Train Services to be withdrawn / line shut from December? (UK)

[whole diary]

[grahame]

"Out of Area" ... but could be significant across the country.

The Department for Transport is to withdraw train services completely from the Walsall (pop 175,000) to Wolverhampton (pop 250,000) line in December.

1. I know from my own experience that the Office of the Rail Regulator, which acts as the only independent monitor in aspects such as this will have very poor statistics indeed, as when I made an enquiry about passenger numbers on the TransWilts they could only provide data based on passenger numbers at intermediate stations, of which there are none on the service the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) are to withdraw.

2. I am also very much aware from the Jacobs report prior to the GW^▸ (Great Western) franchise, and other experience, that many recommendations made are based on very pessimistic forecasts and are shortsighted.

Taking both (1) and (2) into consideration, I consider that there is a strong possibility that the decision to withdraw the service is flawed and ... if such a closure goes ahead, it could set a dangerous precendent for our own area.

It's not within my remit under the "Save the Train" campaign - looking at the TransWilts line and neighbouring services - to get myself deeply involved in this one, but can I ask everyone on a personal level to have a look at the petiton at:
        http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/walsallrail/
and if you consider that it (especially the precedent issue) may effect you, ask yourself if you should be signing it ...

Precendent set - what could follow in the South West?
- The TransWilts
- Pilning
- Avonmouth to Severn Beach
- Bere Alston to Gunnislake (if Tavistock reopened especially)
- Newquay (remember Minehead!)
- Ealing to Greenford
- Yeovil to Weymouth
- Cotswold line smaller stations
- Oxford to Bicester
- Liskeard to Looe
- Dilton Marsh
- Bourne End to Marlow
- Clifton Downs to Avonmouth
- Castle Cary to Yeovil


Lee (who's CANBER^▸ (Campaign Against the New Beeching Report) co-ordinating group is behind the petition) will probably want to follow up here, correct me on any errors, and make further comment.

[RichardB]

Don't forget that, despite Walsall - Wolverhampton, which I think is an exceptional case, we have a cast iron guarantee of no closures before 2014.

This is the direct quote from the Government's "Delivering a Sustainable Railway" White Paper published last year -

"The Government will not close any regional or rural routes in the period covered by the HLOS^▸ (High Level Output Specification). Nor does it envisage reopening lines. In the longer term, the shape of the network may need to change, but the agenda for the period to 2014 should focus on demand growth and cost reduction on the existing network."

The full White Paper can be found here http://www.dft.gov.uk/about/strategy/whitepapers/whitepapercm7176/multideliversustainrailway

[Lee]

Richard and I have always amicably disagreed on this subject 

My view can be found below :

Another  problem with Melksham is that it can't be closed because it would  polictically unpopular as the government wants to be seen as pro rail and not shutting railway stations especialy given the general elections only a couple of years away. The TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company) are quite happy for it remain open as  a diversionary and freight route. They will be even more happy when it's needed for diversions for electrification.

I have a slightly different take on that.

I actually think we are entering a very dangerous phase regarding the future of several lines and stations. Yes, we have a general election a couple of years away, but it is also one that the current administration know that they cant win (as illustrated by the link below.)
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/index.html

Polling might be an inexact science but I cant see them coming back from that. It is at these times that governments start doing very inadvisable things (as illustrated by the link below.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Privatisation_of_British_Rail

In the final years of the last Conservative government, closure was proposed at several stations, among them the Oxfordshire Halts and Dilton Marsh. Ironically, these stations, along with several others, were recommended for closure in the 2004 Greater Western Outline Business Case Report (link below.)
http://www.dft.gov.uk/foi/responses/2006/september06/swindonwestburytrainsservice/greaterwesternoutlinebusines1103

My worry is that, in the absence of any electoral imperative, and with recession on the way, such proposals could be resurrected in the administration's dying days.

The removal of any useful TransWilts service certainly has Beeching-esque characteristics. The pattern is being repeated in other areas, with franchise agreements seemingly no barrier to the withdrawal of passenger services (example link below.)
http://www.canber.co.uk/?q=node/35

The current DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) closure guidance also makes it far easier to close lines and stations, in comparison to the lengthy process it replaced.

As eightf48544 states, the line itself has never been under threat. It has always had strategic value for diversionary purposes, and along with freight traffic plus a single (nonstop) train on Summer Saturdays, running from the Midlands through to Weymouth for holiday makers, survived on that basis between 1966 and 1985 while Melksham station was closed.

However, from a CANBER^▸ (Campaign Against the New Beeching Report) perspective, it is of no use to me if no passenger service is provided and Melksham station closes again. I consider this to be a real possibility if the current passenger service continues in its present form.

Government promises (even "cast-iron guarantees") can be broken, and in the current circumstances, I feel there is a definate risk that this one could be.

A general election is also due within 2 years, and an incoming Conservative government (should there be one), committed to spend ^1.3bn a year for 12 years from within current levels of government capital spend on rail on a high-speed link, wont be bound by that promise.

On the Walsall-Wolverhampton petition, do consider signing and feel free to do so if you agree with it.

I am heartened at the local support it has received, particularly from Walsall Council and Centro (links below.)
http://www.walsall.gov.uk/

http://www.centro.org.uk/rail/railintro.asp

Lets hope that, at the very least, we can send a strong, clear message of opposition to this.

[grahame]

Don't forget that, despite Walsall - Wolverhampton, which I think is an exceptional case, we have a cast iron guarantee of no closures before 2014.

Hmm - there are some exceptional things about this one, I guess.  As I understand it, the service currently runs every hour and for a train that's as frequent as that to be completely withdrawn is indeed exceptional.  And the rail alternative is a very long journey - I have just visited the on-line timetable and was offered a 15 minute journey at 17:44 (direct), or one at 17:48 that took an hour. That's an excpetionally long time for a journey that's just 15 minutes direct ...

Richard, I'm too long in the tooth to trust promises, I'm afraid - especially ones written with caveats such as "rural" and "regional".  I've seen politicians break promises once or twice, and also make a promise or two and then look to reverse the implied effect by their other actions.  Don't I recall a recent consultation where the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) was looking to make it easier to make certain changes by redefining "closure" to exclude certain things it previous included?

If you ask me to choose between trusting the DfT and raising questions and profiles so that there are checks in place, I'll raise the questions.  The very reason for my involvement in railway campaigning is because I and others trusted the DfT to provide appropriate rail services, and while our eyes were off the ball they decided to cut our services by 60%, through a specification change which when we questioned it lead them to grin like Cheshire Cats and say "too late".  Alice in Wonderland stuff - but it's what really happens, I'm afraid.

[bemmy]

Talking of breaking promises, I expect the Tories to win the next election, but I don't believe for a minute they will build this high speed line, I'm sure there are some powerful people that can persuade them to go with the new runway at Heathrow. After all, during the mid-90s weren't Labour promising to renationalise the railways?

[Btline]

I think this closure it an absolute scandal.

The only reason they are closing it is to get the carriage to run Worcester to Gloucester (which will be more useful for myself).

But here is the problem. Unless a carriage is found, nothing can stop the closure.

They have used wrong data from a few years ago before the line was promoted and people used it.

The have also claimed that a bus will take over. I expect the bus will be axed within a year.

It is a busy popular route in the second conurbation of the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) and its closure will cause traffic, pollution and damage the railway.

But I doubt we will win.