Train GraphicClick on the map to explore geographics
 
End of through trains
Bristol to Waterloo?

 
Please sign our petition
(more information)
 
Meeting, 20.10.2021, 19:00
Report here
Travel & transport from BBC stories as at 13:55 24 Oct 2021
- Covid: Travellers now able to use cheaper Covid tests
Read about the forum [here].
Register [here] - it's free.
What do I gain from registering? [here]
 27/10/21 - Railfuture on Cirencester
20/11/21 - Railfuture on Saltford
09/12/21 - Award Event - CRN
08/03/22 - WWRUG AGM - B-o-A
Random Image
Train RunningCancelled
11:50 Penzance to Exeter St Davids
13:15 Par to Newquay
14:15 Newquay to Par
15:51 Bristol Temple Meads to Taunton
16:15 Par to Newquay
17:16 Taunton to Bristol Temple Meads
17:55 Newquay to Par
18:30 London Paddington to Weston-Super-Mare
21:05 Weston-Super-Mare to Bristol Temple Meads
21:37 Penzance to Plymouth
Short Run
08:51 London Paddington to Penzance
21:30 Swindon to Cheltenham Spa
Abbreviation pageAcronymns and abbreviations
Stn ComparatorStation Comparator
Rail newsNews Now - live rail news feed
Site Style 1 2 3 4
Next departures • Bristol Temple MeadsBath SpaChippenhamSwindonDidcot ParkwayReadingLondon PaddingtonMelksham
Exeter St DavidsTauntonWestburyTrowbridgeBristol ParkwayCardiff CentralOxfordCheltenham SpaBirmingham New Street
October 24, 2021, 01:56:12 pm *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Forgotten your username or password? - get a reminder
Most recently liked subjects
[161] Priority bus route Bristol to Bath
[101] What is a reasonable connection?
[94] 2021 - TransWilts cancellation and amendment log
[71] The passengers are BACK!
[67] lumo. FirstGroup's open access operation on ECML
[34] South Western Railways Waterloo - Bristol services axed
News: A forum for passengers ... with input from rail professionals welcomed too
 
   Home   Help Search Calendar Login Register  
Pages: [1]
  Print  
Author Topic: Delayed report gives smart motorway negative benefit cost ratio  (Read 802 times)
ellendune
Transport Scholar
Hero Member
******
Posts: 4017


View Profile
« on: September 08, 2021, 01:06:19 pm »

Not sure if this is the right place to post but...

From Highways Magazine Delayed report gives smart motorway negative benefit cost ratio

Quote
National Highways has been forced to release two key reports on smart motorways following a Freedom of Information request from Highways.

These include a five-year post opening project evaluation that showed that a scheme on the M1 is on track to have negative journey time benefits of nearly a quarter of a billion pounds over 60 years rather than forecast benefits of nearly £1bn.

Overall, the scheme is forecast to have a benefit cost ratio of minus 0.8, compared with a forecast of 1.4, meaning that the scheme is making things worse in terms of monetised benefits while in operation.

It reports that a review of the smart motorway work on the M1 Junctions 10 to 13 completed in 2012, found that instead of the predicted Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR (Benefit Cost Ratio)) of 1.4 it had a BCR of -0.8 meaning that there were negative benefits.   

Perhaps this will cause a rethink as the roads lobby tries to defend such projects. 

Edit: Minus inserted before 0.8
« Last Edit: September 09, 2021, 02:02:01 pm by rogerw » Logged
ChrisB
Transport Scholar
Hero Member
******
Posts: 10599


View Profile Email
« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2021, 11:55:35 am »

MINUS 0.8…..
Logged
Witham Bobby
Transport Scholar
Sr. Member
******
Posts: 274



View Profile
« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2021, 12:48:24 pm »

Massively surprised.  Not.

My real objection to these schemes where the hard-shoulder of a motorway is permanently changed to a running lane is that of safety.  I had a very nasty surprise when a turbo of the car I was driving blew-up on one such stretch of the Nottinghamshire M1.  It was not a pleasant experience.  Fortunately I managed to limp the car to Trowell Services. I really didn't fancy the idea of stopping in a live traffic lane.
Logged
grahame
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 34662



View Profile WWW Email
« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2021, 12:52:14 pm »

MINUS 0.8…..

So let me see

1.4 - for every £100 spent, £140 comes back in benefit - FORECAST
0.8 - for every £100 spent, there is only £80 back in benefit
-0.8 - for every £100 spent, there is an additional cost of £80 - spending made it worse - ACTUAL
Logged

Coffee Shop Admin, Vice Chair of Melksham Rail User Group, and on the board of TravelWatch SouthWest.
didcotdean
Transport Scholar
Hero Member
******
Posts: 1308


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2021, 02:26:38 pm »

Having looked at the full report the negative result mainly arises from journey time impairment on the benefits side but this has been impacted by dynamic hard shoulder schemes having a maximum speed of 60mph when the hard shoulder lane is in operation as opposed to all lane running schemes where this is 70mph.

Also much of the increase in capacity has been eaten into by taking additional traffic, which wasn't taken into account on the benefit side, ie considering what the situation would be if the previous three lanes were carrying the current amount of vehicles.
Logged
Rhydgaled
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1471


View Profile WWW
« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2021, 01:17:39 pm »

Is there any point trying to calculate the BCR (Benefit Cost Ratio) for any scheme? If it comes out fairly low, for a scheme proposed from outside, the Government can say that's not high enough to be worthwhile, and if it's a Government scheme they just ignore it and go ahead anyway.

Just before the last election, outgoing Welsh Government transport minister (Ken Skates) ordered that two sections of the A40 in Pembrokeshire should be diverted and increased from the current single-carriageway to 2+1 standard. A single construction contract has now been let and enacted on behalf of the Welsh Ministers for both sections under the current Welsh Government. The predicted Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) for these schemes was as follows:
  • Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin improvement - BCR = 0.13
  • Penblewin to Redstone Cross improvement - BCR = 0.27
However, in both cases they said the BCR would improve substatially (though still less than one) if the speed limit on the existing road was lower. This illustrates that journey time savings for motorists are still considered to be a benefit. I would argue that, since time savings for motorists makes the car relatively more attractive than public transport compared to the current suituation they should be counted as a disbenefit.
Logged

----------------------------
Don't DOO (Driver-Only Operation (that is, trains which operate without carrying a guard)) it, keep the guard (but it probably wouldn't be a bad idea if the driver unlocked the doors on arrival at calling points).
Do you have something you would like to add to this thread, or would you like to raise a new question at the Coffee Shop? Please [register] (it is free) if you have not done so before, or login (at the top of this page) if you already have an account - we would love to read what you have to say!

You can find out more about how this forum works [here] - that will link you to a copy of the forum agreement that you can read before you join, and tell you very much more about how we operate. We are an independent forum, provided and run by customers of Great Western Railway, for customers of Great Western Railway and we welcome railway professionals as members too, in either a personal or official capacity. Views expressed in posts are not necessarily the views of the operators of the forum.

As well as posting messages onto existing threads, and starting new subjects, members can communicate with each other through personal messages if they wish. And once members have made a certain number of posts, they will automatically be admitted to the "frequent posters club", where subjects not-for-public-domain are discussed; anything from the occasional rant to meetups we may be having ...

 
Pages: [1]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.2 | SMF © 2006-2007, Simple Machines LLC Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
This forum is provided by a customer of Great Western Railway (formerly First Great Western), and the views expressed are those of the individual posters concerned. Visit www.gwr.com for the official Great Western Railway website. Please contact the administrators of this site if you feel that the content provided by one of our posters contravenes our posting rules (email link). Forum hosted by Well House Consultants

Jump to top of pageJump to Forum Home Page