South Western Railways Waterloo - Bristol services axed

[whole diary]

[broadgage]

I thought the SWT^▸ (South West Trains) trains weren’t being withdrawn until December? Likely the IEPs^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) will be sorted by then

Depends what you mean by "sorted" really. Until they are reassigned to regional routes where they belong, and replaced by proper "express" trains on "express" routes, then they wont be "sorted" in my book.

Careful now, or you will be mistaken for me

[Mark A]

I thought the SWT^▸ (South West Trains) trains weren’t being withdrawn until December? Likely the IEPs^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) will be sorted by then

Given that in July this year, a third location prone to issues was discovered, and that a decision on the repair process is not yet settled and is 'Likely to be taken in September', and each repair removes a vehicle from service for a day, it's difficult to see how the issue with cracking will not continue to cause stock shortages well into 2022 and possibly 2023, with a hit to GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) stock availability until it's sorted.

For this reason alone, this is not the time for DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) to decide to remove popular through trains from a usually reliable and accessible secondary route. The current reliability of the IEPs would have been one of a number of issues that would have been raised had anyone bothered to ask the travelling public before deciding to introduce the need to change trains, which is why the DfT along with the industry appears to have managed this decision with the intention of avoiding consultation on this.

Hiding the decision within the announcement of the much more wide-reaching consultation for the 2022 SWR^» (South Western Railway - about) timetable appears to have been very effective, as even the specialised railway press missed this smaller issue - add covid, and, of course, local journalism being not in the position that it was in, say, 2006 - and the result is that an entire train service is considered lost before the decision is made public.

[broadgage]

I thought the SWT^▸ (South West Trains) trains weren’t being withdrawn until December? Likely the IEPs^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) will be sorted by then

Do you REALLY expect that the cracked or otherwise not available IETs^▸ (Intercity Express Train) will be restored to working order by December this year.
I doubt that full reliability will be achieved by NEXT December.
There are now THREE lots of cracks, so far.

[Mark A]

OK, to their credit, South Western Railways responded quickly to my request for information and this can now feed a request for a response or preferably action from Passenger Focus.

My MP^▸ (Member of Parliament)'s now had a reply about this from the Secretary of State for Transport.

Having sent the TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company)'s response to them, I'm now waiting for Transport Focus's reply.

[ChrisB]

What did the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) say to your MP^▸ (Member of Parliament)?

[Mark A]

In answer to my letter to the MP^▸ (Member of Parliament), a response from the Secretary of State for Transport over a page and a half of A4.

Paraphrasing it, SWR^» (South Western Railway - about) having been heavily subsidised since covid + current forecasts not predicting that customers will return to rail for some time, the train operating company has been looking for opportunities to improve efficiency and value for money to the taxpayer, also to improve reliability and performance of the timetable by reducing congestion in key areas of the network.

As a result SWR has looked into areas where train services are duplicated... and identified potential reductions that will deliver improved reliability and will reduce costs.

This has led to the decision to withdraw services to Bristol in December 2021. He mentions that only three stations will lose direct trains to London (I think there are four, if he's overlooked Keynsham but I can't recall if GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) provide a direct service from Keynsham). In this, he's failed to acknowledge that Waterloo and Paddington from the point of view of users of this service are two separate destinations.

He then continues with a consideration of the currently hourly service between Bristol and Salisbury, stating that this is to return to half hourly from December and then states

"All stations will also have services connecting directly into GWR’s services from Bristol and Bath into London Paddington, which run twice per hour throughout the day."

- which perhaps will not be the case on Sundays, a day that's previously seen the Waterloo direct services load particularly healthily.

He concludes with noting that "While SWR regrets that customers from *cites the three stations* will now have to change... "this decision will reduce congestion on the lines, remove duplication of services and improve overall value to the taxpayer".

*   *   *   *   *   

Given that this is the Department for Transport, it's the initial response I expected. I'm concerned for the railways that the Department for Transport can field this response for a rail service of which there's anecdotal evidence that on occasion during June and July has recovered to the extent that its trains been loading the two carriage provision full and standing throughout its route.

An effective way to cut passenger numbers is take a through train and insert the need for passengers to change trains: this *will* hit income as well as remove costs.

Once I've received more from Transport Focus, I'll reply.

[ChrisB]

I think you are over-egging the loss of customers when forced to change to complete a journey. I think it depends vastly on the convenience of the change. A few minutes (barely at all), while 20+ minutes could achieve what you are suggesting.

[Mark A]

I'm looking for some figures on passenger willingness to use the London Underground at the present time.

Yougov ran a survey from April '21 that found around 50% Londoners had reservations about using the tube.

This has a bearing on the potential that some for the time being may prefer Waterloo as a London terminal especially if their ultimate destination is served by the large slew of surface railways served from Waterloo / Waterloo east / London Victoria and again may imply that through trains from Bristol might be precisely the sort of services that returning travellers will look to the railways to provide - at the moment they are discontinued.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/economy/articles-reports/2021/05/13/half-londoners-feel-uncomfortable-travelling-tube-

[Mark A]

I think you are over-egging the loss of customers when forced to change to complete a journey. I think it depends vastly on the convenience of the change. A few minutes (barely at all), while 20+ minutes could achieve what you are suggesting.

A change at Salisbury will certainly provide somewhat unstable connection times, often in the 45+ minute range - and in the down direction the traveller may find that the train into which they connect is rammed. It's one of the reasons the through trains are valued.

Presumably people who work with timetables have data on connection times vs income and it would be lovely if this data were public.

[ChrisB]

This has a bearing on the potential that some for the time being may prefer Waterloo as a London terminal especially if their ultimate destination is served by the large slew of surface railways served from Waterloo / Waterloo east / London Victoria and again may imply that through trains from Bristol might be precisely the sort of services that returning travellers will look to the railways to provide - at the moment they are discontinued.

That really is a minor irritation as many arriving at Paddington would feel the same. Thus no difference whether arriving at either station bearing in mind that 90% of passengers want to go further than the local environs of either station.

[Mark A]

That really is a minor irritation as many arriving at Paddington would feel the same. Thus no difference whether arriving at either station bearing in mind that 90% of passengers want to go further than the local environs of either station.

What I meant is that in addition to Waterloo being a strong destination that stands in its own right, in a time of an ongoing pandemic, these services  allow people to avoid using the Underground. In April, 50% of Londoners had reservations about using the Underground: it would be good to know how that figure has changed and also, for people not from London, how prepared they are to take the tube as part of a through trip. I'd suspect the figure would be higher.

[grahame]

Here are the almost-clockface trains in each hour - from December 2019 - Waterloo to Salisbury and Salisbury to Cardiff - first column is regional / expresses, second column is the "stopper" service. At present, the Salisbury to Waterloo stopper service terminates at Basingstoke (13:31 in my example) - next fast London train 3 minutes later or nearly 30 minutes for the one that's come from Salibury anyway!

WAT	11:20	(11:50)
SAL a	12:43	(13:20)
SAL d	13:42	-
WMN» (Warminster - next trains)	14:01	-
WSB» (Westbury - next trains)	14:10	13:40
TRO» (Trowbridge - next trains)	14:17	13:47
BOA	14:23	13:53
BTH» (Bath Spa - next trains)	14:35	14:09
BRI» (Bristol Temple Meads - next trains) a	14:49	14:30
CDF» (Cardiff - next trains) a	15:44	-

CDF d	10:30	-
BRI d	11:22	11:47
BTH	11:36	12:02
BOA	11:47	12:21
TRO	11:54	12:27
WSB	12:02	12:34
WMN	12:11	-
SAL a	12:30	-
SAL d	13:21	(12:47)
WAT	14:49	(14:19)

So Salisbury on current operation is NOT a practical connection - 59 minute wait in one direction and 51 minute wait in the other.  Quite apart from people REALLY not liking to change in the middle of a journey, especially between services which at present have a very high cancellation / short running record.

Other trains run south of Westbury towards Salisbury - some only as far as Warminster. Those that reach Salisbury connect somewhat better towards London (couldn't really be any worse!). These extras a far from clockface - some hours have two services, other hours none - and only a very few run from Bristol - others are from Yeovil, or Swindon, or start at Westbury.  Whilst there are instances where local trains from Bristol connect into these extras, with a change at Westbury too making two changes to get to Waterloo is enough to put anyone (except passengers with dogs who want to take them out of the station at each change for a wee break) off.

If you retime EITHER regular hourly service, you break the excellent Portsmouth to Exeter and Exeter to Portsmouth connections - robbing Peter to pay Paul.   Quite apart from hosts of other things that need changing all along the way!

[Timmer]

He then continues with a consideration of the currently hourly service between Bristol and Salisbury, stating that this is to return to half hourly from December

Since when has Bristol to Salisbury been half hourly? I must have missed that.

Looking forward to seeing GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway)’s December timetable that shows you can get a train every 30 minutes between Bristol and Salisbury 

[grahame]

In answer to my letter to the MP^▸ (Member of Parliament), a response from the Secretary of State for Transport over a page and a half of A4.

He then continues with a consideration of the currently hourly service between Bristol and Salisbury, stating that this is to return to half hourly from December and then states ...

Err - it never was half hourly.  It could be - Westbury to Salisbury should be half hourly, clockface, second train calling at Dilton Marsh and coming from Bristol or Swindon or alternating, and not a Westbury starter (except at start of service).

"While SWR^» (South Western Railway - about) regrets that customers from *cites the three stations* will now have to change... "

Keynsham, Oldfield Park, Bradford-on-Avon and Trowbridge I can think of. There may be the occasional GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) service between Keynsham and London Paddington, but timed to provide peak relief into Bristol in the a.m. peak and perhaps (is there one?) in the evening the other way.  Warminster WILL have a much reduced direct London service - the ones that run from Yeovil via Westbury, at staff training times rather than when passengers want to travel.  Opportunities from Dilton Marsh (where SWR SHOULD stop), Freshford and Avoncliff (incidental - not a major business case!) too.

As a result SWR has looked into areas where train services are duplicated... and identified potential reductions that will deliver improved reliability and will reduce costs.

I think I smell blame being passed for an unpopular and unconsulted decision. I suspect SWR was ordered to take this look.

[ChrisB]

Of course it was, the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) are now in charge & TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company) do as they’re told