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Author Topic: Dawlish Avoiding Line - ongoing discussion, merged topic  (Read 152381 times)
ChrisB
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« Reply #390 on: January 30, 2015, 10:47:24 am »

I'm puzzled by Tudor Evans comments!

I wonder what his solution would be if the cliffs collapsed.....
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alexross42
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« Reply #391 on: January 30, 2015, 11:22:54 am »

I think he's saying that he wants a solution that still provides connectivity to the areas that the mainline currently serves, i.e. Torbay/South Devon - whether that's possible is up for debate but it would most likely need to involve the Haldon Tunnel option.

Opening up the Okehampton route means that you could generate income from this route all year round, as well as providing connectivity to the far West when the Dawlish line is breached. There's nothing to say that contingency services couldn't be introduced during such times that would see services running from Plymouth as far East as possible (i.e. Newton Abbot/Paignton) that would still largely serve those areas.

I think some are under the impression that if Okehampton was the favoured solution then when Dawlish was breached there would be zero services along the current mainline east of Plymouth. A lot of practicalities would have to be investigated in this scenario but I haven't seen anything to suggest that this would indeed be the case.
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TaplowGreen
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« Reply #392 on: January 30, 2015, 12:02:39 pm »

I'm puzzled by Tudor Evans comments!

I wonder what his solution would be if the cliffs collapsed.....

Tudor Evans is an all round idiot, its not restricted to his views on rail, he will jump on any bandwagon that happens to be passing.
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Andy
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« Reply #393 on: January 30, 2015, 12:10:41 pm »

I think he's saying that he wants a solution that still provides connectivity to the areas that the mainline currently serves, i.e. Torbay/South Devon - whether that's possible is up for debate but it would most likely need to involve the Haldon Tunnel option.

Opening up the Okehampton route means that you could generate income from this route all year round, as well as providing connectivity to the far West when the Dawlish line is breached. There's nothing to say that contingency services couldn't be introduced during such times that would see services running from Plymouth as far East as possible (i.e. Newton Abbot/Paignton) that would still largely serve those areas.

I think some are under the impression that if Okehampton was the favoured solution then when Dawlish was breached there would be zero services along the current mainline east of Plymouth. A lot of practicalities would have to be investigated in this scenario but I haven't seen anything to suggest that this would indeed be the case.

I think you're right about the misconceptions you mention. My own view is that Okehampton should be reopened a.s.a.p. AND the coastal route should be maintained until it's clear that it's no longer practical/feasible. At that point, a new route should be built between Exeter and Teignmouth/Newton Abbot, hopefully as part of electrification right through to Plymouth/Paignton.
   

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MarkRanger
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« Reply #394 on: January 30, 2015, 12:27:43 pm »

I've followed this for a while, and the other thread on the board about Tavistock. Having been involved in trying to fight what has become the Cambridge Guided Bus debacle I have developed a theory - which does seem to be holding up - that the key motivator for new schemes is political and once that decision is taken, the justification - ie cost benefit - is worked on accordingly. Not necessarily the other way round.

For a long time they said that Okehampton did not stack up, but when the Dawlish breach happened, there was a huge political backlash. Of course, we are now counting down to a general election too, so the ante has been increased.

Maybe I am totally wide of the mark here, but I have just sensed how the waters have been getting progressively warmer, and the Transport secretary's visit to the Dartmoor Railway last year said a lot.

And I sincerely hope it does happen, especially for the former Southern Region locations to the north of Okehampton, but more importantly to increase the resilience of the area to future weather events
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Red Squirrel
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« Reply #395 on: January 30, 2015, 02:32:16 pm »

I've followed this for a while, and the other thread on the board about Tavistock. Having been involved in trying to fight what has become the Cambridge Guided Bus debacle I have developed a theory - which does seem to be holding up - that the key motivator for new schemes is political and once that decision is taken, the justification - ie cost benefit - is worked on accordingly. Not necessarily the other way round.

For a long time they said that Okehampton did not stack up, but when the Dawlish breach happened, there was a huge political backlash. Of course, we are now counting down to a general election too, so the ante has been increased.

Maybe I am totally wide of the mark here, but I have just sensed how the waters have been getting progressively warmer, and the Transport secretary's visit to the Dartmoor Railway last year said a lot.

And I sincerely hope it does happen, especially for the former Southern Region locations to the north of Okehampton, but more importantly to increase the resilience of the area to future weather events

I'm sure you're right.

The NR» (Network Rail - home page) report makes it very clear that the LSWR (London South Western Railway) route doesn't come close to stacking up financially; politically however it may have legs if (and this may be a big enough 'if' to kill it) the good burghers of Torbay can be persuaded that it can be built without detriment to their service.

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trainbuff
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« Reply #396 on: January 30, 2015, 02:34:00 pm »

Totally agree that the Okehampton route should be done first.

In fact none of the routes stacked up financially. The Okehampton Route had a Benefit Cost Ratio of 0.14. Even the best DAL was only 0.17. However the Political drive is a major point and Okehampton also regenerates a large area. In fact it also increases both Exeter and Plymouth travel to work areas.

I know that Mr Evans would prefer 'Tudor's Tunnels' under Haldon, but these are not needed as yet. There is time to plan any DAL. In fact whilst at it get rid of the SLOWEST bit between Newton Abbot and Totnes (55mph) and build a HS (High Speed (short for HSS (High Speed Services) High Speed Services)) line all the way to Plymouth. Time is there to get finance for this if The 'NORTHERN ROUTE' is built first and the current route is made more resilient.

No one wants to the current line to not be the main line
« Last Edit: January 30, 2015, 02:44:06 pm by trainbuff » Logged

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« Reply #397 on: February 04, 2015, 06:35:36 am »

A general article on the BBC» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) web site this a.m.

The railway lines alarmingly close to the sea

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-31113368

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The collapse of the railway line at Dawlish last year generated major headlines but it's not the only stretch under threat.

The coastal railway line from Carlisle to Barrow-in-Furness is one of the most scenic in Britain. In places it runs at the foot of cliffs immediately above the water. That means it's also one of the most vulnerable lines in the country, always at risk from the destructive power of the sea, or from rock falls, or from both.

The tiny unmanned halt at Flimby, just north of Workington, is a bleak and windswept place in January. It's also one of the most exposed stretches of the line - the track here runs almost at sea level right along the back of the beach, divided from it only by a low earth bank. And on 3 January last year, a few hundred metres south of Flimby station, the line ended up under water.

Looks at Dawlish, and Cumbrian and Cambrian coast lines.
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eightf48544
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« Reply #398 on: February 04, 2015, 09:31:20 am »

Not to mention a lot of the North Wales Main line from the mouth of the Dee to Bangor.

Wasn't that flooded a few years back around Rhyl?
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« Reply #399 on: February 06, 2015, 12:19:34 pm »

Given the recent news about the estimated ^1b+ cost of the breach to business, would that not positively impact on the cost benefit for the re-instatement project? And if not - why not?
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« Reply #400 on: February 06, 2015, 08:22:05 pm »

Given the recent news about the estimated ^1b+ cost of the breach to business, would that not positively impact on the cost benefit for the re-instatement project? And if not - why not?

Because politicians only want to be pro business when it suits them.  Which is when the business is very big and in London.  Or am I too cynical. 
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« Reply #401 on: February 07, 2015, 06:26:34 pm »

Given the recent news about the estimated ^1b+ cost of the breach to business, would that not positively impact on the cost benefit for the re-instatement project? And if not - why not?
How on earth was that figure arrived at? Or, more pertinently, what were the authors smoking when they wrote it?

The line was closed for about 2 months, say 60 days. This implies that the loss of the train service caused a drop in GDP of  nearly ^17 million per day.

As people could still get to points west of Exeter by road, and those living on the line of route west of Exeter could still reach points east of Exeter, there is no logical reason for a significant drop in GDP. Businesses and people might have incurred extra costs, and assuming this ^1 billion truly reflects this increase than it implies that, based on 30 trains per day travelling west of Exeter each with 150 people on board, each journey cost ^3,700 more that usual.

Absolute balderdash.

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ChrisB
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« Reply #402 on: February 07, 2015, 08:50:58 pm »

Yup....it wasn't at the height of the tourist season either, I seem to recall.

That figure is conplete poppycock
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Chris from Nailsea
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« Reply #403 on: February 07, 2015, 09:22:26 pm »

Those figures (such as they are capable of being quantified) are from the Devon Maritime Forum.

From the BBC» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

Quote
Dawlish rail line: Closure 'costs economy up to ^1.2bn'

The destruction of the main railway line connecting Devon and Cornwall to the rest of the UK (United Kingdom) could have cost the economy up to ^1.2bn in the two months it was closed, a report has claimed.

The tracks were left dangling in mid-air at Dawlish exactly a year ago after storms battered the country.

The Devon Maritime Forum said "all industries were hit" by the destruction of the line in February 2014.

A 300-strong team rebuilt the track which reopened in April.

The forum, which is behind the report, said the economic impact, which includes the tourist and fishing industries, is estimated to be anything from ^60m to ^1.2bn.

It said there was a ^135m reduction in holiday spending in the first half of 2014, compared with the same period from the previous year, and Brixham Fish Market experienced a ^3m reduction in sales in spring 2014, compared with the previous spring.

The report states that the impact of the images of the winter storms were as "powerful and devastating, economically, as the physical impacts of the storms themselves".

Dr Stephen Gilbert, the forum co-ordinator said the "famous image of the hanging line at Dawlish" gave the impression Devon and the South West were closed for business.

Rail replacement services were put in place and the line reopened on 4 April 2014 at a cost of ^35m.

Prime Minister David Cameron praised the "Herculean effort" of workers on round-the-clock shifts.

In December, Network Rail won government backing to start looking into alternative routes to the coast-hugging line.

The Devon Maritime Forum was established in 2005 as a strategic county-wide partnership.
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TonyK
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« Reply #404 on: February 08, 2015, 12:12:49 am »

One industry that was not badly hit was the hospitality industry, local to where the "Orange Army" were deployed.
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