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Author Topic: Looking ahead - the industry's prognosis / December 2022  (Read 3690 times)
grahame
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« on: December 26, 2022, 11:28:17 »

From the Railway Gazette (a free subscription URL. I have a copy for archive as there is some key stuff in there.

Quote
UK (United Kingdom): Rail Business UK has taken soundings from across the train operating companies, Network Rail and from sources close to the Department for Transport, finding a bleak outlook. Industry leaders fear having to implement stark cuts to rail provision, even if the industrial relations issues plaguing the sector can be resolved.

Just over a year ago when Rail Business UK surveyed the UK rail sector’s senior management about the post-Covid outlook, there was a consensus that without action to drive forward reform, two decades of growing rail use could come to a jarring halt.

Today, 13 months on, the situation is much bleaker: industrial relations strife is paralysing much of the network, long-awaited plans to create a ‘guiding mind’ under Great British Railways are seemingly in abeyance, and train operators and Network Rail are wilting under unprecedented government micro- management.

[continues]

Here are some breakout quotes from further down the article.

Quote
’An operator has already offered to cease running trains on one route to save money’

Quote
’We might be at the point of losing more than we’ve gained’

Quote
‘We need permission for special offers, and there’s no permission’

Quote
‘Get used to permanently shorter train formations and overcrowded services’

and concluding

Quote
‘The industry has proposed rolling stock cascades, made possible under the NRCs, that would create a more cost-effective railway now we’re “all in this together”’, insists one manager. ‘We can create a more affordable, modern railway. But DfT» (Department for Transport - about) just tells us for months on end that they are still thinking about it, and these proposals go nowhere.’

There is an emerging view across the industry that Great British Railways may never make the transition from vision to reality, but this must not mean that overall reform stalls — assuming, of course, that the short-term imperative of resolving the various industrial disputes can be achieved.

‘There does have to be a commitment to long-term reform and restructure’, insists the industry leader. ‘Sensible decisions are needed, big changes are needed and big changes are planned. We just want to be allowed to get on with it.’
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« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2022, 20:14:28 »

One of the points raised in the Keith Williams Report back in 2018 was the slowness of the DfT» (Department for Transport - about) in making decisions
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« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2022, 20:55:15 »

"UK (United Kingdom) rail system described as ‘broken’ as 2022 data reveals extent of disruption"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/dec/26/great-britain-rail-system-dubbed-broken-as-years-data-reveals-extent-of-disruption
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« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2022, 00:09:42 »

Coincidentally, it is 40 years ago (1982) that the railway saw a major dispute over conditions - one of the primary issues being flexible rostering (i.e. variable length shifts). My diary logged 32 days on which ASLEF» (Associated Society of Locomotive Engineers and Firemen - about) were on strike; there were also a couple of days when NUR (forerunner of RMT (National Union of Rail, Maritime & Transport Workers)) strikes occurred.

Very few services operated when the ASLEF members were striking; I have a note on one day that only Manchester-Bury (now part of the Manchester tram network) was offering a full service.

The big contrast with 2022, however, was that, between strikes, the railway was offering a reliable service (albeit one with less trains in the timetable than now - and some poor connections as a consequence). There were a couple of line closures.

1982 marks a low point on the train passenger journeys graph. Following that, there were annual rises until 1988 (barring one year).
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grahame
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« Reply #4 on: December 28, 2022, 06:46:44 »

Coincidentally, it is 40 years ago (1982) that the railway saw a major dispute over conditions ...

The big contrast with 2022, however, was that, between strikes, the railway was offering a reliable service (albeit one with less trains in the timetable than now - and some poor connections as a consequence). There were a couple of line closures.

Nothing closed in 1982 itself.  In 1983, passenger services we lost were:
* Glasgow Cental via Corkerhill and Paisley Canal to Kilmacolm
* Elmers End to Sanderstead
* Branch to Claydon West
* Branch to Coulsdon North

Very few line losses in following years - by 1986 they were rather "special cases"
1984 - no lines with stations closed
1985 - Eridge to Tunbridge Wells (Central) was lost
1986 - we lost Dalston Junction to Broad Street, Balloch Pier and Manchester (Mayfield)
1987 - branches to Ardrossan (Winton Pier) and Weymouth Quay closed
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grahame
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« Reply #5 on: December 28, 2022, 10:17:46 »

From the (printed) I this morning, as reported by the BBC» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page)'s "in the papers"

Quote
Train strikes set to escalate as union plans daily walkouts

Thousands of rail workers will be balloted again on strike action under new tactic to increase the number of major walkouts across the transport network to ‘multiple’ consecutive days

Union leaders reveal plan to poll different groups of workers separately - allowing rolling strikes throughout the same week and causing maximum disruption to rail passengers

Transport Salaried Staffs’ Association warns of new phase of ‘mass impact’ walkouts after passengers’ travel plans are hit by latest RMT (National Union of Rail, Maritime & Transport Workers) strike action

Small business owners tell i of losing sales owing to Royal Mail strikes in lead-up to Christmas - as North East Ambulance Service declares critical incident for second time in nine days

Personal view - whatever the outcome, whoever wins (if any one does), it will be a Pyrrhic victory. And if there is no victor, we we will out with a kludge between the parties who are rail-positive with all of those parties, and thus rail, being significantly weakened.  Now is the time (no, actually, the time was 8 months ago) for all parties to come up with a solution they can all live with, and to work together on a rail strategy they can all work with over the next decade.

That's a personal view.  And it beggars the question "who and how can an agreement and strategy be brokered?" Either it needs someone or some group that is respected by all parties - or some new group or strong force that can quickly - very quickly - gain that respect, either from actions or from an overpowering public support.  Answer to "who and how" would be appreciated - blowed if I can see the answer, sadly.
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« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2022, 10:40:54 »

From the (printed) I this morning, as reported by the BBC» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page)'s "in the papers"

Quote
Train strikes set to escalate as union plans daily walkouts

Thousands of rail workers will be balloted again on strike action under new tactic to increase the number of major walkouts across the transport network to ‘multiple’ consecutive days

Union leaders reveal plan to poll different groups of workers separately - allowing rolling strikes throughout the same week and causing maximum disruption to rail passengers

Transport Salaried Staffs’ Association warns of new phase of ‘mass impact’ walkouts after passengers’ travel plans are hit by latest RMT (National Union of Rail, Maritime & Transport Workers) strike action

Small business owners tell i of losing sales owing to Royal Mail strikes in lead-up to Christmas - as North East Ambulance Service declares critical incident for second time in nine days

Personal view - whatever the outcome, whoever wins (if any one does), it will be a Pyrrhic victory. And if there is no victor, we we will out with a kludge between the parties who are rail-positive with all of those parties, and thus rail, being significantly weakened.  Now is the time (no, actually, the time was 8 months ago) for all parties to come up with a solution they can all live with, and to work together on a rail strategy they can all work with over the next decade.

That's a personal view.  And it beggars the question "who and how can an agreement and strategy be brokered?" Either it needs someone or some group that is respected by all parties - or some new group or strong force that can quickly - very quickly - gain that respect, either from actions or from an overpowering public support.  Answer to "who and how" would be appreciated - blowed if I can see the answer, sadly.

The difficulty for the RMT (especially) is that their hand has been considerably weakened by the new World of hybrid/home working (and yes I know not everyone can work from home, but enough, and of the right sort to make a huge difference to the Union's leverage) - rail is now an option for many, rather than a necessity - this makes the Government confident that they can tough it out - it may well be that they devote resources to settling with the Nurses etc and sideline the RMT - and the CWU» (Communication Workers Union - website) where the posties seem determined to finish off what is also/already a sector in decline thanks to the modern world.

The constant disruption and uncertainty increases the railway's reputation for unreliability and may stifle the recovery in leisure travel which was the great white hope given the reduction in the cash cow that was commuting/business travel (if that saying is still allowed)

The rail Unions have to accept that with only a small proportion of tickets now being purchased at ticket offices, it is ridiculous to insist on the status quo being maintained in this area - individual anecdotes about helpful members of staff I am afraid are largely irrelevant in the bigger picture - they also need to move on Sunday working -  rail needs to be a service sector fitting around the needs of customers, not the convenience or cosy but outdated working practices of staff.

Similarly the Government need to acknowledge the legitimate concerns in cutting maintenance and DOO (Driver-Only Operation (that is, trains which operate without carrying a guard)) - there does need to be a compromise and there should be enough wriggle room and enough issues for a trade-off  but I think both sides are too pigheaded to concede much and I think Graham's point about a pyrrhic victory is a good one. 
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ellendune
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« Reply #7 on: December 28, 2022, 12:09:02 »

The difficulty for the RMT (National Union of Rail, Maritime & Transport Workers) (especially) is that their hand has been considerably weakened by the new World of hybrid/home working (and yes I know not everyone can work from home, but enough, and of the right sort to make a huge difference to the Union's leverage) - rail is now an option for many, rather than a necessity - this makes the Government confident that they can tough it out - it may well be that they devote resources to settling with the Nurses etc and sideline the RMT.

The difficulty for the government is that the polls say that public support the unions and believe the strikes are the fault of the government.

.. and the CWU» (Communication Workers Union - website) where the posties seem determined to finish off what is also/already a sector in decline thanks to the modern world.

The difficulty here is that there is a statutory duty to provide a universal postal service.  I can't see any UK (United Kingdom) government voting to be the first country to abolish that!
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Mark A
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« Reply #8 on: December 28, 2022, 12:26:23 »

March - Spalding was a 1982 closure, in November.

Mark
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grahame
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« Reply #9 on: December 28, 2022, 12:39:44 »

March - Spalding was a 1982 closure, in November.

Mark

Ah - thank you! ... I worked from a list of closed stations.  March to Spalding was a significant closure that has turned out to be very unfortunate with the growth of freight traffic from Felixstowe to the Midlands and the North.

edit to add - https://www.railmagazine.com/news/rail-features/a-lost-line-and-a-lost-opportunity
« Last Edit: December 28, 2022, 12:46:53 by grahame » Logged

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« Reply #10 on: December 28, 2022, 14:52:51 »

1982 marks a low point on the train passenger journeys graph. Following that, there were annual rises until 1988 (barring one year).

Winter 1982-3... a hazy recollection of services on the GW (Great Western) main line - a (seven days a week) howling recession - and on Sunday mornings the Bristol and Cheltenham lines, not for reasons connected with engineering works as far as I recall - no train service - as a cost cutting measure everything from those two lines was bustituted, using Newbury as a railhead.

Kemble was my local station at the time, the single track to Swindon was being an own-goal PITA (Pain in the A**e) when it came to timekeeping and the winter dealt a minus 18 degree cold spell with drifting snow. This did give me the opportunity, one evening, to catch a largely white-liveried HST (High Speed Train) up to London, after an hour and a half's walk to the station though the fields alongside the minor roads. Drifting snow had filled those to the tops of the hedges.
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« Reply #11 on: December 28, 2022, 15:37:48 »

Winter 1982-3... a hazy recollection of services on the GW (Great Western) main line - a (seven days a week) howling recession - and on Sunday mornings the Bristol and Cheltenham lines, not for reasons connected with engineering works as far as I recall - no train service - as a cost cutting measure everything from those two lines was bustituted, using Newbury as a railhead.

I am unsure about those, but engineering works allowed me to have an entertaining day out on Sunday November 28th, 1982. In those days I lived in South Wales. The NRTT of the day (printed copy) showed some interesting options for the journey to Birmingham - with via Reading being valid.

So, armed with a Newport->Birmingham return (priced £4.35 with railcard) I caught the Paddington HST (High Speed Train), which itself was diverted via Hawkeridge Junction and Newbury. At Reading I boarded the diverted Exeter->Newcastle HST, which ran via Solihull. Back home on a DMU (Diesel Multiple Unit) to Hereford then Mk1 coaches in the care of a class 47 to Newport.

Off-topic but couldn't resist the reminiscing.
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