Great Western Main Line electrification - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[ChrisB]

I think the detail comes in the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about)-specific announcement - due next week?

Anyone know which day next week yet?

[Chafford1]

An interesting and optimistic take from the Financial Times:

Will Hammond find the money for more big transport schemes?

October 22, 2010 6:10pm by Jim Pickard

There is something curious in the way that several key transport decisions were left out of the CSR^▸ (Cab Secure Radio) on Wednesday. The four missing announcements were: the big order for Intercity Express trains from the Hitachi-led Agility consortium, the electrification of the Great Western line, another order for about a thousand train carriages and the Thameslink upgrade.

Sources in the Department for Transport insist that these interconnected upgrades are genuinely going to the wire. They depend, for example, on Agility^s ability to reduce its original ^7.5bn cost by a significant margin.

Yet the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about)^s budget is now settled, albeit at 9.30pm on Tuesday, last of all the departments. Its capital spending is hardly taking a dent (down from ^7.7bn to ^7.5bn) although programme spending will fall from ^5.1bn to ^4.4bn (a rise in train fares will help to compensate).

Crossrail will go ahead, as George Osborne announced on Wednesday. What of the other four programmes? If they were being universally ditched, wouldn^t it make sense to have bundled that bad news up in Wednesday^s tsunami of cuts?

Philip Hammond is meant to be clarifying the decision in a few weeks. At which point the coalition is supposed to be into its period of ^growth stories^, a narrative which will involve a sequence of uplifting tales about renewed investment and spending to help UK^▸ (United Kingdom) plc. One might expect good news on rail projects to be part of this jolly grid. If not it would be a surprisingly bad piece of news management.

[Electric train]

What of the other four programmes? If they were being universally ditched, wouldn^t it make sense to have bundled that bad news up in Wednesday^s tsunami of cuts?

My feeling is that upgrades and electrification will be wrapped up in franchises, longer franchise in exchange for committed investment from the TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company)'s with some coming from the public purse, I suspect that Network Rail will be reformatted in how it operates I am not convince that it will be carved up and handed to the TOC's because the sound of Ladbrook Grove, Hatfield, Potters Bar and Southall still rings loud in the public ear.

[ChrisB]

Thameslink & GW^▸ (Great Western) electrification to go, the other two to go ahead with cost cutting.

That's my bet.

[mjones]

Thameslink & GW^▸ (Great Western) electrification to go, the other two to go ahead with cost cutting.

That's my bet.

But as major Thameslink schemes are already under construction, Blackfriars' Bridge in particular, what is left that could sensibly be cancelled?

[ChrisB]

The rolling stock?

[Electric train]

Thameslink & GW^▸ (Great Western) electrification to go, the other two to go ahead with cost cutting.
That's my bet.

But as major Thameslink schemes are already under construction, Blackfriars' Bridge in particular, what is left that could sensibly be cancelled?

The rolling stock?

The next part of the scheme Key Output 2 is London Bridge; Key Output 1 Blackfriars and the central core will not work correctly without this stage.  The next batch of rolling stock has been frozen pending the CSR^▸ (Cab Secure Radio) it is likely the full order of rolling stock will be cut with the train lengths being reduced from the proposed 12 cars this would save an lot of platform extensions and traction power supply upgrading and hence money, Thameslink is I believe over spent in Key Output Stage 1 and Key Output Stage 2 is under the hammer to get it back on budget.

With GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) electrification one would hope HMG would look holistically at the TV, KV and Crossrail services but that is a big ask

[XPT]

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if the GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) electrification gets axed.  But it would annoy me though, especially after all that fuss about it in the press and TV news back in JULY 2009 that the GWML was to be electrified and that work on it would so say start "immediately"!!  When in fact no work was started on it, and it gets axed.

Maybe the title of this thread in the meantime should lose the "gets go-ahead" untill we know what's happening for sure.

[mjones]

It would look pretty poor for one of the country's main inter city routes to still be running diesel trains if huge resources are being spent on building HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s))...

[Chris from Nailsea]

Maybe the title of this thread in the meantime should lose the "gets go-ahead" untill we know what's happening for sure.

That's a fair comment, XPT.

However, just out of courtesy, I'll invite the OP^▸ (Original Poster / topic starter) to comment, before making such a change?

CfN.  

[Electric train]

I suspect the GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) electrification will not be canceled, it will be placed on hold pending re-franchise of the route with electrification being part of the bid.

[IndustryInsider]

I suspect the GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) electrification will not be canceled, it will be placed on hold pending re-franchise of the route with electrification being part of the bid.

Yup, that wouldn't surprise me at all - hinted at by the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) over the summer.  Might be the best solution?

[ChrisB]

Hmm - wouldn't that make for an expensive bid? Surely in these hardened times, HMG would be looking for Premia payments rather than requiring subsidy?
You might get Maidenhead to oxford being offered, but I doubt a bidder would offer much more. How much oes it cost a mile?

[IndustryInsider]

Yes, it certainly has its drawbacks.

Perhaps the next bidder for the Greater Western franchise would agree to fund say 50% of the costs in return for a long franchise of 15-20 years?  After all the current deal originally was to result in premium payments from FGW^▸ (First Great Western) to the Government of ^1.131 billion over the 10-year length, which I think is more than the GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) electrification was slated to cost? 

I know the financial outlook was a little brighter back then, but with repayments spread over 20-years perhaps it would be a realistic way of getting the job done?  First Group (or another winning bidder) would benefit from the effects (cheaper running costs, faster journeys, more capacity) for many years allowing them to justify the expense perhaps?  I do worry about ever more complex funding arrangements though!

[ChrisB]

ONe of the things that came out of the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) Franchise consultation meeting that I attended, was that there are major difficulties, caused by EU^» (European Union - about) legislation, in offering franchises longer than 15 years. The detail wasn't spelt out, but I understood that they'd get a better return overall if they were kept to 15 years or less.

The DfT are therefore realistically looking at terms of 12-15 years going forward.