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Author Topic: "Climate campaigners should block road-building not HS2"  (Read 23288 times)
grahame
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« on: January 30, 2021, 09:08:57 »

From Left Foot forward

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Climate campaigners should block road-building not HS2 (The next High Speed line(s))

From within the article

London’s Euston Square Gardens is now home to a new generation of burrowing protestors opposing a new electrified railway line. For me, as a railway engineer, environmentalist and socialist, this is baffling.

Transport is the UK (United Kingdom)’s biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions and, whilst there are lots of underlying reasons for this, fundamentally it is because too many people/things use road transport.

This has only become more true as COVID has altered travel patterns – peak road usage exceeded 2019 levels in 2020, despite many people working from home or being furloughed.

We need rail to absorb a hefty amount of traffic: in fact, even with overall travel reducing, we will need rail to double its capacity by the middle of the century.

By segregating high speed trains onto their own line, you untangle the complex mixture of slow and fast services that currently constrain capacity, allowing the remaining services to bunch up more closely together.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2021, 10:16:06 by grahame » Logged

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TaplowGreen
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« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2021, 10:26:39 »

From Left Foot forward

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Climate campaigners should block road-building not HS2 (The next High Speed line(s))

From within the article

London’s Euston Square Gardens is now home to a new generation of burrowing protestors opposing a new electrified railway line. For me, as a railway engineer, environmentalist and socialist, this is baffling.

Transport is the UK (United Kingdom)’s biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions and, whilst there are lots of underlying reasons for this, fundamentally it is because too many people/things use road transport.

This has only become more true as COVID has altered travel patterns – peak road usage exceeded 2019 levels in 2020, despite many people working from home or being furloughed.

We need rail to absorb a hefty amount of traffic: in fact, even with overall travel reducing, we will need rail to double its capacity by the middle of the century.

By segregating high speed trains onto their own line, you untangle the complex mixture of slow and fast services that currently constrain capacity, allowing the remaining services to bunch up more closely together.


I suspect the more committed campaigners such as these protest against environmental damage caused by road building, airport expansion and railway construction alike.

Whilst I can admire their commitment, their methods in this particular case are dangerous and moronic - others will have to put their lives at risk to extract them from the tunnels they've constructed should there be a collapse.

I was quite surprised that the author felt it necessary to emphasise his socialist credentials, but then I guess he is writing in "Left foot forward"! 

One thing that can be said for the Coffee Shop, a wide range of publications get cited - everything from the Morning Star to the Mail!  Smiley
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broadgage
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« Reply #2 on: January 30, 2021, 14:01:38 »

I agree that road building and road "improvements" should be the target of the protesters rather than the relatively much less harmful rail projects.
There is a generaly held view among anti HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) protesters that it is a "very expensive way for a few rich people to travel a bit quicker" and that the new line wont be available to "ordinary people"
Such views completly ignore the fact that the line is as much about capacity as speed, and that the existing route is full, at least in the southern parts. Moving the longer distance passengers to the new line will free up capacity for more freight and local passengers.

I also suspect that some protesters are opposed to anything innvolving building anything and that they are the latest re-incarnation of the various anti capitalist groups, stop the city groups, and the like.

SOME protesters are genuinely concerned at climate change, but others regard it as a means to an end which is to stop to stop capitalists building anything.

"Save Exmoor" from wind turbines.
"Save Goring gap" from those terrible mast things, AKA (also known as) railway electrification.
"Save the Bristol Channel" from tidal energy schemes.
"Save our communities" from 5G masts that make children sick.
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JayMac
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« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2021, 17:42:45 »

There is a generaly held view among anti HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) protesters that it is a "very expensive way for a few rich people to travel a bit quicker" and that the new line wont be available to "ordinary people"
Such views completly ignore the fact that the line is as much about capacity as speed, and that the existing route is full, at least in the southern parts. Moving the longer distance passengers to the new line will free up capacity for more freight and local passengers.


Why would you need to free up capacity for freight when only 50% of the allocated freight paths on the southern WCML (West Coast Main Line) are currently used?

The 'speed for rich people' argument may well be overstated by some anti-HS2 campaigners. However, pro-HS2 campaigners are not averse to overstating the supposed capacity constraints too.

https://citymonitor.ai/transport/no-high-speed-2-isn-t-really-about-capacity-3437

I'm not bothered by the environmental impact of building railway lines, where needed. But, I remain of the opinion that HS2 is an expensive vanity project, the benefits of which have be overstated by its supporters.
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Robin Summerhill
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« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2021, 18:58:46 »

I remain of the opinion that HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) is an expensive vanity project, the benefits of which have be overstated by its supporters.

The problem with that line of reasoning is that it applied to virtually every railway that was ever built in the UK (United Kingdom).

If you look at the matter in terms of "vanity prohcts," Brunel was not averse to the odd vanity project such as the Great Eastern steamship, the Great Western Railway, the broad gauge, the Atmospheric railway and even Clifton Suspension bridge. Some were economic catastrophes virtually from the outset and some were found wanting with the benefit of hindsight or the vagaries of economics and history.

And how many small independent railways went bankrupt or were bought out by larger railways before they ever ran a train? I can think of a fair few.



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ellendune
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« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2021, 19:20:33 »

Why would you need to free up capacity for freight when only 50% of the allocated freight paths on the southern WCML (West Coast Main Line) are currently used?

Because we need a massive modal shift of freight from road to rail if we are to meet our climate change targets. 
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Rhydgaled
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« Reply #6 on: January 30, 2021, 22:28:51 »

I agree that road building and road "improvements" should be the target of the protesters rather than the relatively much less harmful rail projects.
There is a generaly held view among anti HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) protesters that it is a "very expensive way for a few rich people to travel a bit quicker" and that the new line wont be available to "ordinary people"
Such views completly ignore the fact that the line is as much about capacity as speed, and that the existing route is full, at least in the southern parts. Moving the longer distance passengers to the new line will free up capacity for more freight and local passengers.

I also suspect that some protesters are opposed to anything innvolving building anything and that they are the latest re-incarnation of the various anti capitalist groups, stop the city groups, and the like.

SOME protesters are genuinely concerned at climate change, but others regard it as a means to an end which is to stop to stop capitalists building anything.

"Save Exmoor" from wind turbines.
"Save Goring gap" from those terrible mast things, AKA (also known as) railway electrification.
"Save the Bristol Channel" from tidal energy schemes.
"Save our communities" from 5G masts that make children sick.
I'm on the fence here:
  • I think some areas of natural beauty (Exmoor may be one) should be protected from wind turbines, but am generally in favour of (aesthetically -designed) wind turbines
  • I think the GWML (Great Western Main Line) electrification was terribly designed, and given the choice I may have campaigned for a very different design
  • I think the main reason for decarbonisation comes from a moral duty to protect biodiversity, and as a result destroying large areas of important wildlife habitat to do so is counter-productive, so I am not in favour of a barrage but think other tidal projects (tidal stream turbines and possibly lagoons) should go ahead
  • I can't see the point in 5G; it just seems to be a ruse to sell more 'stuff' - in this case phones - people already have phones so how do we make them buy more? I know, we'll launch a fancy new network so they need to buy a new phone to be able to use it, even though it just does much the same stuff as 4G (and 3G before that)

From what I've seen, there's a strong case for saying that Climate Campaigners should block road-building AND HS2. But certainly, they should not be objecting only to HS2; road-building is far worse. It appears that, once built, HS2 will contribute to the UK (United Kingdom) releasing a small amount less GHG (Greenhouse gas) each year than if HS2 didn't exist (whereas a road road would almost certainly lead to greater emissions). The problem is that constrution of HS2 will have a massive GHG impact which will never be offset, certainly not by 2050. I can't see a right answer here; we need HS2 to reduce transport emissions (think of it as the 'revenue budget' of carbon), but it will have a massive ('capital') impact on our carbon budget in the short term which appears to outway the 'revenue budget' saving.
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JayMac
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« Reply #7 on: January 31, 2021, 03:15:48 »

I remain of the opinion that HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) is an expensive vanity project, the benefits of which have be overstated by its supporters.

The problem with that line of reasoning is that it applied to virtually every railway that was ever built in the UK (United Kingdom)

So, we just carry on repeating the mistakes of the past?
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Robin Summerhill
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« Reply #8 on: January 31, 2021, 11:46:52 »

I remain of the opinion that HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) is an expensive vanity project, the benefits of which have be overstated by its supporters.

The problem with that line of reasoning is that it applied to virtually every railway that was ever built in the UK (United Kingdom)

So, we just carry on repeating the mistakes of the past?

Good answer  Grin

The point I was making, albeit as usual not very well in the first post on a subject, is that the only difference between someone proposing a vanity project and a visionary is in the perception of the commentator. It is one of that small selection of phrases that seeks to shut down debate by implying an absolute truth and only queried by those not sufficiently informed to the see the underlying wisdom. “Project Fear” is another good example.

I have no problem at all with any projects being criticised as long as those critics have facts to back up their position. There are certainly counter-arguments against HS2 but from the evidence I have seen suggests that the benefits outweigh them. Others will of course have their own opinions.

But to get back to “that phrase” can anyone tell me whose vanity project it is? Contenders may include David Cameron (although I suspect he’ll go down in history for something else...); Andrew Adonis who I doubt will get more than a footnote in history if mentioned at all; or perhaps the UK in general. If the latter is the case then the Japanese opened their first similar vanity project in 1964 and today the rest of Europe is covered in similar vanity projects.

So there are plenty of these vanity projects around. I wonder why all those other countries have not seen the light in the same way as a section of the UK population has? Clearly they are all out of step except us...
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TaplowGreen
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« Reply #9 on: January 31, 2021, 16:27:18 »

I remain of the opinion that HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) is an expensive vanity project, the benefits of which have be overstated by its supporters.

The problem with that line of reasoning is that it applied to virtually every railway that was ever built in the UK (United Kingdom)

So, we just carry on repeating the mistakes of the past?

Good answer  Grin

The point I was making, albeit as usual not very well in the first post on a subject, is that the only difference between someone proposing a vanity project and a visionary is in the perception of the commentator. It is one of that small selection of phrases that seeks to shut down debate by implying an absolute truth and only queried by those not sufficiently informed to the see the underlying wisdom. “Project Fear” is another good example.

I have no problem at all with any projects being criticised as long as those critics have facts to back up their position. There are certainly counter-arguments against HS2 but from the evidence I have seen suggests that the benefits outweigh them. Others will of course have their own opinions.

But to get back to “that phrase” can anyone tell me whose vanity project it is? Contenders may include David Cameron (although I suspect he’ll go down in history for something else...); Andrew Adonis who I doubt will get more than a footnote in history if mentioned at all; or perhaps the UK in general. If the latter is the case then the Japanese opened their first similar vanity project in 1964 and today the rest of Europe is covered in similar vanity projects.

So there are plenty of these vanity projects around. I wonder why all those other countries have not seen the light in the same way as a section of the UK population has? Clearly they are all out of step except us...


Here are some "counter arguments", which may well serve to back up the critics position.

1. The most recent independent reviews, using recognised BCR (Benefit Cost Ratio) methodology, rank HS2 as a poor value project (IOG 2020)
2. The estimated cost is now well over £100 billion, over 3 times the original estimate, it is fair to assume that it will rise even higher.
3. There are strong suggestions that Parliament was misled over the true cost.
3. Public support for the project is falling - only roughly 25% are positive about it (YOUgov 2020)
4. It's already being re-scoped, which weakens the value case further.
5. It is likely that demand for Business travel by rail will fall considerably post COVID.
6. The Infrastructure and Projects Authority (July 2020) have downgraded the likelihood of successful delivery to red, meaning "Successful delivery of the project appears to be unachievable. There are major issues with project definition, schedule, budget, quality and/or benefits delivery, which at this stage do not appear to be manageable or resolvable. The project may need re-scoping and/or its overall viability reassessed."


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« Reply #10 on: January 31, 2021, 21:00:05 »

I'd probably be a bit more supportive if building started in the North or even Scotland. At the moment it feels that whatever the benefits for freight and capacity its probably just going to suck more people into commuting into London. I also suspect some of the Northern bits won't ever happen.

As for 5G I think the challenges many people have had working from home with partners working as well and kids playing video games and watching 4K content do suggest that we need to invest in infrastructure. It would be nice if it was a bit more even though and I could get more than 1MB where I am in rural Wales. We've only just come in reach of 4G so 5G seems unlikely but I can see the argument for it.

One example in the media where I work is that we've been able to replace an outside broadcast truck with a people carrier and so on and eventually getting to the point where bonded SIMs in cameras are all that's needed for some situations. 5G only improves that.

 
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TonyK
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« Reply #11 on: February 01, 2021, 11:24:55 »


1. The most recent independent reviews, using recognised BCR (Benefit Cost Ratio) methodology, rank HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) as a poor value project (IOG 2020)


As they did with Amazon when it was first launched.

I'm on the fence here:
  • I think some areas of natural beauty (Exmoor may be one) should be protected from wind turbines, but am generally in favour of (aesthetically -designed) wind turbines
  • I think the GWML (Great Western Main Line) electrification was terribly designed, and given the choice I may have campaigned for a very different design
  • I think the main reason for decarbonisation comes from a moral duty to protect biodiversity, and as a result destroying large areas of important wildlife habitat to do so is counter-productive, so I am not in favour of a barrage but think other tidal projects (tidal stream turbines and possibly lagoons) should go ahead
  • I can't see the point in 5G; it just seems to be a ruse to sell more 'stuff' - in this case phones - people already have phones so how do we make them buy more? I know, we'll launch a fancy new network so they need to buy a new phone to be able to use it, even though it just does much the same stuff as 4G (and 3G before that)

Full disclosure time - I have owned a home adjacent to Exmoor for 15 years (and will do for three more weeks). It, and other wild places, should be protected from wind farms. You would struggle to get permission to build something the size of a garden shed on Exmoor, but a 300' tall structure with blades that occasionally turn set in many many tonnes of concrete seems worth asking for. Long before I bought my place, my opinion had changed from thinking what wonderful things wind turbines were to seeing them as a threat to the countryside, far outweighing any perceived benefit. I'm not entirely convinced that sticking them in the sea is entirely environmentally sound, too, but they cause fewer complaints, so carry on. I struggle to imagine what an aesthetically designed wind turbine would look like, but as Spike Milligan said "Beauty is in the eye of the beholder - get it out with Optrex".

I'll skip the next two. The benefits of 5G are said to lie in the vastly greater ability to transmit information, giving rise to self-driving cars, smarter  use of energy, and a lot more things other than more cat videos on Facebook. It could be one of those changes that leaves us wondering how we ever managed before, but I am not that good at predicting the past, let alone the future.
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« Reply #12 on: February 01, 2021, 13:18:30 »

Why would you need to free up capacity for freight when only 50% of the allocated freight paths on the southern WCML (West Coast Main Line) are currently used?

Because we need a massive modal shift of freight from road to rail if we are to meet our climate change targets. 

We may not. In the timescale of HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) there will be widespread use of battery HGVs.

In the same timescale, further renewable energy generation will come on stream, as well as mass storage technologies and V2G for said electricity. The UK (United Kingdom)'s first battery storage site should be running by 2024 with capacity to release 640Mwh to the grid. Not a huge amount, but it is only the first of many such plants. Development of other storage technologies continues apace.

With eHGVs and electric buses and coaches taking to the roads in the next couple of decades the railways nationwide will have to adapt. £100bn+ (and rising) would go a long way toward greater OLE (Overhead Line Equipment, more often "OHLE") and battery electrification for the whole rail network. Rather that than spending it on one high speed line.

I think the UK has missed the boat on high speed rail. It is something we should have been persuing decades ago. Plus, we don't have the greater distances to travel by rail that other countries with established high speed rail services have. Line speed and rolling stock upgrading of the ECML (East Coast Main Line) and WCML should have continued.

So, the only reason I can think of for having HS2 now, is to say we have HS2. Vanity.
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« Reply #13 on: February 01, 2021, 13:39:22 »

Whilst very aware that those who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones, aren't we drifting here? This topic is specifically about the merits of protesting against road building as opposed to HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)). For the purposes of keeping things together, isn't this thread:

http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=5138.msg301174#msg301174

a better place for the pros and cons of HS2?
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TonyK
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« Reply #14 on: February 01, 2021, 13:48:54 »

Whilst very aware that those who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones, aren't we drifting here? This topic is specifically about the merits of protesting against road building as opposed to HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)). For the purposes of keeping things together, isn't this thread:

http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=5138.msg301174#msg301174

a better place for the pros and cons of HS2?

I agree. It is worth discussing traffic generally in this context though, because even a lorry powered by fairy dust would still need a road. Someone has to decide whether we ship goods around the country in lorries 30 tonnes at a time, or by rail at many times that rate. It would also be relevant to think that when all road traffic is free of noxious exhaust fumes, we may find it easier to quantify the harm being done by brake and tyre particulate matter in the atmosphere.
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