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Author Topic: HS2 - Government proposals, alternative routes and general discussion  (Read 394030 times)
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« Reply #405 on: August 25, 2013, 21:50:55 »

There are teams in NR» (Network Rail - home page) working now to produce the HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) NR interfaces input to the hybrid bill planned for 2015 not to mention a number of consultancies that are working on the main route of HS2.

The planning for HS2 is actually quite advanced, the challenge will be 2015 which in May sees a General Election so which side of this will it be, current Government ........ may not want to rock the boat with its heartland through Bucks and War, incoming Government could use the excuse not enough Parliamentary time, if its a collation it will take several months for them to agree how many spoons of sugar to have in their tea let alone anything else, even worse if its a hung Parliament
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« Reply #406 on: August 26, 2013, 01:27:06 »

From The Telegraph:

Quote from: The Telegraph
HS2 has the power to inspire a generation

This 20-year project will expand our engineering skills base and create good jobs , writes Pete Waterman

Over the recent weeks, I have watched in amazement as a series of London-based commentators have made claim after claim about High Speed Two ^ each competing with the other to make more and more outlandish predictions. It won^t surprise you that my long-held view is that entrepreneurs invest in the future while politicians manage the moment.

But all these noises off obscure why the UK (United Kingdom) needs HS2. The fact is, and there^s no getting round it, Britain^s railways have seldom been more popular. Twice as many train journeys are made today as 20 years ago ^ 1.5 billion. Not since before the Second World War has the train taken so much strain, and the network is considerably smaller now. HS2 will mark the UK^s rail renaissance. We have to do it now in order to reap the rewards of our full economic potential in the 21st century.

Now, you might wonder how a pop music producer is qualified to comment on the musings of illustrious former ministers and think-tank economists. The fact is that as a successful entrepreneur, someone who grew up with railways and understands the economic needs of the Midlands and the North, I have a unique viewpoint from which to comment.

My first big breakthrough came when the railway from Coventry to London was electrified in the 1960s and the new connectivity meant I could reach the capital in roughly an hour, inspiring me to build up a business in London but allowing me to take my earnings back to spend in Coventry.

Last weekend the media reported that 500,000 people would be affected by construction traffic and villages up to 40 miles from the route would be blighted after the Campaign to Protect Rural England published information supplied to it by HS2 Ltd. It wasn^t true: CPRE (Campaign to Protect Rural England) supports HS2 on the basis of its being a sustainable transport scheme, and its chief executive, Shaun Spiers, clarified that last week.

We also saw the Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA) publish a report that claimed the cost of HS2 was set to reach ^80 billion. To get to that figure it lumped in ^30 billion of other transport schemes which, it admitted elsewhere in the report, would probably never be built. This was quite rightly dismissed by HS2^s chief executive, Alison Munro, as ''absurd^.

Now, I am no economist; but even I can see that writing a list of projects that are not part of HS2, and then stating that they add ^30 billion to the cost figures published by the Department for Transport and approved by Treasury mandarins, cannot be given any real credibility.

What I can say with certainty is that the economies of northern England and the Midlands are playing an important part in the recovery of the UK from recession. Liverpool has the second fastest growing economy in the country, while Leeds has a vibrant city centre and Sheffield has attracted investment in advanced manufacturing to beat off competition from other European cities.

Private companies like Tata understand that they need to invest heavily to keep their products competitive. VW has just announced ^1 billion of investment in its Bentley car plant in Crewe, creating 1,000 jobs. We know that successful economies rely on efficient and reliable transport links. All of these cities will be served by HS2 and I am convinced they will thrive through the vastly improved connections it will bring.

I do not want to look back in 20 years and say: why on earth did we pass up the opportunity to transform our country through building a world-class, high-speed rail network providing the capacity for growth. But HS2 can be so much more.

I want the schoolchildren of the North-west to be captivated and inspired to take up careers in construction and engineering, and for the students at universities in Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield and Birmingham, to have the opportunity to choose where they work once they graduate.

HS2 is a 20-year programme that could transform the skills base of the country. We lament how few young people go into engineering and science. Today more than a quarter of our science, technology, engineering and maths graduates go on to take non-engineering jobs. The project will be beacon for any young person looking to the future and deciding what to study.

Through building HS2 we have a golden opportunity to expand greatly an engineering skills base that for years we thought could ebb away entirely.

High Speed Two has been predicted to create 400,000 jobs and 2,000 apprenticeships. Twenty thousand people will be employed during construction. It already provides valuable employment for 800 graduate engineers who are designing the railway and minimising its environmental impact.

None of the alternatives promoted by the London-centric commentators comes close to delivering that kind of opportunity for people all over the UK to get into work. That^s why I am a passionate supporter of HS2 as an engine for growth. Put simply we cannot afford not to build HS2.

Pete Waterman is a member of the HS2 Growth Taskforce
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« Reply #407 on: August 26, 2013, 11:06:18 »



So, Brennard Farm in the Forest of Bowland, Lancs, then?



Nice place. I used to take Sunday afternoon motor bike rides around the Forest and the Trough of Bowland.

EDIT: I have now read through the Pete Waterman piece. He may have given us Kylie Minogue's "I should be so lucky", but there is some good in the man, even so.

He makes points that should be coming from Government, rather than record-producing rail enthusiasts. There are rumours flying around, about the massive effect on communities that are exaggerated or just plain wrong. The same goes for the cost, leading the Labour party to announce a ^50 bn cap on the project. Whether, if they win power in 2015, they will be able to keep to that figure is a moot point, because no-one knows what will happen to the costs of materials, or what snags will be hit, or what a whole lot of other things will do. It is a good move to make it obvious that costs will not be allowed to rise uncontrollably. Previous projects have had a tendency to cost whatever the budget is, plus 10% or more. I think government in all its guises is getting better at managing that aspect, and there is greater cause for optimism on the financial front. Plus, Chief Executive of HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) Alison Munro said:

Quote
"The current budget is ^42.6bn for the infrastructure and ^7.5bn for the rolling stock. We are absolutely determined, and the government is too, now to manage the project within that cost envelope."

The new budget included a ^14bn contingency fund, she said, but HS2 Ltd was "determined" not to use it.

As to the value of the project itself to the national good or bad, I simply don't have the knowledge or expertise to offer an opinion independently, so rely on reading the experts' views as impartially as I can. In doing so, I look not just at what is being said, but at who is saying it, and his previous track record. I place greater value on the views of Lord Adonis, Patrick McLoughlin and Pete Waterman than I do on the utterances of Alistair Darling mainly because of the latter's timid attitude to rail projects, and over-obsession with costs. Rail projects are hugely expensive, but tend to give real benefits far beyond the projections assumed in planning. The possible exception to that is the Channel Tunnel, where more optimistic forecasts needed to be used for political expediency, but even now, there is talk of building another.

Come what may, we will still need to transport people and goods around the country in 20 years time. In the post-Beeching era, we built roads rather than railways, and watched them fill up as soon as the ribbon was cut. In the post-post-Beeching era, we realise that roads can cause as many problems as they solve, and we are turning again to building railways. Railways are sustainable, according to Waterman and the CPRE (Campaign to Protect Rural England). By that, I assume he means that they cause less damage than roads for the quantity delivered, are more energy efficient, and can use a variety of forms of generating motive power. No-one is suggesting that we reopen every line, but surely HS2 would not have gained the support it has if it were nothing more than a political vanity project?

I have a suggestion for Patrick McLoughlin. He needs to demonstrate that HS2 will not simply suck up all the available money for transport. There is no better way to do this than to bring forward some other much-needed rail projects. In my local area, I suggest Portishead, improvements to capacity on the Severn Beach line, and on Filton Bank, of course, Four Track, Now!
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« Reply #408 on: August 27, 2013, 00:10:07 »

From The Guardian:

Quote from: The Guardian
HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) is certainly not for northerners' benefit

The way to build up the north is to improve rail links between its towns. Trains to London are fast enough already

The HS2 rail project is often trumpeted as helping to connect the north to Britain's wealthier south. Northerners, it seems, are expected to rejoice at the fact they can commute to well-paying jobs in the south-east without having to up sticks. But the more we learn about the project, the clearer it becomes that those at the northern end of the line won't be the main beneficiaries.

The fact is, it's already quick enough for Londoners to get to Manchester, Liverpool or Leeds, or vice versa: the real barrier isn't time, it's the one in the mind. I've lived in the north-west on and off for several years, eventually settling in Liverpool last year. The daily experience of getting into the city, or of getting from one northern town to another, is to be reminded of how much better, and how much more urgently, that ^42bn or ^50bn or ^80bn cost of HS2 can be spent. We have ancient, mucky trains; frequent breakdowns; no possibility of a direct train to Glasgow or Bristol. If you live 20 miles in the wrong direction outside Manchester you have no chance of getting to work in the city without owning a car.

The difference in quality between existing intercity travel from south to north, and the vital daily branch-line travel between northern towns and cities, is a reflection of central government's priorities. It sees growth as an exclusively south-eastern engine which, in its great munificence, powers the rest of the country ^ which must make do with a sliver of London's transport spending and find ways to milk the capital rather than build itself up.

Former transport secretary Lord Adonis, who defended the project on Saturday, seems to be more focused on maintaining an inflated perception of Britain's power and status than on improving people's daily lives. The Channel tunnel link, which he cites as an example of infrastructural investment that was put off for too long, still carries far fewer passengers than were predicted upon its opening in 1994. By the same token, HS2 trains may end up carting hordes of bumless seats from London to Manchester in double-quick time.

Comparisons with Europe are flawed. France and Spain need high-speed rail because they are enormous countries: the only really beneficial British equivalent would be from, say, London to Glasgow or Penzance without stopping. Our country is small enough to cross in a day without any particular need for greater speed.

Moreover, the great gains in faster journey times from the north to London have already been made. When I started travelling between London and Liverpool 15 years ago, it took three hours; now it takes two, which goes in the time it takes to find my seat, eat a sandwich and, for a sublime hour or so, watch cows, sheep and canals roll past and be reminded that most of the country is still actually green.But there are times when shorter journeys do matter, not least when you're stuck on a 30-year-old Northern Rail relic and the only toilet has broken down. The densely populated urban corridor lying between Liverpool and Hull has the potential to make London, or at least its self-aggrandising role as national benefactor, seem irrelevant. A fraction of the investment proposed for HS2 would transform connections between towns and cities that have effectively been written off as producers of their own jobs and wealth. Research by the Centre for Cities showed that upgrading the line between Bradford and Manchester and improving the trans-Pennine rail route would, among other transport improvements, produce economic benefits to the Leeds region in the hundreds of millions.

If Britain does need a high-speed route from north to south, it's so we can make space on the existing mainlines for stopping trains and freight. And if there's any part of the country that really needs faster journeys, it's Wales and the south-west of England, both economically isolated and in desperate need of inward investment. No one seriously needs to get to Birmingham from London any faster than the 70 minutes it currently takes. Relax, guys: Selfridges stays open till 8pm.

Here are some Letters containing more views on HS2, including reaction to the above article.
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« Reply #409 on: August 27, 2013, 00:17:32 »

From The Guardian:

Quote from: The Guardian
HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) high-speed rail project is grand folly, say business leaders

Institute of Directors claims there is no business case for the line linking London with Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds

The Institute of Directors (IoD» (Institute of Directors - about)) has urged ministers to abandon the "grand folly" of the ^50bn HS2 high-speed rail project, saying little more than a quarter of its members believe it will prove value for money.

The IoD's head, Simon Walker, said the business case for the line linking London with Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds over the next 20 years "simply is not there".

The call comes amid increasing unease among MPs (Member of Parliament) about the scheme, which the thinktank the Institute of Economic Affairs has warned could see costs spiral to ^80bn.

Labour has made it clear that the bill for the line and rolling stock should rise no further, while the other main business organisation, the CBI, said in June that investors and taxpayers needed confidence the business case was watertight and costs would be controlled.

Walker, publishing a survey of more than 1,300 business leaders, argued that the money could be better spent elsewhere. "Station upgrades, inter-city improvements, tunnels, electrification and capacity improvements should all be considered alternatives. It is time for the government to look at a thousand smaller projects instead of falling for one grand folly," he said.

IoD members have growing concerns that the line will benefit London more than the regions for which HS2 supporters claim it offers a lifeline. Even when the costs of the scheme were said to be just over ^30bn, at the start of the year, the organisation was warning that businesses needed convincing of its economic value.

Although Labour leaders still support the scheme, former grandees Lord Mandelson and Alistair Darling have said it should be scrapped. Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, said on Friday that there would be no "blank cheque" from a Labour Treasury.

However, Lord Adonis, the former Labour transport secretary who was architect of the scheme and is now head of a review on economic growth, has said any move by Labour to drop the scheme would be "an act of self-mutilation". He has consistently argued that upgrading existing lines would be hugely expensive and disruptive, providing far less additional capacity than building new lines.

Coalition ministers plan to introduce legislation to clear the way for phase one of HS2, to Birmingham, this year ^ with construction beginning in 2017 ^ after the appeal court dismissed arguments from local councils, residents' associations and other objectors along the first part of the line that proper environmental assessments had not been made. However, the protesters still believe a successful appeal to the supreme court could stop HS2 or delay it for years.

According to the government timetable the West Midlands part of the line would be ready in 2026, with the full Y-shaped route to Manchester and Leeds completed by 2032-33.

The survey of IoD members found only 27% felt HS2 represented good value for money and 70% thought it would have no impact on the productivity of their business. The IoD said in a statement that the government assumption that time spent on a train was unproductive for business was "wildly inaccurate" as only 6% of directors said they never worked on a train. By contrast, 48% of members claimed they spent at least half the journey working, 26% worked for between a quarter and half the time, and 21% up to a quarter of the journey.

Walker said: "Some of the specific claims that the government has used to support its economic case for the project have been challenged by our members, who by and large do not feel that their business will benefit."

He concluded that the IoD could not support the government's economic case for HS2 "when so many of our members are doubtful of the benefits" and warned that for all the advantages of infrastructure investment, "the business case for HS2 simply is not there".

A Department for Transport spokeswoman said: "We need to build HS2 to free up valuable space for passengers and freight because without it, our existing rail network will be full by the mid-2020s at a cost to passengers and businesses up and down country.

"The scheme is forecast to generate more than ^50bn of benefits for the economy but we know we must maximise every economic benefit HS2 has to offer."
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« Reply #410 on: August 27, 2013, 18:03:52 »

The IOD claims 35,000 members.  This survey got a mere 1,323 responses, less than 4% of the IOD's membership - I don't know whether they had massive abstentions, or whether it was a random sample they surveyed, but either way it seems statistically flawed as a basis for the assertion that the outcome represents the views of the IOD's membership.

The cover this small survey has received in the media is totally overblown, but is of course a credit to the IOD's publicity machine!
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« Reply #411 on: August 27, 2013, 20:36:11 »

Ehrem; it's still August. Roll on the end of the Silly Season.
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« Reply #412 on: August 27, 2013, 21:49:49 »

That's a good point, Red Squirrel. Not only is there not much coming out of parliament, but the MPs (Member of Parliament) who aren't on fact-finding missions in the Caribbean are at home, doing their own thinking without aides or whips (well, parliamentary whips, at least - what goes on Summer recess stays on Summer recess).

Good point too, Gordon the Blue Engine. Gallup polls and the like are often conducted with a sample of 2,000 or so to represent the whole 60 million of us. But they are a chosen cross-section, and are asked an open question. The members of the IOD are presumably all directors, and may not have had such detached neutrality in the survey.

The IOD report tends to suggest that they have made a couple of fundamental mistakes. The first lies in repeating the IEA's figure of ^80 billion, when the directors of HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) Ltd assure us that they can work within the ^42 billion budget, plus rolling stock. The second mistake is to assume that the prime purpose is speed, when those of us who have been paying attention know that it is capacity. If I was a director of a manufacturing or engineering company, or even something peripheral transport or catering, I would be looking to see if there was anything in the project that I could tender for rather than poo-pooing the whole shebang.

The Bristol Post, on seeing this bandwagon rolling past, jumped right onto it. With typical Post-like accuracy, they tell us that:

Quote
The rail line from Paddington to Bristol is due to be electrified - cutting 20 minutes of the journey - at a cost of around ^800,000 per mile or ^5 billion in total by 2016.

This means the Post either a) does not know where London is; b) can't divide; or c) didn't check its facts by reading then Transport Secretary Philip Hammond's statement of 1 March 2011, which put the cost at ^704 million. I suspect a combination of all three.

I will continue to fight HS2's corner until Lord Adonis and Patrick McLoughlin change their minds. We have waited 26 years since the first announcement of GWR (Great Western Railway) electrification, and the cost will be much higher than it would have been in 1977. As I said earlier, if we need capacity now, we will need it even more in 20 years time, and will suffer economically for the lack of it. Costs must be controlled at every stage, but the signs are that that is happening. The final specification should be chiselled in granite, because changes in design during construction are the source of higher bills. HS2 Ltd, like its project, must be capable of surviving a general election on its merits, not political expediency
« Last Edit: September 02, 2013, 18:25:53 by Four Track, Now! » Logged

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« Reply #413 on: August 27, 2013, 22:08:32 »

The IOD claims 35,000 members.  This survey got a mere 1,323 responses, less than 4% of the IOD's membership - I don't know whether they had massive abstentions, or whether it was a random sample they surveyed, but either way it seems statistically flawed as a basis for the assertion that the outcome represents the views of the IOD's membership.

The cover this small survey has received in the media is totally overblown, but is of course a credit to the IOD's publicity machine!

A poll with 1,323 respondents is actually quite good. The ICM's, YouGov's and Ipsos-MORI's of this world tend to canvas around 1,000 people when seeking opinion on political matters. And that is 1,000 out of an adult population of over 50 million. 1,323 out of 35,000 is, I'd contend, much more statistically robust.
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« Reply #414 on: August 27, 2013, 22:13:43 »

but the MPs (Member of Parliament) who aren't on fact-finding missions in the Caribbean are at home, doing their own thinking

MPs? Doing their own thinking? Whatever next?

They'll be suggesting ideas that are good for the country as a whole...  Roll Eyes Tongue Grin
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« Reply #415 on: August 27, 2013, 22:27:01 »

The IOD report tends to suggest that they have made a couple of fundamental mistakes. The first lies in repeating the IEA's figure of ^80 billion, when the directors of HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) Ltd assure us that they can work within the ^42 billion budget, plus rolling stock. The second mistake is to assume that the prime purpose is speed, when those of us who have been paying attention know that it is capacity. If I was a director of a manufacturing or engineering company, or even something peripheral transport or catering, I would be looking to see if there was anything in the project that I could tender for rather than poo-pooing the whole shebang.

That is what lobbyists do these days, aided by journalists who no longer have the time (or perhaps the inclination) to check the facts.  They get a so called expert to publish some fabrication and get it published.  They then get others to quote it as if it were truth later on.  They even use it in surveys to find out what people think if the are fed the fabrication as if it were a fact. So eventually enough people believe it to be true.

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« Reply #416 on: August 27, 2013, 22:41:15 »

A poll with 1,323 respondents is actually quite good. The ICM's, YouGov's and Ipsos-MORI's of this world tend to canvas around 1,000 people when seeking opinion on political matters. And that is 1,000 out of an adult population of over 50 million. 1,323 out of 35,000 is, I'd contend, much more statistically robust.

There is a huge difference between a survey in which 1,000 people from a membership of 33,000 are randomly selected (say every member who's membership number ends in 01, 34 and 67) and a survey in which all 33,000 members are invite to take part and 1,000 actually do so.  There is useful information to be gained from the latter but it's can't (or rather shouldn't) be extrapolated to suggest that "xx% of our members think that ..."

Which methodology did the IOD use?  Which do those other organisations use?
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« Reply #417 on: August 27, 2013, 22:43:38 »


A poll with 1,323 respondents is actually quite good. The ICM's, YouGov's and Ipsos-MORI's of this world tend to canvas around 1,000 people when seeking opinion on political matters. And that is 1,000 out of an adult population of over 50 million. 1,323 out of 35,000 is, I'd contend, much more statistically robust.

As a sample of a random or carefully selected cross section, yes it would be. As a poll of members of a society composed of members with identical job titles, and no-one else, it tends to suggest that 96% of the members didn't think it worth bothering to answer, didn't know, or weren't around to be asked.
To find out how the survey was done, including whether it was a poll of all members or just a sample, I had a look at their website, finding that:

Quote
The IoD» (Institute of Directors - about) surveyed 1,323 members online between 1st and 11th August.
 

I must admit to being little wiser about the import of the results after looking at the press release. This tells me that:

Quote
In August 2011 a survey of IoD members found 54 per cent rated HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) important to their business. This figure has now fallen to 41 per cent, illustrating how businesses see high-speed rail as a lower priority than it was two years ago.

So although only 27% of respondents felt that HS2 was good value for money, 42% see it as important to their business. This presumably means that a significant number of IoD members think that even though they don't support it, they are still willing to engage with HS2 to make money.

I also find that:

Quote
Overall, 80% think that investment in existing intercity rail services is important or very important, while 73% say the same of commuter rail networks and 68% of tube/metro/tram networks.  

 By contrast, 41% think that investing in new high-speed rail links is important or very important.

Patrick McLoughlin was right. Had this project not been tarred with the brush of a high-speed moniker, support for HS2 (or HC2 as it might be called, the C-word in this case being 'capacity') would have been 50% higher. Had the money been earmarked for another 10-year campaign of disruption whilst the WCML (West Coast Main Line), ECML (East Coast Main Line), and others were upgraded yet again, four out of five directors who expressed an opinion would have approved.

Or if it were possible to have your cake and eat it, the IoD would be at the front of every queue, plate thrust outwards. Or at least 72%* of them would be.

(*That figure was plucked out of thin air. 67% of statistics are made up on the spot)
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« Reply #418 on: August 28, 2013, 00:08:54 »

I may have given the impression that I'm off the fence as far as HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) is concerned - I'm not. For visceral rather than logical reasons, I'll probably wait for Adonis, McLoughlin and FT, N! change to change their minds before I join the anti camp.

Having said that, I do hope HS2 limited are just keeping their PR (Public Relations) powder dry at the moment - because they don't seem to be on the front foot. It is very frustrating that when the press gives blanket coverage to the risible Dr BeechWellings, HS2's response seem to be a muffled whimper.
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« Reply #419 on: August 28, 2013, 06:58:45 »

Having said that, I do hope HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) limited are just keeping their PR (Public Relations) powder dry at the moment - because they don't seem to be on the front foot. It is very frustrating that when the press gives blanket coverage to the risible Dr BeechWellings, HS2's response seem to be a muffled whimper.

It possibly would not do HS2 Limited any favours joining in the "political squabble" they have a mater of fact task to do at the moment, their PR team I suspect is quite small and will be focused on local areas where they are carrying out surveys
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