Train Graphic
Great Western Passengers' Forum Great Western Coffee Shop - [home] and [about]
Read about the forum [here].
Register and contribute [here] - it's free.
article index - [here]
 today - MRUG meet and chat
21/10/2019 - Ticket booking test - BRI
23/10/2019 - GWR Customer Panel, Cardiff
26/10/2019 - Railfuture Branches and Groups
26/10/2019 - Plym Valley / Lost Driver
27/10/2019 - Question deadline - MTMD
Random Image
Train Running @GWR Twitter Acronyms/Abbreviations Station Comparator Rail news GWR co. site Site Style 1 2 3 4 Chat on off
Next departures • Bristol Temple MeadsBath SpaChippenhamSwindonDidcot ParkwayReadingLondon PaddingtonMelksham
Exeter St DavidsTauntonWestburyTrowbridgeBristol ParkwayCardiff CentralOxfordCheltenham SpaBirmingham New Street
October 19, 2019, 08:56:22 pm *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Forgotten your username or password? - get a reminder
Most liked recent subjects
[301] Climate Change Emergency - Implications for UK Transport Strat...
[98] Changes to train times and to fares - Bedwyn and Pewsey to Lon...
[56] HS2 - Government proposals, alternative routes and general dis...
[41] Could you give up flying? Meet the no-plane pioneers
[38] Realtime Trains
[23] Dilton Marsh - an update visit
News: A forum for passengers ... with input from rail professionals welcomed too
 
   Home   Help Search Calendar Login Register  
Pages: 1 ... 51 52 [53] 54 55 ... 57
  Print  
Author Topic: HS2 - Government proposals, alternative routes and general discussion  (Read 187276 times)
TonyK
Global Moderator
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 4550


The artist formerly known as Four Track, Now!


View Profile
« Reply #780 on: August 21, 2019, 10:28:39 pm »

Not just binning HS2 for votes I suspect. I wouldn't be surprised to see alternative rail spending projects announcec for marginal constituencies.

True. Announcements are cheap...

Remember that the man potentially doing the binning is the same man who as Mayor of London said he would lie down in front of the bulldozers at Heathrow's third runway when preparing to stand for election as a MP again. Not much sign of that ever happening now that he has got into number 10. So I too think it is blatant electioneering, and another case of someone trying to bribe us with our own money. One thing that will happen is the self-fulfilling prophecy of delays and increased costs, which is inevitable if we tell the contractors to down tools for a few months while we all have another think about it. Announcements may be cheap, inquiries and reviews never are.

Grant Shapps' logic - that even if he have spent 7 billion on something doesn't make it axe-proof - will send shivers down the spine of anyone with a civil engineering project on the go, and is hardly going to encourage contractors to be reasonable when tendering for work in future. It will, though, give hope to those opposing Brexit - just because it has cost what some say 66 billion so far doesn't mean we have to go through with it. It is also music to the ears of airlines plying domestic routes, safe from competition for another decade at least.

I anticipate cheese paring all over government, this being the first sign. HS2 may still end up as another MetroBust line
Logged

Now, please!
TaplowGreen
Transport Scholar
Hero Member
******
Posts: 4709


View Profile
« Reply #781 on: August 27, 2019, 06:16:14 am »

Interesting, if not particularly surprising.

BBC News - Ministers and HS2 bosses knew railway over budget years ago
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49450297
Logged
martyjon
Transport Scholar
Hero Member
******
Posts: 1805


View Profile
« Reply #782 on: August 31, 2019, 05:14:23 pm »

Saturday August 31st 2019

Listened to BBC Radio 4 repeat of yesterday evenings News Quiz.

One of the questions was, "what has nearly come to the end of the line ?"

Of course the right answer of HS2 was given and after that the comic panelists make humorous comments of which the final comment was, "When a Government Minister was asked about the anticipated cost overruns his reply was that we could always look for cost savings", the comic continued, "I thought that had already happened when they sacked Chris Grayling". HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA. 
Logged
broadgage
Transport Scholar
Hero Member
******
Posts: 2818



View Profile
« Reply #783 on: September 03, 2019, 01:40:49 pm »

Announced today that the opening of HS2 will be delayed by "up to five years" which my cynical mind interprets as actually meaning "delayed by an absolute minimum of five years" and probably by 10 or 20 years.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49563549
Logged

A proper intercity train has a minimum of 8 coaches, gangwayed throughout, with first at one end, and a full sized buffet car between first and standard.
It has space for cycles, surfboards,luggage etc.
A 5 car DMU is not a proper inter-city train. The 5+5 and 9 car DMUs are almost as bad.
TaplowGreen
Transport Scholar
Hero Member
******
Posts: 4709


View Profile
« Reply #784 on: September 03, 2019, 03:18:55 pm »

Announced today that the opening of HS2 will be delayed by "up to five years" which my cynical mind interprets as actually meaning "delayed by an absolute minimum of five years" and probably by 10 or 20 years.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49563549

Quite right too.
Logged
eightonedee
Transport Scholar
Hero Member
******
Posts: 462



View Profile
« Reply #785 on: September 04, 2019, 06:51:35 pm »

Quote
Remember that the man potentially doing the binning is the same man who as Mayor of London said he would lie down in front of the bulldozers at Heathrow's third runway when preparing to stand for election as a MP again.

Having just had our worthy MP "deselected" by this man's decree, I'd like to volunteer to drive the bulldozer.....
Logged
TonyK
Global Moderator
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 4550


The artist formerly known as Four Track, Now!


View Profile
« Reply #786 on: September 04, 2019, 09:00:57 pm »

Quote
Remember that the man potentially doing the binning is the same man who as Mayor of London said he would lie down in front of the bulldozers at Heathrow's third runway when preparing to stand for election as a MP again.

Having just had our worthy MP "deselected" by this man's decree, I'd like to volunteer to drive the bulldozer.....

There would be a queue, for sure! I should wait another month, and see who is Prime Minister then.
Logged

Now, please!
stuving
Transport Scholar
Hero Member
******
Posts: 4180


View Profile
« Reply #787 on: September 04, 2019, 11:12:52 pm »

You may have been wondering what this "report from the chairman of HS2, Allan Cook" to the SoS was like - maybe a classic single side of A4? Well, no, it's 58 pages of unremitting positive thinking, though large parts (including the last eight pages and a few others too) are blanked out which saves you the bother of reading them.

I claims that benefits have been significantly underestimated, which sounds a but unlikely, though I haven't looked into the details. It also shows a bit of the evolution of the estimates, offering some explanation of how it went from "within budget" to "oops" overnight. As suggested for Crossrail, as known costs (either incurred or estimated from increasingly complete data) go up the contingency shrinks - but it's still possible for the outturn to meet the budget. But there is also a realistic risk estimate - requiring a a larger contingency - somewhere, possibly in a locked cupboard in the boss's office. And finally what's left of the original contingency drops to and below zero, and the fan cleaners get a call.

And why is it costing so much, and so much more than expected at first? I can only find one bit short enough to quote; this is not "the answer" to that XXXL question.

Quote
The programme is facing substantial schedule and cost pressures for a number of reasons. In part, that is a reflection of the scale and complexity of the programme [________________]. Next, the work we have carried out has revealed that ground conditions are significantly more challenging than predicted. Finally, and in part, early estimates based on comparisons with other international high-speed railways, have for a variety of reasons proven to be overly optimistic.

While comparisons with other high-speed lines have highlighted techniques we can adopt, they have also revealed important differences differences that reflect the extra demands we are placing on the railway in this country to deliver the strategic purpose and transformation it is designed to achieve.

For instance, HS2 has more new routes into the heart of city centres, compared to other European countries, in order to maximise the connectivity with existing regional and local services and spark urban regeneration around stations. HS2 will also operate at higher frequency and tonnage in order to serve more destinations which, in turn, requires the use of slab track with its associated tighter geotechnical tolerances. The construction and operation of the railway will also reflect the more stringent environmental standards we apply to leave an environmental legacy that we can be proud of and mitigate the impact on communities. While all of these factors were known when setting the funding envelope in 2015, the full impact of these differences was not and could not have been fully understood at that time. 
Logged
martyjon
Transport Scholar
Hero Member
******
Posts: 1805


View Profile
« Reply #788 on: September 05, 2019, 04:22:17 am »

They sure have something to hide with all those redactions but then I suppose using ;-

OFFICIAL SENSITIVE
FINAL

as a footer to each page of the report says something such as "but we still need a blank cheque to complete this project as or as near as originally conceived whatever the cost to the exchequer and ultimately the taxpayer".

I would like explained to me how, on the existing network, "the removal of one HSS service will make room for 11 commuter trains or fast freights".

In my little tiny mind, one HSS service requires one platform at the terminus but I am not that "thick" to suggest that 10 extra platforms would be needed to accomodate all 11 of those commuter services as, in a morning peak say, you could have in that counted 11 commuter services, 2 Birmingham - Coventry terminators, continuing as 2 Coventry - Rugby terminators, continuing as 2 Rugby - Northampton terminators, continuing as 2 Northampton - Milton Keynes terminators, continuing as 2 Milton Keynes - Euston terminators plus a final through Birmingham - Euston service, thus needing at least an additional 2 platforms at Euston as the rerouted HSS service would still use up an allocation of 1 platform. Now in the morning peak currently you may have 2 HSS services which would cease in the existing timetable but would that give rise to accommodating an extra 22 commuter or fast freight services on the relegated line network. I think not.

Time for another coffee before a dawn start.
Logged
TonyK
Global Moderator
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 4550


The artist formerly known as Four Track, Now!


View Profile
« Reply #789 on: September 05, 2019, 09:24:44 am »

They sure have something to hide with all those redactions but then I suppose using ;-

OFFICIAL SENSITIVE
FINAL

as a footer to each page of the report says something such as "but we still need a blank cheque to complete this project as or as near as originally conceived whatever the cost to the exchequer and ultimately the taxpayer".

I would like explained to me how, on the existing network, "the removal of one HSS service will make room for 11 commuter trains or fast freights".


I think the reason might have something to do with the fact that if a train running at 125 mph and one running at 255 mph on parallel tracks began to stop at the same time with the same braking effort as they drew level, one would still be doing 130 mph when the other stopped completely. New fancy in-cab signalling will mean that trains running at the same high speed can get closer together without compromising safety, but unless there are lots of passing loops, you wouldn't be able to mix traffic very well. If a freight train at 60 mph were to leave for a junction 60 miles distant, the high speed train would have to give a 45 minute start. However, replace three existing pendolinos on the WCML with three HS2 trains, and you would probably have room enough freed up to restock Blackpool with booze for the August bank holiday, and still run a couple of steam tours.
Logged

Now, please!
broadgage
Transport Scholar
Hero Member
******
Posts: 2818



View Profile
« Reply #790 on: September 05, 2019, 12:03:24 pm »

"ground conditions more challenging than expected"  Has ANY major project ever been completed ahead of the forecast date, and for less than the budgeted cost due to finding ground conditions "more benign than expected" ?
In a developed nation, geology and ground conditions should be well understood by now.
Logged

A proper intercity train has a minimum of 8 coaches, gangwayed throughout, with first at one end, and a full sized buffet car between first and standard.
It has space for cycles, surfboards,luggage etc.
A 5 car DMU is not a proper inter-city train. The 5+5 and 9 car DMUs are almost as bad.
Noggin
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 354


View Profile
« Reply #791 on: September 05, 2019, 03:54:48 pm »

They sure have something to hide with all those redactions but then I suppose using ;-

OFFICIAL SENSITIVE
FINAL

as a footer to each page of the report says something such as "but we still need a blank cheque to complete this project as or as near as originally conceived whatever the cost to the exchequer and ultimately the taxpayer".

I would like explained to me how, on the existing network, "the removal of one HSS service will make room for 11 commuter trains or fast freights".


I think the reason might have something to do with the fact that if a train running at 125 mph and one running at 255 mph on parallel tracks began to stop at the same time with the same braking effort as they drew level, one would still be doing 130 mph when the other stopped completely. New fancy in-cab signalling will mean that trains running at the same high speed can get closer together without compromising safety, but unless there are lots of passing loops, you wouldn't be able to mix traffic very well. If a freight train at 60 mph were to leave for a junction 60 miles distant, the high speed train would have to give a 45 minute start. However, replace three existing pendolinos on the WCML with three HS2 trains, and you would probably have room enough freed up to restock Blackpool with booze for the August bank holiday, and still run a couple of steam tours.

Indeed, another way to think about it is that it's a bit like the tube where with moderate speeds and short signalling sections you can fit something like 30tph down a single line.
Logged
TonyK
Global Moderator
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 4550


The artist formerly known as Four Track, Now!


View Profile
« Reply #792 on: September 06, 2019, 06:10:58 pm »

"ground conditions more challenging than expected"  Has ANY major project ever been completed ahead of the forecast date, and for less than the budgeted cost due to finding ground conditions "more benign than expected" ?
In a developed nation, geology and ground conditions should be well understood by now.

Manchester Metrolink to the airport finished ahead of schedule and not above budget, but that may just have been because they were getting good at building light rail rather than the ground being more sympathetic.

They sure have something to hide with all those redactions but then I suppose using ;-

OFFICIAL SENSITIVE
FINAL

as a footer to each page of the report says something such as "but we still need a blank cheque to complete this project as or as near as originally conceived whatever the cost to the exchequer and ultimately the taxpayer".

What it actually says is "This is sensitive material which could contain all manner of commercial information, but it is not secret or top secret. Treat it with respect, but at the lowest level for government documents." Something like that. The government says it better in the guidance on security classifications. No need to eat it after reading.
Logged

Now, please!
TaplowGreen
Transport Scholar
Hero Member
******
Posts: 4709


View Profile
« Reply #793 on: September 22, 2019, 06:02:31 pm »

106.4 billion and counting.......

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/21/high-speed-2-will-cost-1064-billion-almost-double-amount-claimed/
Logged
ellendune
Transport Scholar
Hero Member
******
Posts: 3341


View Profile
« Reply #794 on: September 22, 2019, 09:05:03 pm »


For a newspaper to make such a claim these days seems only to require so anti campaigner who claims to be an 'expert' to make a claim.  I know that HS2 have been concealing some estimated overspend, but forgive me if I am naturally skeptical of such leaked claims via such a newspaper. 
Logged
Do you have something you would like to add to this thread, or would you like to raise a new question at the Coffee Shop? Please [register] (it is free) if you have not done so before, or login (at the top of this page) if you already have an account - we would love to read what you have to say!

You can find out more about how this forum works [here] - that will link you to a copy of the forum agreement that you can read before you join, and tell you very much more about how we operate. We are an independent forum, provided and run by customers of Great Western Railway, for customers of Great Western Railway and we welcome railway professionals as members too, in either a personal or official capacity. Views expressed in posts are not necessarily the views of the operators of the forum.

As well as posting messages onto existing threads, and starting new subjects, members can communicate with each other through personal messages if they wish. And once members have made a certain number of posts, they will automatically be admitted to the "frequent posters club", where subjects not-for-public-domain are discussed; anything from the occasional rant to meetups we may be having ...

 
Pages: 1 ... 51 52 [53] 54 55 ... 57
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.2 | SMF © 2006-2007, Simple Machines LLC Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
This forum is provided by a customer of Great Western Railway (formerly First Great Western), and the views expressed are those of the individual posters concerned. Visit www.gwr.com for the official Great Western Railway website. Please contact the administrators of this site if you feel that the content provided by one of our posters contravenes our posting rules (email link). Forum hosted by Well House Consultants

Jump to top of pageJump to Forum Home Page