Cambridge Guided Busway - ongoing discussion and updates (merged topic)

[whole diary]

[welshman]

Cambridge Guided Busway forecasts are 20,000 journeys per day by 2016.  It will be most interesting to see if they can reach that after about five years within 2 - i.e. if they can parallel the extreme growth of the Ebbw Vale service.

An interesting thought or three:

* If Ebbw Vale grew so much quicker than the forecast, does it mean that the forecast was based on unduely pessimistic predications ... and if it was over-pessimistic in the forecast, how many other otherwise-viable schemes have actually been rejected by undue pessimism?

* As taxpayers, shouldn't we be hoping that the CGB carries the number of people targetted rather than far more (which might have justified a different solution) or far less (which might also point towards another solution)

I suspect that the true answer about Ebbw Vale growth is that no-one had a clue what would happen but based on experience with the other Valley Lines it was thought that the trains would be well used. 

To understand the dynamics of the Valleys, you need to look at the map.  There are, depending how you count, about 8 to 10 proper Valleys.  They are all about 1 mile wide or less and run north-south from the southern edge of the Brecon  Beacons towards Cardiff or Newport.  Each valley is separated from the next to the east or west by a ridge probably 12-1500 feet high.  To get out you have to go south to the coast or north to the Beacons.  For the most part you cannot go east west from the middle of one valley to the next.

This means that for commercial/shopping etc purposes everyone gravitates south since most of the Valleys towns are decrepit/dilapidated and exhausted.  A road trip from Ebbw Vale to Cardiff (or Newport) is a tiresome trek along winding roads through ribbon development.  A train therefore, especially for the teenagers, is a godsend and preferable to a bus in a queue.  Thus the enthusiasm for the Ebbw Vale Railway.

There is a strong lobby for the remodelled Gaer Junction to allow alternate trains to Newport and Cardiff.  Given that Cardiff will only be about 10 or 15 minutes further away, I suspect that Newport will not benefit greatly, it being a dump by comparison.  I speak as one who has lived in both.

[John R]

A dump? Surely you can't mean the great metropolis which is shortly going to play host to thousands of american golf fans and half the world's sports media. I do hope they don't read the Coffee Shop.   

[JayMac]

From an American online friend of mine:

"Newport Wales, that's in England yeah?" 

[Adrian the Rock]

To understand the dynamics of the Valleys, you need to look at the map.  There are, depending how you count, about 8 to 10 proper Valleys.  They are all about 1 mile wide or less and run north-south from the southern edge of the Brecon  Beacons towards Cardiff or Newport.  Each valley is separated from the next to the east or west by a ridge probably 12-1500 feet high.  To get out you have to go south to the coast or north to the Beacons.  For the most part you cannot go east west from the middle of one valley to the next...

I should mention one major exception to the last point, which is the route of the A472, which follows that of the former GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) line from Pontypool Road [Eastern valley] to near Quakers Yard on the Taff.  This crosses the Ebbw valley at Crumlin/Newbridge, the Sirhowy at Gelligroes and the Rhymney at Ystrad Mynach.  (The GWR line then tunnelled through the ridge to the Cynon valley, up which it ran to the top at Hirwaun and then down the vale of Neath to reach Neath & Brecon Jct.)  It's also possible to get across from Caerphilly [Rhymney again] to a point north of Taffs Well by a road that runs roughly parallel to the former "big hill" from Walnut Tree Jct to Aber Jct (and, in even earlier times) Caerphilly itself.

[welshman]

Thanks Adrian for that.

BUT the A472 meets the A470 at Abercynon.  It's all in the name - that's the mouth of the Cynon Valley and where the Cynon joins the Taff at what is also really the bottom of the Merthyr valley. 

I accept it's half an exception to the rule.

More typical of the journeys is Treherbert to Aberdare.  That's only about 4 miles as the crow flies.  It's 13 miles by road.

By road that's two buses.  By train it's two trains-  Aberdare to Pontypridd and Pontypridd to Treherbert.
Either way that's 1hr 15 mins or so.  Which is my point.

And has nothing to do with guided busways.

[MarkRanger]

Hello all,

I thought you might be interested in CAST.IRON's proposal for an alternative station to serve the north of Cambridge. See http://www.castiron.org.uk/MiltonRoad/

There are existing plans for a much larger station nearby at Chesterton Junction, costed at around ^21m. Our idea is designed to be much cheaper, and we believe will deliver a similar level of benefits.

It also protects the trackbed of the former St.Ives branch, until the start of the Cambridge Guided Busway (built over the former trackbed to the west of our station). Draw your own conclusions as to why we think that is a strategically good idea!

As usual Cambridgeshire County Council have immediately tried to pour cold water on our suggestions - http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/Home/3m-railway-station-plan-unveiled-by-campaigners.htm

Let's hope this time they think a little more than they did when they were desperate to open the world's longest guided busway, which hasn't and nobody really knows when it will

All the best

Mark Ranger
CAST.IRON

[grahame]

Mark, you may not have the support of the council - but you CERTAINLY have the support of the people who work on the Cambridge Science Park, and their attention to a station at the Milton Road junction.  I'm in Cambridge at the moment - and that's a comment that came out of the blue from several of my delegates who know the area well, and would use such a service if it was provided.

Over the road, here are some scenes taken today





I have also put a third scene in "The Lighter Side", looking for a caption:

http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=6631.0

[welshman]

And they are still faffing about.  Boreholes are being drilled and some sections of the busway have to be raised because of flooding/ponding issues.  Following a council meeting on 25 May, it was announced that it would be the end of July before a start-up schedule could be announced. 

[caliwag]

Marvellous...but what about this. I thought it was a joke but they've all got very serious faces. They must have been inspired by that one with the Hillman Imp posted earlier.

Great fun but weren't they doing this in Ireland in 1930s?, only with a good deal more elegant a bus

http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/threecounties/hi/people_and_places/newsid_8715000/8715503.stm

[caliwag]

...and if any of you have the energy to follow this fiasco! Today's news

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cambridgeshire/10281595.stm

[eightf48544]

The Dunstable one looks like reverse engineering a 14X!

RE^▸ (Religious Education) Cambridge Quote from report above:

"The council said it was "frustrated" that the contactor had not yet instructed its designers to correct the flooded cycleway or quantify the fire risk posed by communication cables."

Fire risk from communications cables, that's a new one on me. HT^▸ (Hull Trains), maybe but low voltage comms cables!

[paul7575]

Quick update on the Fareham Gosport 'bus lane' - the Portsmouth News have reported tonight that the high court has thrown out the Nimby's bat enthusiast's complaints...

Paul

[eightf48544]

Oh dear does that mean it's going ahead despite the Cambridge disaster.

[Mr. Kipling]

Hello all,

I thought you might be interested in CAST.IRON's proposal for an alternative station to serve the north of Cambridge. See http://www.castiron.org.uk/MiltonRoad/

There are existing plans for a much larger station nearby at Chesterton Junction, costed at around ^21m. Our idea is designed to be much cheaper, and we believe will deliver a similar level of benefits.

It also protects the trackbed of the former St.Ives branch, until the start of the Cambridge Guided Busway (built over the former trackbed to the west of our station). Draw your own conclusions as to why we think that is a strategically good idea!

As usual Cambridgeshire County Council have immediately tried to pour cold water on our suggestions - http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/Home/3m-railway-station-plan-unveiled-by-campaigners.htm

Let's hope this time they think a little more than they did when they were desperate to open the world's longest guided busway, which hasn't and nobody really knows when it will

All the best

Mark Ranger
CAST.IRON

Hi Mark. I was planning on sending this to your site but you'll see it here, as will everyone else. Up in Crawley there is the 'Fastway' which seems to randomly switch between bus lane and guideway. I have heard recently that Metrobus, the main company in Crawley and only user of the Fastway, have stopped using it and removed all the guide wheels from the buses, which all now use the normal roads in the area.
Maybe it's time to call for a boycott of the Misguided busway in Cambridge. I seriously can't wait for it to fail

[grahame]

Maybe it's time to call for a boycott of the Misguided busway in Cambridge. I seriously can't wait for it to fail

Welcome to the forum, Mr Kipling.  Your post had me musing (again) as to just how late the opening now is, and I came across the following which I found - err - interesting:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cambridgeshire/3477655.stm

Of course, lots of projects overrun to the extent that there's now a 66% "optimism bias" built in to estimates for rail - meaning that it's expected that a 500,000 pound project will cost 800,000. I'm not sure about time optimism, nor whether this is / was applied to the original busway figures.

With so much money spent, it makes sense to give it a good go - not to wish it failure, but to give it very best use when it opens.  That should mean extending Cambridge terminating trains from the South to Cambridge Science Park station (across the road from the guided busway station) which would cost a drop compared to the ocean that has been poured in so far.  A failure of this project will cost how much for each Cambridge Tax payer?

Having said that, the performance / current status of smaller schemes such as the one you mention (and I think there are others in Leeds and there was one in Birmingham) doesn't raise confidence.  Perhaps lessons have been learned from them and incorporated in Cambridge?   But then, again, confidence isn't inspired by the huge overrun.

Let's wait and see - but encourage success to pay back the taxpayer and to do some good for the people who live and commute in the area, rather than encouraging and wishing for an expensive failure. And I say that even based on the the fact that many of us feel there was a far better option available.