, at a half hour interval and with Portway Parkway open, it seems to make logical sense for the trains to all run to Severn Beach.  And - unless a train were to lay over at Avonmouth for half an hour (PNB^▸ (Personal Needs Break)?) that looks like the most robust way, unless stops are skipped at Sea Mills or Shirehampton on alternate trains (those are the quietest 2 stations and a saving of 2 minutes each way would allow time to turn a train at Avonmouth - but I suspect I will get howls of protest about this NOT being about to happen!)

Off Temple Meads at :05, crossing at :20 at Clifton Down and at Avonmouth at :35, arriving The Beach at :45
From The Beach at :55, crossing at Avonmouth at :05 and at Clifton Down at :20, arriving Temple Meads at :35

Off Temple Meads at :35, crossing at :50 at Clifton Down and at Avonmouth at :05, arriving The Beach at :15
From The Beach at :25, crossing at Avonmouth at :35 and at Clifton Down at :50, arriving Temple Meads at :05

Off Temple Meads something like
:00 - London Train
:10 - Westbury (not Avoncliff?)
:22 - Portsmouth (Bath, B-o-A, Trowbridge)
:30 - London Train
:40 - Westbury (not Freshford?)
:52 - Waterloo (in the hours it runs)
BUT that does bring two trains into Westbury quite close to each other; logic may then be to pause the :10 at Westbury before carrying on via Frome after the :22 has called - giving both a faster connection and a through train there each hour, and carrying on the :40 to Dilton Marsh and Warminster, giving Warminster pretty close to a half hourly service from Bath Spa.

[DaveHarries]

Operationally, at a half hour interval and with Portway Parkway open, it seems to make logical sense for the trains to all run to Severn Beach.  And - unless a train were to lay over at Avonmouth for half an hour (PNB^▸ (Personal Needs Break)?) that looks like the most robust way, unless stops are skipped at Sea Mills or Shirehampton on alternate trains (those are the quietest 2 stations and a saving of 2 minutes each way would allow time to turn a train at Avonmouth - but I suspect I will get howls of protest about this NOT being about to happen!)

Off Temple Meads at :05, crossing at :20 at Clifton Down and at Avonmouth at :35, arriving The Beach at :45
From The Beach at :55, crossing at Avonmouth at :05 and at Clifton Down at :20, arriving Temple Meads at :35

Off Temple Meads at :35, crossing at :50 at Clifton Down and at Avonmouth at :05, arriving The Beach at :15
From The Beach at :25, crossing at Avonmouth at :35 and at Clifton Down at :50, arriving Temple Meads at :05

Sounds fine to me. My thought on what to do with the spare unit would be:

1. Run it fast to Filton West Jcn (initially: calls at Henbury could be added later if that station gets built) where it would turn right for Filton Abbey Wood to call at Platform 1 (good for commuters to the M.O.D and may thus encourage more use of the Portway P&R^▸ (Park and Ride)) where the signalling - which is bi-directional - would permit trains to reverse to head to Bristol Parkway. Similarly trains from Parkway can also use Platform 1 at Filton Abbey Wood to head to Avonmouth.

2. Trains arriving at Filton Abbey Wood from Avonmouth could terminate at Platform 1 and then become trains for Weston-super-Mare. Similarly trains from Weston-super-Mare to Filton Abbey Wood could terminate in Platform 4 at Abbey Wood and then become trains for Temple Meads via. Avonmouth.

Would work quite well I would think.

Dave