HS2 - Government proposals, alternative routes and general discussion

[whole diary]

[JayMac]

From The BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

Labour ready to cancel HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) 'if costs rise'

Labour is questioning whether the HS2 rail project is "the best way to spend ^50bn for the future of our country".

Shadow chancellor Ed Balls told the party conference they still backed the idea of a new north-south rail link, but there could be no blank cheque.

And shadow treasury minister Rachel Reeves said the party would cancel it "if we don't think it's good value for money and costs continue to rise".

Supporters say HS2 will provide much needed extra rail capacity.

BBC transport correspondent Richard Westcott said Labour would not commit to cancelling HS2 before the election, but would review it if they won.

He said Labour would look at whether it was the best way to spend ^50bn, or whether they should look at other options, like different routes or big improvements to existing lines.

The project's first phase would see 225mph trains running on a new line to be built between London and the West Midlands by 2026. A second phase would see the line extended further north, with branches to Leeds and Manchester by 2033.

The estimated cost of the plan has risen in the past few months from ^34.2bn to ^42.6bn - plus ^7.5bn for rolling stock - and some senior Labour figures such as Lord Mandelson and Alistair Darling now oppose the project.

HS2 has had the backing of all three main party leaders since its conception - despite strong opposition among some backbench MPs^▸ (Member of Parliament).

Supporters of HS2 argue that apart from shorter journey times, the main argument in favour of the project is the need to greatly increase passenger capacity.

'No blank cheque'

In his conference speech Mr Balls said: "We continue to back the idea of a new north-south rail link."

He went on: "But under this government the HS2 project has been totally mismanaged and the costs have shot up to ^50bn.

"David Cameron and George Osborne have made clear they will go full steam ahead with this project - no matter how much the costs spiral up and up. They seem willing to put their own pride and vanity above best value for money for the taxpayer."

Mr Balls added: "Labour will not take this irresponsible approach. So let me be clear, in tough times - when there is less money around and a big deficit to get down - there will be no blank cheque from me as a Labour chancellor for this project or for any project. Because the question is - not just whether a new high-speed line is a good idea or a bad idea, but whether it is the best way to spend ^50bn for the future of our country."

Construction on the London-West Midlands phase is expected to begin around 2017, once Parliament has approved the necessary powers - probably in 2015.

The onward legs to Manchester and Leeds could start being built in the middle of the next decade, with the line open by 2032-33.

And the analysis from BBC Transport Correspondent, Richard Westmacott:

It may not sound dramatic but, believe me, this is a big shift in Labour's stance on this highly controversial project which does still, just about, have cross-party support.

Up until now the party has assured me, and everyone else, that it is committed to building the line, as long as the price doesn't go up any more.

Now Labour's telling me that it will review the project after the general election in 2015, if it gains power. In other words, ministers may not build the line, even if the price stays the same.

Instead, officials will look again at whether we really do need to spend so much money on a brand-new, high spec train line, or whether they could spend less on alternatives.

They wouldn't go into details but that could potentially mean a slower line on a different route, or beefing up the lines already there.

In the past Labour has always said that HS2 was the only way to deal with a looming capacity crunch on our railways, and that no alternatives can generate the step change in capacity needed for the future.

Clearly, that's now changed.

[Alan Pettitt]

Cancel the whole thing,  we've already put a couple of billions in to the West Coast Main Line,  Why do so many people want to commute between London and Birmingham?  Maybe put the money in to a train that can get you frome Frome to Yeovil in time for work?

[ellendune]

Cancel the whole thing,  we've already put a couple of billions in to the West Coast Main Line,  Why do so many people want to commute between London and Birmingham?  Maybe put the money in to a train that can get you frome Frome to Yeovil in time for work?

Umm - If you had read the rest of this thread you would know it was nothing about commuting between Birmingham and London.  I suggest you look at the relative populations of Frome and Yeovil compared to the combined populations of London, Birmingham, Manchester, Nottingham and Leeds. 

[TonyK]

If anyone hadn't noticed that this is the party conference season, they will now. This is the one time of the year when the parties can shout spite ( or spout sh... - thank you, Rev Spooner) without the other parties getting a right of reply at the same forum. The Conservatives can say what they like, without fear of upsetting the Lib Dems, and Labour can snipe from the margins, laying the groundwork for blaming everything they find when they get back into power on the other lot. And Ed (or is it David) Miliband can try to explain what "One nation" means to the four nations in the United Kingdom.

Poor old HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) has been plonked on the political coconut shy, and people are throwing more at it than just little wooden balls. The broad consensus that existed between the leaders of the major parties at least has become a competition to see who can heap the most opprobrium on what was, last month, an essential piece of infrastructure, and vital to the economic well-being of the whole country, as well as to the regeneration of the frozen wastes of "The North" (from whence I fled). None of this is because we don't need HS2 like we did last month (we do, and will do so even more in 5 years time), nor because we can't afford it (we can - I did the math a few posts back), nor because it will be an underused white heffalump of a scheme (need I mention Bristol Metrobust?). It is all for the sake of a few headlines, and maybe getting a newspaper or two onside in what will be at most the penultimate conference round before the knives are sharpened for the next General election.

The pretty maiden, so ardently courted by many suitors, now finds that her champions have turned their backs on her. Pontius Pilate did not wash his hands so quickly.

The logic (if there is any) is warped. Many, many millions have already been spent. They will constitute cash down the khazi if it is scrapped, or even put on hold. If we start again in 5 years time, it will cost double, and whatever expertise and equipment we have put on standby will have gone elsewhere. There are many farm, land, and house owners along the route whose properties will be affected if the line is built, and even more so if it isn't. Those people's lives will be more affected by delay than by action - look at the two properties for sale in Sipson, putative site of Heathrow's third runway for many a year, and you will see what I mean. Being removed from Hell and placed merely into Limbo does no-one any good. As the Bard of Avon put it, "If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well It were done quickly" I wish I had his turn of phrase.

These shenanigans belittle the astute corporate entity that is HS2 Ltd. By association, they belittle the very nature of public/private partnerships, because they reveal that Government wants the rewards, but will play with the risks when it suits. DaFT^» (Department for Transport - critical sounding abbreviation I discourage - about), under the aegis of Lord Adonis, has created this paradigm of how to do major infrastructure, and the model was endorsed by the first (ineffectual IMHO^▸ (in my humble opinion)) minister Justine Greening, and the second (very effectual IMHO) Patrick McLoughlin. This from a natural Labour voter. The best thing to do is to to finalise the guesstimate of costs, then tell HS2's boss Alison Munro to get on with it. If she does it on time and on budget, she gets a mighty bonus. If she doesn't, then she gets strung out to dry.

[Red Squirrel]

Politrics is a funny old game; it is (I think) fair to assume that at the next election the Lib Dems will be going back to their constituencies to prepare for oblivion, which leaves a lot of spare protest votes flying around. The Tories obviously fear that a fair number will go to UKIP, who of course are in outright opposition to HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)). Will the Tories find it worthwhile to trade the scorn that'll be heaped on them if they abandon the HS2 project, to try and regain the votes they look like losing to UKIP in the Home Counties? And then there's the bit I've never understood - why do Labour hate railways? More track milage was closed under Labour than the Tories, and under Bliar and Brown (IIRC^▸ (if I recall/remember/read correctly)) 400m of track was re-opened in England - and yes that's metres, not miles. Somehow I don't hold out much hope that Steve Miliband will be much better.

Wonder what the Monster Raving Loony Party's Transport Policy looks like? (cue: FT, N!)

Edit: changed 'can' to 'abandon', for clarity.

[TonyK]

Wonder what the Monster Raving Loony Party's Transport Policy looks like? (cue: FT, N!)

Oh, I wish! Bring back the screaming Lord! Give me Tarquin Fin-tim-lin-bin-whin-bim-lim-bus-stop-F'tang-F'tang-Ol^-Biscuitbarrel (to my shame, I didn't have to look that one up).

[Red Squirrel]

Wonder what the Monster Raving Loony Party's Transport Policy looks like? (cue: FT, N!)

Oh, I wish! Bring back the screaming Lord! Give me Tarquin Fin-tim-lin-bin-whin-bim-lim-bus-stop-F'tang-F'tang-Ol^-Biscuitbarrel (to my shame, I didn't have to look that one up).

Ah, I thought you might have something to say about how 'MetroBus' fits in with the MRLP's Transport Policy...

[TonyK]

Sorry RS, I had little time to think before work. Someone has to ruin run this country. I have to agree, though, Metrobust ticks every box in the loony department. I can see, in my mind's rose-tinted eye, David Sutch when he pipped the SDP for 5th place in Bootle, 1990, shouting "Landslide!" He posed many questions, like "Why is there only one Monopolies Commission?". He made more sense than the major parties have over the past few days.

[bobm]

Transport Minister Simon Burns, who was been championing HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) for the government, has stood down from the government to run as a Deputy Speaker.

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page)

Transport Minister Simon Burns has resigned from the government to run for the position of deputy Commons Speaker.The MP^▸ (Member of Parliament) for Chelmsford has been responsible for the controversial HS2 rail link during the past year, having previously been a health minister.



One of the three deputy Speaker positions is vacant after previous incumbent Nigel Evans stood down to fight sexual assault charges.

Mr Burns has clashed with Speaker John Bercow several times in the past.

On one occasion, Mr Burns described the man under whom he now seeks to serve as a "stupid sanctimonious dwarf".

BBC political correspondent Ross Hawkins said the Conservative MP had apologised afterwards - but only to groups of people who felt insulted, not necessarily to the Speaker himself.

'Forever grateful'
 
Were he to be elected, relations between the pair would not be altogether comfortable, our correspondent added.

There are plenty of Conservatives who do not support Mr Bercow and might vote for Mr Burns just to irritate him, he continued.

MPs are elected to the role of deputy Speaker, under reforms proposed by Mr Bercow shortly after he took on his role in 2009.

To stand for election, MPs need to be sponsored by at least six other MPs.

One of the other candidates for the role is Nadine Dorries, who in 2009 described the Speaker as "oily" and suggested he was "mistrusted by up to half of the House".

The successful applicant will join existing deputies, former Labour MPs Dawn Primarolo and Lindsay Hoyle, in helping to chair Commons business.

'Loyal and dedicated'
 
Mr Burns' decision comes ahead of an expected reshuffle of middle-ranking Conservative ministerial ranks in coming weeks.

In his resignation letter to Prime Minister David Cameron, he wrote: "It has been a privilege to serve in your administration for the past three and a quarter years and I will be forever grateful to you for giving me that opportunity in both the Departments of Health and Transport.

"You can rest assured that I will continue to support your leadership of both the Conservative Party and the government."

The PM's response described the MP as a "loyal, dedicated and committed colleague".

Mr Cameron said: "I know that this will not have been an easy decision for you to make, and one you will have given a huge amount of thought to.

"After serving the government so ably for over three years, you will certainly be missed, but I completely understand and respect your decision."

[JayMac]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) 'losers' revealed after report omitted figures

KPMG's report listed the regions that would benefit, but left out the rest

The areas that could lose out if a new north-to-south rail link is built have been revealed for the first time.

HS2 would make more than 50 places across the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) worse off - such as Aberdeen, Bristol and Cardiff - research by KPMG suggested.

The government said HS2's ^17bn cost is part of a ^73bn package of transport improvements in the next parliament.

It claimed the measures would benefit areas which HS2 will not serve, long before the high-speed line opens.

KPMG's findings were only released in a freedom of information request passed to BBC Two's Newsnight programme.

HS2 Ltd's chief executive has called them "unsurprising".

The KPMG report, which was hailed by the government when it was published in September, said the line could boost the UK economy by ^15bn a year.

It listed the regions it said would benefit, with Greater London (^2.8bn) and West Midlands (^1.5bn) the biggest winners.

But the 92-page document omitted data for those parts of the UK not on the proposed line which stand to be net losers from the project.

Economic output would be worst affected, according to the research, in:

Aberdeenshire, Aberdeen City and Moray (-^220m)
Norfolk East (-^164m)
Dundee and Angus (-^96m)
Cardiff (-^68m)
Norfolk West (-^56m)

James Bream, policy director of Aberdeen's Chamber of Commerce, said it was "really disappointing" that such a huge number was left out of the original report.

He added the negative impact for the whole north-east of Scotland could be "significant to say the least."

Dundee and Angus could lose as much as 2% of its annual GDP, KPMG found.

Kettering, Suffolk West and Cambridgeshire East are all listed as zones that could see a 1% drop in GDP.

The accountants used data from HS2 Ltd's assessment of the direct transport impacts of the scheme, which would connect London to Birmingham and to Manchester and Leeds.

But the Department for Transport said HS2 was vital to "rebalance the economy".

A spokesman said: "These figures show it boosts the north overall more than the south.

"Of course the line does not serve every city and region and these figures reflect that."

The DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) say ultimately the line would reduce journey times to Edinburgh and Glasgow by an hour.

[ellendune]

I take that means ^220 m less than it otherwise would have been, not ^220 m less than now.  Not sure what the GDB of Bristol is but I guess this is not a large percentage and although Bristol has a huge disparity between rich and poor it is, on average, a wealthy part of the country.  Some targeted investment in infrastructure such as the Metro project (and other projects) could probably recover that. 

[Chris from Nailsea]

Transport Minister Simon Burns, who was been championing HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) for the government, has stood down from the government to run as a Deputy Speaker.

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page)

Transport Minister Simon Burns has resigned from the government to run for the position of deputy Commons Speaker.

The MP^▸ (Member of Parliament) for Chelmsford has been responsible for the controversial HS2 rail link during the past year, having previously been a health minister.

Simon Burns was unsuccessful in his bid - from the BBC:

Conservative MP Eleanor Laing elected deputy Speaker

Eleanor Laing has been elected as one of the three deputy Speakers of the House of Commons.

The Conservative MP for Epping Forest beat six other challengers for the right to fill in for Speaker John Bercow in his absence.

In the final round of voting, she saw off Conservative Brian Binley by 273 votes to 240.

There has been a vacancy on Mr Bercow's team since Nigel Evans stood down to fight sex offence charges.

The other candidates, all Conservative MPs, were David Amess, Henry Bellingham, Simon Burns, Nadine Dorries, and Gary Streeter.

[JayMac]

He gambled. He lost. Back to the back benches and having to survive on a mere ^66,396 per year, plus expenses. 

He was prepared to take a five grand cut in salary (premium would've been ^36,360) to climb the political greasy pole to the position of First Deputy Chairman of Ways & Means (Deputy Speaker).

Turns out the pole was just a bit to greasy. Bet he now wishes he didn't give up his Minister of State position with its premium of ^41,370.

Of course, no politician is in it for the money. 

Congratulations to Eleanor Laing though. And we can all be grateful that Nadine Dorries was resoundingly defeated in the first ballot.

[TonyK]

The baton was picked up by Baroness Kramer, our new Minister of State for transport, who was most recently on the commission for banking standards. She has some form in transport, having been shadow minister in 2007, as well as having been on the board of Transport for London.

For her first major speech on HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)), she chose the less than hostile setting of the Railway Engineers' Forum. Selling HS2 to them would have been as difficult as selling cheap beer to darts players (or me, for that matter).

I shan't quote the whole speech, as the noble lady has much to say. But a couple of snippets show that she is wildly in favour of the scheme, but with her enthusiasm founded on the rock of logic:

I am sure commuters on the West Coast Mainline will remember the problems caused during the ^9 billion upgrade programme^.
Yet the extra capacity released by this huge project has already been filled, and with passenger numbers growing, thousands of commuters are standing during the morning peak.
And despite the huge investment, it wasn^t enough to finish the job.
The overhead wiring on the West Coast line is getting on for 50 years old.
If upgrading existing lines were a feasible and effective answer to rising demand^.
And a genuine alternative to HS2^.
Believe me ^ we would do it.

On the fiscal aspect, this lady who used to run an infrastructure financing consultancy across Europe said:

Of course we need to build HS2 within or under budget.
We will.
The budget for HS2 is ^42.6 billion. Not the scare stories I^ve heard in recent months claiming a cost of ^70 billion.
It^s ^42.6 billion.
Spent carefully over several decades.
For a full network to Leeds and Manchester.
And that is an upper limit with a contingency - ^14.4 billion in reserve which we are determined to bear down on.
The head of Network Rail said in July he expects the final cost of construction to be significantly less than ^42.6 billion.

She talks a good talk. Those engineers must have been drooling. HS2 has a new champion. She may be a Lib Dem, but she is very clearly on message.

[Rhydgaled]

Has anyone already posted this?