HS2 - Government proposals, alternative routes and general discussion

[whole diary]

[Bob_Blakey]

Although I realise that no construction will occur for at least a couple of years (or thereabouts) I am extremely pleased that the Government have given HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) the go-ahead. I have read through the arguments, both for and against, and concluded that many of them are just plain wrong.
For what its worth my support for HS2, and high speed rail in general, is based on the following:
Recent history tells us that humankind will have a continuing wish/need to travel (in large numbers) regardless of how much high speed, high quality telecommunications infrastructure is made available.
Whether people like it or not easy-to-get-at oil is running out and the price will continue to rise. This will make medium & long distance travel/transport in private/commercial vehicles powered by the internal combustion engine increasingly unaffordable. I do not believe that biofuels and/or electric vehicles are a solution.
In very simple terms this will result in a requirement for much more capacity on the existing rail network than can possibly be provided without moving large numbers of passengers on to brand new lines.   

[ellendune]

It is a little-reported fact that the high speed trains will not go into the centre of Birmingham at New Street, but will go to a new station on the eastern outskirts of the city.

This will mean passengers for Birmingham centre will need another train journey to get there, devaluing one of the main arguments in favour HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)), in that it will cut down journey times.

Journalist research fail. Or deliberate misinformation to suit the story.

You decide.

I decide "Journalistic research fail".  With all the misinformation around there seems to be no concept that clearing the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) of express trains will leave room perhaps for semi-fasts from places like Shropshire. 

[Btline]

Such a shoddy story from that paper. It is perfectly possible (as set out in Greenguage's report) that current Euston - Wolverhampton trains will get extended to Shrewsbury every hour or so. As for terminating on the Eastern edge - disgraceful.

If you take the 7 minute medium walking speed figure, the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) have still more than doubled the required time. A figure of 5-10 minutes should be given. Preferably 5 (as it only takes 3). I have got off one train and got on another within 5 minutes without rushing plenty of time before.

I'm also sick of hearing about all the cities that are bypassed - no mention that some these places (e.g. Nuneaton) will get more faster and more frequent services on the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line).

[paul7575]

Although I realise that no construction will occur for at least a couple of years (or thereabouts)... 

I reckon the Construction start date is at least 4 years away, because introduction of the Hybrid Bill is not planned until Dec 2013, and that is the last phase 1 milestone in the newly published timetable.  (ie a construction start date is not yet mentioned.)

I'm sure the Hybrid Bill procedure takes at least a year or two to go through both houses following introduction.  I'm trying to work out how long Crossrail took (I see wiki reckons Dec 2005 - July 2008).  I think there are all sorts of hearings and debates over a reasonably long period - that's when objections etc are supposed to be heard. 

I see in the papers the current objectors are briefing about their intention to defeat the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) in the courts over the coming months - they really have got the bit between their teeth...

Paul 

[JayMac]

Leader ^ New rail link is bad news for Shropshire

...

The emphasis of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) is more towards the central and eastern part of the country, rather than the western areas, and so the prospect is for fewer services and a link to the capital for western areas which is actually poorer.

It is a little-reported fact that the high speed trains will not go into the centre of Birmingham at New Street, but will go to a new station on the eastern outskirts of the city.

This will mean passengers for Birmingham centre will need another train journey to get there, devaluing one of the main arguments in favour HS2, in that it will cut down journey times.

Rather than being a link into the heart of the Midlands, it actually bypasses the heart of the Midlands and points northwards and eastwards, an accurate indication of the direction of the planned further extension.

So, at the cost of a huge outlay at a time of austerity, attractive countryside will be blighted for the sake of saving a few minutes. The way air travel has developed has proven that speed is not necessarily king.

HS2 is a modern Concorde which will do nothing good for Shropshire.

The money would be better spend on upgrading and improving existing routes.

One or two replies to the article (posted upthread by Chris from Nailsea) have debunked the misinformation regarding HS2's main Birmingham station. Nice to see the Shropshire Star printing those replies. There's one from a Justin McAree that I was worried had failed the 'right to reply' moderation. Took 'em a while to allow it.....   

.... love the reply from 'David' as well. 

bignosemac (aka Justin McAree) 

[ellendune]

I think I can see where the 15 minutes travel time from Moor Street to New Street comes from. If you ask Google Maps for walking directions it seems to think you you need to follow a one way system and it does not know about the Stephenson Street Entrance.  So the distance is about three times longer than the direct walking route.

[Trowres]

If the trains are 400m long, the walking time will depend significantly upon which part of the train you occupy, and also whether you assume "free-flow" walking speed or against-the-horde-coming-for-the-next-train.

Oh, and what if you have two heavy bags to carry?

[JayMac]

It's for those reasons I was more conservative with my '10 minutes' to New St and '10-15 minutes' to the city centre (Town Hall) when I replied to the article.

Btline has said he's done train to train from Moor St to New Street in under 5 minutes. Rear coach of a HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) train into Curzon Street and onward on foot to New St maybe a push even at 10 minutes. You can bet that the official minimum connection time will be even more conservative.

I was wrong earlier when I stated that the minimum official connection time between Moor St and New St was 15 minutes. Checking with National Rail Enquiries and the person I spoke with stated it was 20 minutes. Whilst the walk may only takes 5-10 or so minutes I guess the rail industry has to allow for many variables when providing official connections. Not unlike cross-London transfers which are also very conservative.

[eightf48544]

Recent comments from my Bucks and OXen friends include mention of at least 20 SSSIs affected by the alingment is this correct or another exageration.

I'm still undecided the score in my challenge to persude me (see previous post) is if SSSIs are affected is currently 2 - 1 in favour. Any more clinchers for the against apart why Euston lets go for a through underground station (as Berlin HBF) between KX and Euston aligned East West. Much easier to operate than a terminal station.

[Btline]

The mitigation saves some ancient woods. The thing is, it's got to go somewhere. There are SSSIs all over the place!

More LIES from newspapers in affected areas. Apparently Phase 1 is costing ^33 billion with more for Phase 2! Plus the usual tripe about it being useless for locals - despite the fact it will relieve pressure on existing commuter services.

[Electric train]

The modern railway industry is very good at protecting its environment, Network Rail has a large number of SSSI's on its land and other forms of protected environments NR^» (Network Rail - home page) has possibly one of the largest number of SSSI of any land owner in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) and they range across the full range of types.  HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) will destroy SSSI's and ancient woodland but measure can be put in place to limit the effects and replace them

[pbc2520]

Any more clinchers for the against apart why Euston lets go for a through underground station (as Berlin HBF) between KX and Euston aligned East West. Much easier to operate than a terminal station.

Hey... or just Camden Road International!  Making use of those southern platforms after all..  I mean, who'll want tube connections when you've got the NLL?  With only a couple of carriages platformed, only a few passengers will manage to get on and off, so existing facilities should suffice.  Passport control?  Pointless... anyone entering illegally won't drift far from North London anyway.  Time to phone Frank Dobson with a Plan.

[Btline]

I remember that Theresa Villers caused outrage by branding Old Oak Common as "Wormwood Scrubs International" when she was in opposition!

[Btline]

It turns out that redoing the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) would have led to several stations getting AXED.

IF the alternatives to HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) suggested by 18 local authorities opposing HS2 were accepted, stations at Atherstone, in North Warwickshire, and Rugeley Trent Valley and Stone, in Staffordshire, would be left without any trains at all, and commuter stations between Leighton Buzzard, Bedfordshire, and London Euston would suffer reduced services. 

There would also be many more standing passengers on trains between London, Milton Keynes and Northampton.

These were among the main findings of a review for the government by Network Rail, which helped confirm Transport Secretary Justine Greening^s decision to go ahead with HS2 this week.

Network Rail was asked to examine the alternatives put forward by the 51M group of local authorities, led by Buckinghamshire County Council, proposing that Pendolinos should be extended to 12 vehicles, including one First Class coach being declassified, plus a range of enhancements to the present infrastructure, including a grade-separated junction near Leighton Buzzard and a new bypass line around Stafford.

Network Rail said its assessment had shown that the level of capacity proposed by 51M was insufficient to accommodate peak demand growth on the West Coast Main Line^s outer and inner suburban services, equating to ^six out of ten peak hour suburban services from London Euston with more passengers than seats resulting in 1,300 suburban passengers standing in the busiest hour every evening in 2026. By 2035 this will have increased to 2,200 passengers. 

"Two of these overcrowded trains would be the outer suburban services to Northampton on the fast lines, resulting in passengers standing for half an hour or more based on the suggested calling pattern,^ said NR^» (Network Rail - home page).

The assessment added: ^The number of services on the slow lines that start at London Euston would be reduced by one train per hour, providing several stations south of Leighton Buzzard with a lower service frequency than today.^

Network Rail said there would be little real increase in overall capacity because some of the additional trains would run on the slow line and be overtaken by later trains, using the fast line, which passengers would opt to use. 

"In the 51M proposition there are nine services per peak hour to Milton Keynes Central, including three long distance trains per hour,^ explained Network Rail. ^However, examination of service patterns shows that two of these services would be overtaken by the fast line trains. Network Rail^s assessment of train loads shows that almost no passengers would use the slow line trains to travel to Milton Keynes Central.^

This is a problem that regularly occurs already with the 18.43 Virgin departure from Euston. Passengers for Milton Keynes crowd onto this train, even though a London Midland service is available offering twice as many seats ^ but it uses the slow line and is overtaken by the Virgin service.

The 51M plans also proposed a new grade-separated junction at Ledburn, near Leighton Buzzard, to switch trains from the fast to slow lines. Network Rail pointed out that ^suburban services that utilise the fast lines would need to be operated using 125mph tilting suburban rolling stock. Such rolling stock does not currently exist and would need to be specified and purchased as new-build stock.^

Lengthening Pendolinos to 12 vehicles ^ compared to the current plan to extend most of the present 9-car trains to 11 ^ would also require ^345 million to be spent on longer platforms.  The most costly, ^70 million, would be at Coventry where major reconstruction of the road overbridges at either end of the station would be necessary, as well as track realignment.

Significant costs would also be incurred at Lancaster (^40 million), Lichfield Trent Valley (^35 million) and at Lockerbie, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Wolverhampton (^15 million each).

51M proposed that Euston-Liverpool services should continue with only 9-car trains, but Network Rail said it is proposing to lengthen two platforms at Lime Street during the next control period.

In addition to longer platforms, maintenance depots would also be affected.

NR said there would have to be ^extensive alterations and re-modelling ^ at depot entry/exit connections and sidings and a general re-modelling of the depot layouts would be necessary to accommodate the longer trains. The availability of additional land to allow depots to expand, where necessary, as a result of the re-modelling required to accommodate the proposed increase in train length is likely to be a key issue.^

Network Rail also rejected the 51M proposals because of the impact of disruption during the construction phase of the necessary infrastructure work.

Its assessment said the proposed enhancements were ^significant infrastructure interventions that would almost certainly require total blockades of the line, similar to that undertaken over a ten year period for the West Coast Route Moidernisation^.

NR pointed out that use of the WCML had grown considerably since the route modernisation and the impact of similarly disruptive works ^would therefore be considerably greater than it was then, and the logistics of moving passengers on alternative routes would be much more difficult.^

It concluded: ^Network Rail considers it unacceptable to undertake a programme of works that would cause this level of disruption on the route to deliver a service that would not solve overcrowding at the southern end of the [West Coast Main Line] route. It would also likely involve a re-modelling of London Euston station.^

Moderator note: Edited to include a link to the quoted article. bignosemac.

[Chris from Nailsea]

From Plastics and Rubber Weekly (no, seriously! ):

^Nimby^ proud boast or grave insult?

Mankind is divided into two categories ^ those who believe that mankind is divided into two categories and those who don^t.

So it is with protestors living along the projected route of the HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) high-speed rail line, just given the green light (pace ongoing legal challenges) for its first London to Birmingham section. European Parliament member Nikki Sinclaire (Independent, West Midlands) is proud to trumpet her ^Not In My BackYard^ status, advancing pretty cogent anti-HS2 arguments. Other local objectors run the same arguments the other way to deny indignantly that they are selfish Luddites, merely peeved that their golf club^s course will be chopped in two.

Leaving Nimbyism aside, even railway guru Christian Wolmar writes sceptically in The Times about the rather low benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR^▸ (Benefit Cost Ratio)) for HS2 of 1.7 ^ just ^1.70 return on every ^1.00 spent. Wolmar can find BCRs of 5 or 6 for some other schemes to boost north-south transport capacity, and hence better uses in cash-strapped Britain for HS2^s ^17bn London to Birmingham cost ^ let alone ^32bn for the full north of England scheme. Whatever the mix of private/public capital, Her Majesty^s Government is bound to make a pig^s ear of the procurement process.

The government business case rests largely on time savings over conventional rail services or car travel. But many of us rail business travellers are happy to work as we go ^ given a guaranteed seat and reliable broadband. So the ^reducing ^dead^ time not working^ argument seems pretty marginal.

HS2 factors I haven^t yet seen debated concern the West Coast Main Line (WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line)) which HS2 would bypass and relieve.

WCML would get a massive capacity boost for passenger trains stopping more often and going a bit slower ^ because the capacity-hungry non-stop expresses will now be on HS2. Also, how about freight ^ all but squeezed off today^s WCML by the intensive but creaking passenger service? Surely there would be a great opportunity here for a modern, entrepreneurial rail freight service. Could be a much bigger benefit for industry than a few minutes shaved off business travel.

So, there are four classes of HS2-aware Brits ^ Proud nimbys, insulted nimbys, non-nimby pros and non-nimby antis. Where do you stand? Hopefully not on a station platform waiting for a delayed train in a freezing gale.