HS2 - Government proposals, alternative routes and general discussion

[whole diary]

[Rhydgaled]

In the news this morning: HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) is an over-priced, gold-plated project and will fail in many of its objectives, a group of transport experts has warned. They seem to be saying the same thing as me, but in different words and perhaps for slightly different reasons, that HS2 is 'the wrong railway for the right reasons'. The reasons are:

• to increase capacity
• to improve connectivity
• to regenerate the North and
• to reduce climate impacts

The BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) report states that "the critics say it will only achieve one of these - capacity. Many key rail journeys, they say, would be worse, including to Nottingham, Stockport and Wakefield."

They suggest that 190mph is normal for HS^▸ (High Speed (short for HSS^▸ (High Speed Services) High Speed Services)) lines in mainland Europe, and seem to be proposing that HS2 should be the same. I do think that the 250mph proposed is overkill, esspecially if going at 190-200mph instead would allow more important wildlife habitats like ancient woodland to be avoided. However, in order to meet the objective of reducing greenhouse gas emmisions, my view is that any routes which are only competing with road travel (and not aeroplanes as well), such as London-Birmingham shuttle services, should on no account be faster than 140mph.

Of course, you cannot have 140mph trains cluttering up a high-capacity HS route, so in my opinion the London-Birmingham shuttles need to be dropped from HS2's proposals, but sadly the BBC report makes no mention of this.

As for the other two objectives, regenerating the north and improving connectivity, it seems to me that another of HS2's weak points is that it does little, if anything, to improve connectivity between Birmingham and the 'northern powerhouse'. If you want to rebalance the economy away from London, surely improving connectivity from Manchester, Liverpool and Leeds to Bristol via Birmingham, and the TransPennine upgrade, are more important than improving links to London.

Rather than HS2's current deformed Y-shape (with the stunted third branch to Birmingham Curzon Street), it could instead be an X-shape, with Curzon Street at the centre, Leeds at the north-east, London south-east, Bristol south-west and Manchester/Liverpool north-west. Given that CrossCountry's route from Leeds to Bristol is not electrified yet, I would suggest that the north-east to south-west stroke of the X could be an upgrade of existing lines, at least initially. Thus HS2 itself would just be a single London to Manchester route, with no branches, but with classic trains on the Leeds-Bristol axis joining for the run through Birmingham, both to share a station and allow for a HS3/4 from Leeds to Bristol if required in the distant future. Perhaps dropping the Leeds spur of HS2 and electrifying the classic line instead would save enough money to pay for the necessary tunnels at the north/west end of the Birmingham Curzon street station.

[IndustryInsider]

As for the other two objectives, regenerating the north and improving connectivity, it seems to me that another of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s))'s weak points is that it does little, if anything, to improve connectivity between Birmingham and the 'northern powerhouse'.

Aren't Birmingham to Leeds, York and Newcastle being reduced by over an hour by HS2 on current journey times?  Manchester being more than halved from 1h 28m to 41m?  Preston from 1h 31m to 53m?  I'd hardly call that 'little, if anything'.

[Rhydgaled]

As for the other two objectives, regenerating the north and improving connectivity, it seems to me that another of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s))'s weak points is that it does little, if anything, to improve connectivity between Birmingham and the 'northern powerhouse'.

Aren't Birmingham to Leeds, York and Newcastle being reduced by over an hour by HS2 on current journey times?  Manchester being more than halved from 1h 28m to 41m?  Preston from 1h 31m to 53m?  I'd hardly call that 'little, if anything'.

Birmingham to Leeds, York and Newcastle maybe, but isn't that another relatively short-distance shuttle with no air competition? As for Manchester and Preston, again no flights and I wasn't aware there would be any HS2 trains to those destinations from Birmingham. Birmingham airport yes, but not Birmingham itself owing to Curzon Street currently being planned as a terminus.

[ChrisB]

Birmingham to Northern Powerhouse....if not those stations you've just dismissed, where?

[Noggin]

Anyone got a link to the actual report so we can all read without the intermediary of journalists looking for a controversial angle?

Much of the higher cost per KM is explained by our geography, land prices, contingency budgets and also that we have a planning system that doesn't just declare projects of public utility and say "sod you" to anyone inconvenienced.

Also, because we built our railways earlier, we also have a smaller loading gauge and shorter platforms, which preclude using standard continental vehicles and double-decker stock. Presuming that we want to "future-proof" what we are building now and build to HS^▸ (High Speed (short for HSS^▸ (High Speed Services) High Speed Services)) norms, that gives us a headache when it comes to city centres, as we can't use the existing "last mile" into stations like Manchester Piccadilly and Birmingham New Street (which are equally at capacity). So we are going to have to build new HS stations in city centres, which are going to be horribly expensive, and new parkway stations which seem to please no-one.

I think it's a quite reasonable assertion that the interface with the classic network is the Achilles' heel of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)).

1) In designing Euston/Birmingham/Manchester/Leeds as end-on terminii, costs and scope were constrained, but at the risk that they would be short-lived and expensive white-elephants, in the same way that Waterloo International was. Manchester in particular should have been designed from the outset as a N-S/E-W interchange to permit a HS transpennine link, Leeds could have been similarly designed, Birmingham could have been built to support a line south to Bristol.* Of course that would have been far, far more expensive. 
2) Where there are out of town interchanges, it would have been better if they could have integrated with the classic rail network at places like Meadowhall, Birmingham Airport, Manchester Airport (and there should have be an East Midlands airport station seeing as the line goes below the runway).
3) I can see the reasons for not running HS2 through Sheffield and Nottingham (amongst other places), but there should have be provision for loops that could be used by classic-compatible trains both north and south-bound.
4) The effect on the likes of Stockport, Wilmslow, Wakefield, Stoke etc which currently have a good intercity service should have been considered

The question is, has anyone in power realised that this is a serious issue and will it be dealt with before too much gets built on white elephants?

* I'd even go far as to suggest that there should be an end-on connection to HS1^▸ (High Speed line 1 - St Pancras to Channel Tunnel), with HS2 services terminating in Ebbsfleet, but that's a bit controversial!

[ellendune]

Much of the cost is explained by the large amount of tunnelling needed to (fail to) placate the people in London and the South East.

[John R]

Rather than HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s))'s current deformed Y-shape (with the stunted third branch to Birmingham Curzon Street), it could instead be an X-shape, with Curzon Street at the centre, Leeds at the north-east, London south-east, Bristol south-west and Manchester/Liverpool north-west. Given that CrossCountry's route from Leeds to Bristol is not electrified yet, I would suggest that the north-east to south-west stroke of the X could be an upgrade of existing lines, at least initially. Thus HS2 itself would just be a single London to Manchester route, with no branches, but with classic trains on the Leeds-Bristol axis joining for the run through Birmingham, both to share a station and allow for a HS3/4 from Leeds to Bristol if required in the distant future.

What about the spur to Pembroke Dock? 

[stuving]

Has anyone found the study at the source of this (e.g. of yesterday's BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) item)? Its authors were led by Professor Tony May from Leeds University, listed (as emeritus - he retired some time ago) in the staff of their Institute for Transport Studies. The BBC also quote Professor James Croll of UCL, listed there as Emeritus Professor of Civil Engineering, Dept of Civil, Environ &Geomatic Eng.

But where, and under whose name, is the study "published"? The comparisons being made in these press reports are clearly nonsense (apples and newts, that kind of thing). Do they also have any less headlineworthy but more sensible ones, I wonder?

[Chris from Nailsea]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) rail project backed by new transport secretary

The new transport secretary, Chris Grayling, has said he has no plans to scrap the high-speed HS2 rail project.

The initial plan is for a new line from London to Birmingham, with later extensions to Manchester and Leeds.

The Stop HS2 campaign group had called on Mr Grayling to urgently review the project on cost grounds, and the effect on towns and cities near the route.

But Mr Grayling told BBC Radio 4's The World This Weekend: "I have no plans to back away from the HS2 project."

After Mr Grayling's remarks, Stop HS2 campaign manager Joe Rukin told the BBC News Website the transport secretary's comments were "hardly a ringing endorsement" of the project.

Mr Grayling told the BBC: "The thing that's important for people to understand is that HS2 is not simply a speed project, it's a capacity project. We have lines at the moment which have seen huge increases in the number of passengers, the amount of freight in recent years."

He said the West Coast mainline was becoming "really congested", and was limiting the capacity of services to places like Northampton and Milton Keynes.

Mr Grayling added: "Of course it makes sense if we're going to build a new railway line for it to be a fast railway line, to increase travel times or reduce travel times from north to south, that's logical. But actually we need a better transport system for the 21st Century and HS2 is part of increasing the capacity of our transport system."

MPs^▸ (Member of Parliament) are due to vote on phase one of HS2 later this year. If they approve the bill, that should signal the go-ahead to start building the section of line from London to Birmingham.

The company building the line, HS2 Ltd, is also set to hand out £11bn worth of contracts in the next couple of months.

Last week pressure group Stop HS2 called on the government of new Prime Minister Theresa May to undertake a fresh review of the rail project, saying a failure to do so would be "irresponsible".

Its campaign manager Mr Rukin told the BBC on Sunday that a recent National Audit Office report had indicated that HS2 was £9bn over budget.

He also said the project had failed a recent Department for Transport review, on the issues of both costs and the scheduling of work.

He said that for these reasons HS2 should not be allowed to commence with its tendering processes.

[paul7575]

After Mr Grayling's remarks, Stop HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) campaign manager Joe Rukin told the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) News Website the transport secretary's comments were "hardly a ringing endorsement" of the project.

Does Joe Rukin seriously think anyone is listening to him anymore? 

I suggest DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) give him about as much credibility as SHRUG...

Paul

[eightf48544]

I think it's a quite reasonable assertion that the interface with the classic network is the Achilles' heel of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)).

1) In designing Euston/Birmingham/Manchester/Leeds as end-on terminii, costs and scope were constrained, but at the risk that they would be short-lived and expensive white-elephants, in the same way that Waterloo International was. Manchester in particular should have been designed from the outset as a N-S/E-W interchange to permit a HS^▸ (High Speed (short for HSS^▸ (High Speed Services) High Speed Services)) transpennine link, Leeds could have been similarly designed, Birmingham could have been built to support a line south to Bristol.* Of course that would have been far, far more expensive. 

* I would have said North West to Wolverhampton Shrewsbury Chester and North Wales.

Otherwise I entirely agree with you I always thought it stupid to build termini rather then end on links with classic network. Especially in Birmingham where Curzon street is some way from New Street. Who is going to come into New Street and interchange with HS2 when there will still be a Pendelino to Euston on another platform possibly as a through train from Wolverhampton..

[JayMac]

The franchise to run services on HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) will be let together with Inter City West Coast (ICWC^▸ (InterCity West Coast)) services.

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

:
A new rail franchise combining the current InterCity West Coast main line with HS2 high-speed services has been announced by the government.

The new franchise will be called the West Coast Partnership and is scheduled to start on 1 April, 2019.
The operator will be responsible for services on both the West Coast Main Line from 2019 and running the initial HS2 services in 2026.

Construction of the HS2 line is scheduled to begin next year.

It is planned that HS2 will eventually link London, Birmingham, the East Midlands, Leeds, Sheffield and Manchester.

The contract will run for the first three to five years of HS2's operation.

'Backbone of Britain'

The West Coast franchise is currently run by Virgin Trains as a joint venture between Stagecoach and Virgin.

The government will invite tenders for the new franchise in October or November next year, setting out what it wants from the winning bidder.

Transport Minister Andrew Jones said: "HS2 will be the backbone of Britain's railways, creating more seats for passengers on the West Coast and increasing capacity on the rest of the network.

"By combining the franchise we are ensuring we get the right people on board at an early stage to design and manage the running of both services in the transition stage. The new franchise will attract highly experienced companies, who have the right experience, which ultimately means a better deal for passengers - both now and in the future."

Passenger protection

It is hoped that HS2 will reduce overcrowding on the existing network and generate economic growth across the country.

Critics say it is too expensive and will damage the environment, but last month the Transport Secretary Chris Grayling confirmed the government intended to press ahead with the project.

Sir David Higgins, chairman of HS2 Ltd, the company responsible for building the £55.7bn railway, said: "I have always been clear HS2 will not be a standalone railway but fully integrated with the wider network. It will provide a new backbone for our railways, modernising services to better serve towns and cities up and down the country."

Anthony Smith, chief executive of the independent watchdog Transport Focus, said passengers would be pleased to see a "co-ordinated approach to delivering services".

But he warned: "Less competition could too easily lead to premium pricing so passenger protection will have to be a priority.

"We will now be working with all bidders to share our detailed work on what current West Coast and future HS2 passengers want."

Virgin Trains will be awarded a new short-term contract of approximately 12 months to continue operating West Coast services following the end of the current franchise in 2018.

So no competition between HS2 and ICWC. That'll be good for passengers then.

[simonw]

Not sure anyone would be willing to take on a franchise for Birmingham-London on HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) in the early days, if ever.

So combining it with WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) franchise is probably sensible.

[ChrisB]

And ICWC^▸ (InterCity West Coast) will have more stops than now, so won't compete on equal footing - as ICWC & LM^▸ (London Midland - recent franchise) do know.

[JayMac]

I suspect the Govt don't want real competition as that would affect the revenue forecasts for HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)). No doubt we will instead see a plethora of complex fare routeings and validities just as we did when HS1^▸ (High Speed line 1 - St Pancras to Channel Tunnel) domestic services were introduced.