Rolling stock arithmetic for May 2023

[whole diary]

[grahame]

I met friends last night (OK - WWRUG^» (West Wiltshire Rail Users Group - about) Committee meeting ;-) ) and we were trying to work out where the trains that are to be used on the improved Bristol Regional Services ("Bristol Metro") from May are coming from.   With the 769s going off lease, with Castle Class retirements and with nothing much I can think of (one test train on Greenford?) announced to arrive, where is the stock coming from?   
* Better use of existing stock / less trains that usual needing repair?
* Class 387 emus routinely running most / all London to Cardiff semifasts?
* More IETs^▸ (Intercity Express Train) coming out to play on daily contract?
* 4 and 5 car trains being split to give 2 trains.
* Reducing the reliability of services - only running certain services if there are enough trains on the day
* Anything incoming I have not noticed - TfW should be releasing 150, 153 and 158 units

The plans look good (for the most part) - if they can be delivered reliably and with enough capacity

[ChrisB]

* Anything incoming I have not noticed - TfW should be releasing 150, 153 and 158 units

The plans look good (for the most part) - if they can be delivered reliably and with enough capacity

Isn't this your answer?

[broadgage]

I presume that more long distance services will be downgraded to 5 car operation. As was predicted years ago by my famous crystal ball.
And more use of suburban trains to Cardiff. 387s are not much worse than IETs^▸ (Intercity Express Train), but still a backward step. 387s are not even claimed to be inter-city trains.

[Clan Line]

* 4 and 5 car trains being split to give 2 trains.

How much money was spent (wasted ?) on lengthening platforms to take 5 car trains ??

[IndustryInsider]

With regard to the ‘doubling’ of services between Bristol and Worcester, I’m sure that’s being resourced by more efficient use of stock.

None of them run south of Bristol and only one runs past Worcester Foregate Street to Great Malvern instead of the half dozen or so that currently do.

Better for journeys between Worcester and Bristol, apart from the traditional peaks where the morning service to Worcester runs a bit too early and terminates at Shrub Hill, and the evening one back from Worcester to Bristol starts at Shrub Hill rather than Foregate Street like all the others.  There is little or no improvement for commuters from Worcester to Cheltenham/Gloucester/Bristol at peak times either with the existing two hour gap from WOF/WOS^» (Worcester Shrub Hill - next trains) remaining, though options from Worcestershire Parkway do partly compensate for that.

Much worse for leisure passengers from Malvern or those from south of Bristol like Bath and Westbury wanting through journeys.

[ChrisB]

All of which the local Promotion Group have noted already & are taking up with GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway). There are those from Malvern that currently go south of Worcester without having to change & wait. They definitely see a degrading service.

[paul7575]

Existing 158s being reverted to 2 car - Portsmouth - Cardiff no longer to be 5 car length.

[CyclingSid]

Existing 158s being reverted to 2 car - Portsmouth - Cardiff no longer to be 5 car length.

Back to cattle truck conditions, from SOU-PMH

[grahame]

Existing 158s being reverted to 2 car - Portsmouth - Cardiff no longer to be 5 car length.

Back to cattle truck conditions, from SOU-PMH

My understanding is that they should run as 4 car trains for the most part.  But then I have written "should" not "will".

There will be pretty much at least 2 trains per hour all along the route, and I do wonder in 4 cars will cope for the most part - but you may be right on the Southampton to Portsmouth (and Southsea - is it really "Cattle Truck" into Harbour?) section.

[broadgage]

about 25 half length IETs^▸ (Intercity Express Train) today, thereby demonstrating that plenty of spare units are available to cover for the about to be withdrawn 5 car HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train).

[TaplowGreen]

about 25 half length IETs^▸ (Intercity Express Train) today, thereby demonstrating that plenty of spare units are available to cover for the about to be withdrawn 5 car HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train).

Yep, shortforming & overcrowding is the way forward.

[ChrisB]

You mis-understand the leasing contract with GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway).

Hitachi are contracted to provide distinct set numbers of a mix of 5car, 9car & 10car IETs^▸ (Intercity Express Train) each day.

They are also contracted to provide replacements should any be unavailable on any day - like-for-like doesn't incur any penalty, a different shorter length would.

They are NOT contracted to provide additional trains at either parties 'whim' unfortunately. Any 'lying around' unused are for replacement use or not at all now, as the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) will not sanction any additional payments outside the leasing contract requirements.

So there ARE NOT plenty of 5car units 'spare' as you term it. Those 5car units you refer to running about are either 10cars turned out as 5cars by having only 1 unit running instead of two, or 5car units running instead of the contracted 9car. THey are not extras.

[broadgage]

I may well not fully understand the Hitachi contract.

I have however stated on these forums that the new trains would be shorter, as is occuring regularly, and that before withdrawing the short HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train), and despite use of suburban stock on Cardiff services in place of so called inter city trains.

Regardless as to whether caused by cracks, other mechanical defects, or the hitachi contract.

New trains=shorter trains.

As with most other new trains.

[IndustryInsider]

New trains=shorter trains.

Or, depending on your narrative, you could say new operator=shorter trains.

More relevant I think given the cost savings demanded by the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about).  Who are, to all intents and purposes, the new operator.

But, yes, the end result will be the same IMHO^▸ (in my humble opinion).  A general reduction in capacity by running shorter trains, and a big increase in crowding on leisure services as a result.

[grahame]

A general reduction in capacity by running shorter trains, and a big increase in crowding on leisure services as a result.

That is anticipated by our TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company).   A specific discussion relating to Bradford-on-Avon to Bath and Bristol (where some services have been so busy people have not been able to join) at the start of the week suggested to me that in this case people would be wise to join "stoppers" from West Wilts rather than the services coming up from Portsmouth. With 3 trains an hour up from 2, but trains scheduled shorter, that makes some sense.   

Total carriages per hours appears to change from 5+3 to perhaps 4+2+2 (= no change) or 4+3+2 but the waits between trains will not be (on average) as long.  I aim reminded of once upon a time (a long, long time ago) when infrequent loco and coaches were replaced by hourly 158s and traffic rocketed, and I suspect that the increase in services if they are reliable at Warminster, Dilton Marsh, Frome, Oldfield Park and Keynsham will make a really big difference at each of those, with some growth at Westbury, Trowbridge and Bradford-on-Avon.