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Author Topic: HS2 - Government proposals, alternative routes and general discussion  (Read 393875 times)
swrural
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« Reply #330 on: April 14, 2013, 20:55:25 »

It seems to me a useful thought process is to consider what one would do without any acknowledgment at all of the need for very high speed (VHS).  Just accept that travellers needing VHS have the option of air (just for the sake of argument and to avoid environmental issues for the moment).

I think that one would say we have a good capacity line from London that goes up the west side of the country, but it is already filling, as it tries to do two jobs, one from the Midlands and one from the North West and Scotland.  We have one up the east side but it is filling too, because it too tries to do two jobs, one to South Yorkshire and one to the north East and Scotland.  We have a line from London that goes up the middle to the East Midlands and South Yorkshire but that is also filling.  So we need extra capacity on all three or otherwise new lines. 

Other than the London lines, we do not have a high speed line from the south west to the Midlands and north and we don't have one from the south east to those same places either.  All of those lines are rammed due to under provision of capacity rather than the absence of lines.  Apart from an embryo VHS line from London, we have no service from other major UK (United Kingdom) cities to the mainland.   From east to west of our island, the lines are there but there is no inter city service, only semi-fast ones and they are rammed too.

The only way out of this is to provide new lines or try and rebuild the old ones (e.g. GCR» (Gloucester - next trains) Woodhead and MR (Midland Railway) Buxton) and provide more trains on them.

Thus:

1.  We need new lines.

2. Any new lines may as well be VHS ones, so do that.  If we intend to connect from our major cities with the mainland or Scotland, then we need VHS lines and services from other than London because of the distances involved. That's how I see it anyway.



   

 
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eightf48544
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« Reply #331 on: May 16, 2013, 11:06:08 »

Just listened to Today had a lot on the NAO (National Audit Office) recently published report on HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)). Basically it queries whther the government has joined up the dots enough to jsutify HS2 particularly the Cost Benefit Ratio.

Since the publication of the onward routes to Manchester and Leeds I am begiinning to doubt whether HS2 is the right answer for rail.

The problem it seems to me is that of geography and the siting of towns. Basically you need stops on a high Speed line to be at least 100 miles apart which as I think I posted before gives you only 3 stops from London to Edinburgh/Glasgow. Birmingham Manchester and Carlise Western Arm. Birmingham Leeds Newcastle Edinburgh Eastern arm. Edinburgh could also be served from the Western arm. Thus Milton Keynes, Coventry, Stoke (Liverpool) Preston  Derby Nottingham Sheffield York. Don't get a look in. Although there are proposed Parkways for some of these towns.

The other problem is that there is very little integration with the existing rail Network with Birminham Leeds and Manchester having their own HS2 stations not served by convential rail. One of the things about European LGVs (Large Goods Vehicle) is that by and large the trains serve the exisitng stations in the City and in many cases they run part of their route on non High Speed Lines. The classic being the Eurostar Ski train. The problem is we don't have the space to put in the necessary junctions to allow say a train to serve say Stoke and Maccelsfield (Manchester) from HS2. Or another juction to do say (Liverpool) Warrington Wigan Preston Lancaster and maybe rejoin North of Lancaster.

I am begging to think that we mifght be better off eleminating some exisitng bottle necks. Welwyn North for a start. Stafford burrowing Junctions 4 track Rugby Birmingham to Roade Junction Long loops on Bristol Line. Even reinstate Bradford North curve. etc. Rather than go all out for a high speed line.

With ERTMs it certainly ought to possible to upgrade GWML (Great Western Main Line), WCML (West Coast Main Line), ECML (East Coast Main Line), in part at least to 140mph running.
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anthony215
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« Reply #332 on: May 16, 2013, 14:33:29 »

Pete Waterman has been on BBC» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) news defending HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) and yes he does raise some very good point.

I do think HS2 would do well when it is opened, we have seen passenger numbers be underestimated on many lines which have been re-opened, the Ebbw Vale branch as an example
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JayMac
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« Reply #333 on: May 17, 2013, 00:10:13 »

I'm still not won over by the pro-HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) arguments.
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« Reply #334 on: May 17, 2013, 01:24:17 »

I'm still not won over by the pro-HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) arguments.

I think the problem is that the pro- HS2  campaigners need to make more noise to promote the positive benefits of HS2, so far all I have seen on tv etc has been the anti-hs2 groups.

Pete Waterman seems to be one of few supporters of HS2 to get much TV time to argue the case for HS2.
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Red Squirrel
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« Reply #335 on: May 17, 2013, 09:12:41 »

I'm still not won over by the pro-HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) arguments.

I am less certain than I was - I'm now only 109% sure we need it.

  • Is it likely that Britain is the only country in the developed world that would not benefit from high speed rail?
  • If personal communications technology means that time spent on the train is now just as productive as time spent in the office, why don't they just park a load of old carriages at local stations and we'll all do our day's work sat in them. No need to move them - think of the energy we'd save!

They can play whatever games they like with the numbers; the truth is that it's a punt. The odds look pretty good to me though.
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ellendune
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« Reply #336 on: May 17, 2013, 09:39:05 »

I'm still not won over by the pro-HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) arguments.

I am less certain than I was - I'm now only 109% sure we need it.

  • Is it likely that Britain is the only country in the developed world that would not benefit from high speed rail?
  • If personal communications technology means that time spent on the train is now just as productive as time spent in the office, why don't they just park a load of old carriages at local stations and we'll all do our day's work sat in them. No need to move them - think of the energy we'd save!

They can play whatever games they like with the numbers; the truth is that it's a punt. The odds look pretty good to me though.

Time spent in the train is nowhere near as productive as other time even with personal communications technology for the following reasons:

a) Very difficult to get a table - I cannot use a laptop in normal seats, my arms are too long for the rake of the seats and I cannot reach the front of the keyboard!
b) Not enough space- no elbow room.
c) Other people distracting me
d) Interacting with people electronically is no substitute for face to face - which is why I would be travelling in the first place!

I would say that I am no more than 25% efficient when on a train. 

Yesterday on a  quiet early afternoon train I was able to get a table, get the laptop out and write up the minutes of the meeting I had just been to, but that is a rarity. Even then I suspect I was only 75% efficient.


The best I can do is catch up on reading.


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eightf48544
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« Reply #337 on: May 17, 2013, 10:53:13 »

I am very glad I did all my business travelling before mobiles and wi fi etc. Jump on the train for the 2 hour run to Derby down to the Resturant Car for breakfast then read or chat with colleagues if more than 1 of us.

Bliss and do you konw it was very rarely that there was even a phone call waitng at the office in Derby. Then back on the late afternoon train, with a beer from the buffet.

But then my productivity was never very high.
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JayMac
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« Reply #338 on: June 18, 2013, 11:57:29 »

From the BBC» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

Quote
HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) rail plans: Think tank raises doubts over value

Demand for the HS2 high-speed rail project has "likely been overestimated", a think tank has said.

A report from the New Economics Foundation (NEF) also said the ^33bn cost does not offer value for money. Evidence that HS2 would promote economic growth or tackle the north-south divide was "limited", it added.

Ministers said demand for long-distance rail travel was growing and HS2 would "support thousands of jobs and billions of pounds worth of economic benefits".

The NEF said the government had "backed the wrong horse" and the money would be better spent on a "wider range of transport investments".

A recent National Audit Office (NAO) report has also questioned the business case and the funding for HS2.

"Demand for HS2 has likely been overestimated by oversimplified government modelling," the NEF said.

It said the project would be "carbon intensive and environmentally damaging", and it was "time to invest in transport away from London".

'A gamble'

The foundation suggested alternatives for the HS2 expenditure. It claimed:

  • ^10bn could transform rail infrastructure in northern England and the Midlands, creating new and faster east-west rail links, redeveloping stations and electrifying regional rail lines
  • ^10bn could overhaul the East and West Coast main lines, increasing the speed, capacity and reliability of north-south rail travel with less environmental damage than HS2
  • ^6bn could upgrade mass transport in Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool, including investments in large light rail schemes and bus networks
  • ^4.5bn could roll-out superfast fibre optic broadband across the country, which would boost business, reduce pressure on transport and "future-proof" British infrastructure
  • ^2bn could make cities outside London better for cycling and walking

David Theiss, a researcher at the NEF, said: "HS2 is the largest transport investment in the UK (United Kingdom)'s history. At the moment it amounts to a ^33bn gamble. Our research shows the government is backing the wrong horse," he said. "Instead of pouring billions of pounds into a single line that will take 20 years to complete we should be spreading our bets on a wider range of transport investments that offer better value for money."

But transport minister Simon Burns said: "Demand for long-distance rail travel has doubled to 125 million journeys a year in the past 15 years and by the mid-2020s the West Coast Main Line will be completely full.

"HS2 will provide the capacity needed in a way that will support thousands of jobs and billions of pounds worth of economic benefits."

He went on: "It is not a case of HS2 and nothing else. During 2014-19 we are investing over ^9bn on the current rail network, while latest figures show that over a one year period we spent upwards of ^8.7bn on our roads."

The Department for Transport says phase one of HS2 will cut London to Birmingham travel to 49 minutes, from the current one hour and 24 minutes. This will be followed by a Y-shaped second phase, taking services on from Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds.

This is intended to virtually halve journey times between Birmingham and Manchester - to 41 minutes - and between London and Manchester from two hours and eight minutes to one hour and eight minutes.

Speeds of up to 250mph on HS2 would reduce a Birmingham to Leeds journey from two hours to 57 minutes.

It is hoped the first trains will run on the HS2 line around 2026.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2013, 12:17:07 by bignosemac » Logged

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paul7575
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« Reply #339 on: June 18, 2013, 12:10:51 »

Thing is, just about anyone can set up a suitable sounding name for their organisation, a website, and call themselves a director or researcher or whatever.

That's after all how people such as Paul Withrington, Director of 'Transport Watch' managed to get coverage in the likes of the Telegraph in the past.   But how much credibility should their 'reports' be given?

BTW (by the way) I see the 'Institute of Economic Affairs' mentioned here: http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=12549.0
is also linked to from the bottom of Mr Withrington's list of topics on his 'Transport Watch' home page.  Coincidence?

Paul
« Last Edit: June 18, 2013, 12:16:24 by paul7755 » Logged
JayMac
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« Reply #340 on: June 18, 2013, 12:24:24 »

The New Economics Foundation are a bit more than just a 'whatever'.

They've been around since 1986, have charitable status and are free of any political bias and influence from special interests. Their funding is a lot more transparent than that of the IEF's.

Their report should be given just as much credibility as any pro-HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) one.
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grahame
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« Reply #341 on: June 18, 2013, 13:05:58 »

BTW (by the way) I see the 'Institute of Economic Affairs' mentioned here: http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=12549.0
is also linked to from the bottom of Mr Withrington's list of topics on his 'Transport Watch' home page.  Coincidence?

The New Economics Foundation are a bit more than just a 'whatever'.

At a very quick glance, the New Economics Foundation may be asking questions on an initially thought-through alternative, whereas some of the other folks are suggesting thing which look pretty impractical to me, as has been pointed out in other posts - "How on earth could you ..."

I do find it interesting that the New Economics Foundation specifically singles out North/South, non-London/regional and Birmingham/Leeds/Manchester/Liverpool.  Missing are London to South Wales and the South West, and Bristol / Cardiff / Plymouth.  Perhaps because they're looking for direct HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) benefit replacement, or are we the forgotten corner again?
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eightf48544
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« Reply #342 on: July 06, 2013, 09:48:57 »

interesting comment in Modern Railways by Chris Gibb (Virgin) who reckons with abit of tweaking to 135 mph from Lancaster North he can get to Glagow in 4 hours by Pendelino. However, he comments when HS (High Speed (short for HSS (High Speed Services) High Speed Services)) trains start to run from Rugely or Lancaster off HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) onto teh WCML (West Coast Main Line) as they are non tilting they willbe limited to 110. Thus reducing teh capacity on teh WCML. DOH!
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« Reply #343 on: August 18, 2013, 13:40:09 »

HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) most definitely in the news today, with the Institute for Economic Affairs claiming that costs could reach almost double the current estimate, and the Campaign for the Protection of Rural England claiming that construction would affect the lives of more than half a million people - this Guardian article is a good summarizer.

Also worth noting that the IEA report argues that their claimed ^80bn HS2 price tag could deliver ^320bn of value if spent on other projects. I suspect though, that road schemes would figure rather more prominently in the IEA proposals than the Squirrel Formula would allow...
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« Reply #344 on: August 18, 2013, 16:40:27 »

HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) most definitely in the news today, with the Institute for Economic Affairs claiming that costs could reach almost double the current estimate, and the Campaign for the Protection of Rural England claiming that construction would affect the lives of more than half a million people - this Guardian article is a good summarizer.

Also worth noting that the IEA report argues that their claimed ^80bn HS2 price tag could deliver ^320bn of value if spent on other projects. I suspect though, that road schemes would figure rather more prominently in the IEA proposals than the Squirrel Formula would allow...

IEA don't have a political agenda do they  Roll Eyes they are about as unbiased as The Morning Star    Grin
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