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Author Topic: HS2 - Government proposals, alternative routes and general discussion  (Read 394081 times)
JayMac
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« Reply #390 on: August 25, 2013, 10:01:42 »

The ^42.6 bn is still the estimate. ^50.1 bn is the budget. The difference includes contingency.

The difference in those figures isn't contingency. An additional ^7.5bn is for rolling stock. Whilst public utterences from Ministers regularly fail to include the rolling stock cost in the total, it is there in HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) Ltd's figures and in Hansard.

The total cost of phases one and two plus the rolling stock is ^50.1bn, which includes ^16.1bn of contingency. That would make the estimate ^34bn which does, on paper, look a lot better. But with Treasury insiders forecasting a total cost of ^73bn (unknown if contingency is included in that) the project could well exceed the current forecasted ^50.1bn.

The problem with large contingency is it can lead to a lax control over spending, rather than a tight control on budget and with little incentive to identify cost savings. "The money's there, so we can spend it."

As for the Olympics, final accounts won't be released until the Olympic Delivery Authority is wound up in 2014. Latest figures, released in July 2013 predict that the final cost to the public purse will be ^528million under budget. Contingency for the Olympics was just over ^1bn. So based on current predictions over half of the contingency fund will have been spent. And there's still a very large chunk of the sale price of the Olympic Village (over ^400million) that has yet to be paid.
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« Reply #391 on: August 25, 2013, 10:46:14 »

My concern over HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) now is not the cost, most accept its going to be in the order of ^40B +- the odd ^10B (ish), the real risk to HS2 is politicians posturing in the lead up to the next general election they all see it being fought on low public spending so none of them will want to commit to large price tag public items,

Exactly my point. We either need a new railway or we don't, and the evidence is firmly that we do. Not building something would be irresponsible, since the need would not go away, so would need to be done another day, and will inevitably cost more.

Is it a large price tag with marginal BCR (Benefit Cost Ratio)? The cost will not be evenly spread over the years of planning and construction. Land acquisition will be done at the start, and will be a sizeable chunk. Phase 2 is planned to be up and running in 2033, so the annual cost, if the whole costs ^70 billion, will be ^3.5 billion. The risk is clearly of spiralling costs eating up resources so that this becomes the only railway project in the country, and that would be awful. But Network Rail is proving to be better at managing costs than Railtrack before it, and projects are being finished on time and on budget more and more these days than before. That gives me hope that the total cost will not come as a shock, whatever it is. Planning for other projects can then be done with this in mind.
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« Reply #392 on: August 25, 2013, 11:01:40 »

I too remain definitely undecided on HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) - if I'm going to take a position I like to do it from a strong and balanced knowledge which I feel I lack in this case. I do note that Andrew Adonis is speaking very strongly in favour ...

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/08/exclusive-adonis-hits-back-hs2-critics-and-warns-labour-not-abandon-support?

I have a huge respect for Andrew - he's a former secretary of state for Transport and from initial concerns when he came to that role, he rapidly gained a very great deal of respect in many quarters. 
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TonyK
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« Reply #393 on: August 25, 2013, 11:44:52 »


I have a huge respect for Andrew - he's a former secretary of state for Transport and from initial concerns when he came to that role, he rapidly gained a very great deal of respect in many quarters. 

And so have I. My respect increased as I read the article, and thank you for the link, grahame. The New Statesman is not my chip-wrapper of choice.

Lord Adonis showed that he is more than just a political animal when he took the transport portfolio. His tour of Britain by train, and the subsequent published musings served to show that he has knowledge, passion, and pragmatism in the correct proportions, and was a safe pair of hands for such a crucial role. He is a skilled communicator, and is not afraid to point out the earlier failings of his own party.

I am also developing respect for Patrick McLoughlin, and not just for his humble origins. The arguments he made after the Darling outburst are exactly the ones made by the noble lord. He speaks for the coalition as well as the Conservative party, and despite Lord Adonis' criticism of the slow pace of action, and his gentle dig about Labour having much to do in 2015 to get the project firmly established, there is clear unanimity at the top level of the three parties. 

So a project with more history than the Labour announcement in 2010 was called in by a cash-strapped coalition looking for big savings, examined by a Tory grandee and still found to be essential. This episode shows just how much transport policy has to rise above politics. If I ever get the chance to found my National Infrastructure Authority, I shall ask Lord Adonis and Patrick McLoughlin to head it.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2013, 18:29:09 by Four Track, Now! » Logged

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« Reply #394 on: August 25, 2013, 11:58:48 »

For my two penn'orth, I surprise myself with my ambivalence about this project.

The cost, oddly, is not my main concern. We either need it or we don't; if we need it then we have to find the money. I am however intrigued by the change in emphasis that has taken place (it's no longer about speed, it's the capacity stoopid); I am always a bit suspicious when arguments change. However I'm also aware that adding capacity to existing parallel routes has already been done at huge cost and disruption, and that adding more capacity to those routes would be even more expensive and disruptive.

What bothers me is that ever since Beeching, the railway has focused on getting people in and out of London. London, uniquely, kept almost all its commuter lines; the further you got from London the deeper Beeching's cuts were. This has amplified the process of centralisation that has damaged the ecomony of most of the country outside the southeast. I worry that HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) could be an extension of the London-centric mindset. If it is then it is without doubt taking us in the wrong direction.

I have taken a certain amount of flak on this forum for applying the simplistic 'Squirrel Formula' to cost re-opening various provincial routes. Often the strongest argument against a potential re-opening is that funds are limited, and we have to prioritise. But a major problem for this country is the under-supply of housing, leading to hugely inflated house prices. Meanwhile all over the country are communities that have become moribund as a direct result of the Marples/Castle axe. I suggest that the argument for reconnecting them to quality public transport (===rail) is a strong one, especially if fibre broadband was run along the tracks at the same time.

All rail investment is a punt; always has been. But investment in new provincial rail connections could actually reduce the requirement for commuting into London, which would free up capacity on the overcrowded routes, as well as making better use of skills and labour currently sitting on its hands in the regions.

Edit: typo

« Last Edit: August 25, 2013, 12:05:21 by Red Squirrel » Logged

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« Reply #395 on: August 25, 2013, 12:46:39 »

I hope other contributors are appreciating FTN's input, grasp of the complex issues involved in this project and his clarity in explaining things so well!  I find his contributions are like shafts of brilliant sunshine cutting through an impenetrable fog. Long may they continue ! They could do with him on board ! Are there any other members of the FTN fan club out there ?
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« Reply #396 on: August 25, 2013, 13:02:43 »

For my two penn'orth, I surprise myself with my ambivalence about this project.

The cost, oddly, is not my main concern. We either need it or we don't; if we need it then we have to find the money. I am however intrigued by the change in emphasis that has taken place (it's no longer about speed, it's the capacity stoopid); I am always a bit suspicious when arguments change. However I'm also aware that adding capacity to existing parallel routes has already been done at huge cost and disruption, and that adding more capacity to those routes would be even more expensive and disruptive.

What bothers me is that ever since Beeching, the railway has focused on getting people in and out of London. London, uniquely, kept almost all its commuter lines; the further you got from London the deeper Beeching's cuts were. This has amplified the process of centralisation that has damaged the ecomony of most of the country outside the southeast. I worry that HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) could be an extension of the London-centric mindset. If it is then it is without doubt taking us in the wrong direction.

I have taken a certain amount of flak on this forum for applying the simplistic 'Squirrel Formula' to cost re-opening various provincial routes. Often the strongest argument against a potential re-opening is that funds are limited, and we have to prioritise. But a major problem for this country is the under-supply of housing, leading to hugely inflated house prices. Meanwhile all over the country are communities that have become moribund as a direct result of the Marples/Castle axe. I suggest that the argument for reconnecting them to quality public transport (===rail) is a strong one, especially if fibre broadband was run along the tracks at the same time.

All rail investment is a punt; always has been. But investment in new provincial rail connections could actually reduce the requirement for commuting into London, which would free up capacity on the overcrowded routes, as well as making better use of skills and labour currently sitting on its hands in the regions.

Much food for thought there RS. Might be climbing off the fence fully into the anti- camp after reading that.
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« Reply #397 on: August 25, 2013, 13:03:58 »

I have found FTN's, BNM's and indeed other contributions helpful in making me realise that HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) demands a far from simplistic 'yes/no' response as long-term vision, short-term economics and practicality all vie with each other for the clinching argument.  The fence is getting rather crowded as I have climbed up it from a strongly pro start and I am now definitely sitting astride with others.

Capacity can be addressed with cheaper solutions and, IMHO (in my humble opinion), very few journeys perhaps need a vastly reduced journey time.  Eurostar, TGV (Train a Grande Vitesse), ICE, Thalys etc, all offer a step change in travel from that which we have domestically, but they link cities across long stretches of comparatively low-density population.

If it ever arrives, I suspect I would be one of the first on it, though.  Smiley
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« Reply #398 on: August 25, 2013, 13:46:01 »

The need for capacity has always been the corner stone of HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)), it's just that the speed has been emphasised the thought that 200 mph trains would sell.

I am sure through Busk, Herts, Warwick where the existing WCML (West Coast Main Line) runs selling HS2 as an increase in their train services would change the campaign. 
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« Reply #399 on: August 25, 2013, 14:45:01 »

Capacity can be addressed with cheaper solutions and, IMHO (in my humble opinion), very few journeys perhaps need a vastly reduced journey time. 

The starting point for HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) was when, after the experience of the WCML (West Coast Main Line) route modernisation, it became clear that making alterations to a live railway was incredibly expensive.

There are schemes that can be done to provide additional capacity on existing lines for example (yes I will have missed some). 

  • On the ECML (East Coast Main Line) there is 4 tracking the Welwyn viaduct and from Huntingdon to Peterborough, grade separated junctions at Peterborough, Grantham etc (Hitchin has just been completed). A bridge to replace the flat crossing at Newark. Better use of the route through Lincoln.
  • On the WCML there might be completing the 4 track on the Trent Valley (adding one extra track), Grade separation around Stafford and at Rugeley. Possibly even 4 tracking from Rugby to Birmingham.

Some of these are already planned and some are even in progress.  Fundamentally though they will not provide the amount of additional capacity required.  To provide the amount of additional capacity required you need another pair of tracks to the North.

The main lesson from the WCML route modernisation was that if you are going to do provide another pair of tracks it is going to be cheaper to do this on a new route. If it is to be on a new route it either needs to be a line for fast passenger services or a freight route as these do not have to go through so many of the existing places on the current route.

Since the speed of freight fits in quite well with semi fast passenger services without loosing capacity (remember a line is at its highest capacity when all trains travel at the same speed), the obvious choice is the fast passenger services.

Up to this point I think there should be a consensus.  The question that is open to debate, in my opinion, should be what speeds do design this line for. 

Other European Countries have addressed the capacity issue by building high speed lines.  The density of population issue is an issue in France, Germany and Spain, but clearly not in Belgium and the Netherlands, though you could argue that Belgian High Speed lines are just routes to Netherlands and Germany.

I believe the question we should be asking is how much is the extra speed on the route costing and what are the benefits of that?  The cost of a high speed line is not ^42.6 bn. We should say that of the ^42.6 bn estimate for the line, ^x bn is to provide capacity and ^y bn is to increase the speed above 125 mph. (NB I deliberately use ^42.6bn estimated price of the line see my earlier post)

I would be very interested in the answer.
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« Reply #400 on: August 25, 2013, 15:02:06 »

Picking up on the point Red Squirrel made earlier....

Addressing the current need to travel to and from London by targeted regional investment (a broad investment plan, not just rail) will address capacity on the WCML (West Coast Main Line). I believe it's only south of Rugby where capacity is the issue.

Job creation, housing, other public transport. Greatly improve those in the regions and you cut the need to travel to and from London.
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« Reply #401 on: August 25, 2013, 15:10:50 »

Addressing the current need to travel to and from London by targeted regional investment (a broad investment plan, not just rail) will address capacity on the WCML (West Coast Main Line). I believe it's only south of Rugby where capacity is the issue.

This is the case now but other points on the network the problem is not far behind. HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) (if we are still to call it that) is to address capacity requirements further into the future. There is also capacity issues on the ECML (East Coast Main Line) which I think go further North. 

Job creation, housing, other public transport. Greatly improve those in the regions and you cut the need to travel to and from London.

Couldn't agree more, but I don't see any politicians in Westminster of any party with serious proposals to make this happen.  Now perhaps if we moved the capital to somewhere further North...

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« Reply #402 on: August 25, 2013, 16:22:51 »

Now perhaps if we moved the capital to somewhere further North...

So, Brennard Farm in the Forest of Bowland, Lancs, then?

http://blog.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/2012/01/where-is-the-centre-of-great-britain/

Isn't is reassuring to know that this Executive Agency of HMG has spent time in attempting to answer this very important question?  Lips sealed Tongue Grin
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« Reply #403 on: August 25, 2013, 16:47:46 »

Now perhaps if we moved the capital to somewhere further North...

So, Brennard Farm in the Forest of Bowland, Lancs, then?

http://blog.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/2012/01/where-is-the-centre-of-great-britain/

Isn't is reassuring to know that this Executive Agency of HMG has spent time in attempting to answer this very important question?  Lips sealed Tongue Grin


Somewhere around there would be fine by me.  Perhaps a bit nearer to a main railway line though. 
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« Reply #404 on: August 25, 2013, 21:37:18 »

A very good summary of the present political situation, from the BBC» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

Quote
HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) chief says Labour still backs project

The chief executive of the company implementing the HS2 railway project has said she believes Labour is still strongly supportive of the scheme.

Alison Munro acknowledged that HS2 would not be viable unless there was political consensus about its merits.

Senior Labour figures have voiced concerns about HS2's rising budget.

But former Labour transport secretary Lord Adonis warned his party not to give in to the "intense" temptation to cancel the scheme. That would be an "act of national self-mutilation", he wrote, in an article for the New Statesman.

The HS2 scheme entails building a new high-speed rail link from London to Birmingham and to Manchester and Leeds.

The project's initial phase was approved in principle under the previous Labour government, and the scheme has had the backing of all three main party leaders since its conception - despite strong opposition among some backbench MPs (Member of Parliament).

Chancellor George Osborne has predicted the high-speed rail network will be an "engine for growth" for the north of England and the Midlands.

Deputy Prime Minister and Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg has suggested the scheme could help to "heal the north-south divide".

But on Friday, former Labour chancellor and transport secretary Alistair Darling said he was withdrawing his support for it. He warned of a potential "nightmare" for the rest of the rail network as a rise in HS2's budget from ^32bn to ^42.6bn would drain cash from other lines.

Another former Labour cabinet minister, Lord Mandelson, has warned the scheme could prove to be "an expensive mistake".

Asked about Mr Darling's comments, Ms Munro told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "I should point out that Maria Eagle, who is the Labour transport spokesperson, yesterday confirmed her very strong support for HS2."

Opposition leader Ed Miliband has also said he is a "supporter" of the HS2 rail project but it should be scrutinised for "value for money".

But shadow chancellor Ed Balls told the BBC on Friday that he was concerned that the budget had gone "up and up". He said: "We have consistently supported plans for a north-south rail link but it's got to work, it's got to be value for money." A future Labour government would not offer the scheme a "blank cheque", he added.

But Ms Munro responded: "We are not asking for a blank cheque and we don't have a blank cheque." She added: "I'd really like to knock on the head this talk of costs spiralling out of control. That is simply not true."

Ms Munro went on: "The current budget is ^42.6bn for the infrastructure and ^7.5bn for the rolling stock. We are absolutely determined, and the government is too, now to manage the project within that cost envelope."

The new budget included a ^14bn contingency fund, she said, but HS2 Ltd was "determined" not to use it.

Supporters of HS2 argue that aside from shorter journey times, the main argument in favour of the project is the need to greatly increase passenger capacity.

Lord Adonis said the scheme was "going through the classic 'cold feet' period which bedevils every major British infrastructure project and which, with our short-termist political culture and poor project management, often leads to them being cancelled". He continued: "This phase will continue until the 2015 election, when the temptation for Labour to claim it is 'saving' ^42bn by proposing to cancel a 'Tory' project will be intense."

The peer warned Mr Miliband not to repeat the mistakes of the Labour government in 1974 which cancelled both the Channel Tunnel and a new London airport in the Thames Estuary. "They were dubbed 'Tory extravagance' although, like HS2, their origins lay in the previous Labour government and there was nothing remotely right-wing about them," he said. "It would be a similar act of national self-mutilation to cancel HS2 in 2015, six years into the project."

Construction on the London-West Midlands phase is expected to begin around 2017, once Parliament has approved the necessary powers - probably in 2015.

The onward legs to Manchester and Leeds could start being built in the middle of the next decade, with the line open by 2032-33.
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