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Author Topic: HS2 - Government proposals, alternative routes and general discussion  (Read 186687 times)
IndustryInsider
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« Reply #795 on: September 22, 2019, 09:11:52 pm »

Most of the article is hidden behind a paywall.  Does it go on to say which group or individual submitted the paper to the enquiry?
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« Reply #796 on: September 22, 2019, 09:16:54 pm »

There is also something of a suspicion of campaigns that require expensive extra costs on a scheme to mitigate what they claim are unacceptable impacts then try an kill the scheme off because of the extra cost of such works. 
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TaplowGreen
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« Reply #797 on: September 23, 2019, 06:53:14 am »

Most of the article is hidden behind a paywall.  Does it go on to say which group or individual submitted the paper to the enquiry?

The analysis and figure of £106.4 billion comes from Michael Byng, an infrastructure consultant who (ironically) devised the method used by Network Rail to cost its projects.
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CyclingSid
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« Reply #798 on: September 23, 2019, 07:09:15 am »

The general topic of "Mega Projects" is covered in an article in E and T: https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2019/09/big-project-big-delay/.

I assume that the Oxford Global Projects Database is not publicly available.
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stuving
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« Reply #799 on: September 23, 2019, 08:24:34 am »

Most of the article is hidden behind a paywall.  Does it go on to say which group or individual submitted the paper to the enquiry?

The analysis and figure of £106.4 billion comes from Michael Byng, an infrastructure consultant who (ironically) devised the method used by Network Rail to cost its projects.

I thought it might be him. He's basically a quantity surveyor, with a business supplying advice and (computer) systems for cost estimating. So while he may be a well-informed inside observer, he's not a domain expert on any of the engineering (nor I imagine land acquisition).
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IndustryInsider
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« Reply #800 on: September 23, 2019, 09:34:58 am »

The general topic of "Mega Projects" is covered in an article in E and T: https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2019/09/big-project-big-delay/.

I assume that the Oxford Global Projects Database is not publicly available.

A very interesting article, and well worth a read.  Also refreshing to see the evidence that the rail industry is no worse than any other for cost and time overruns, even if that doesn’t bode well for HS2 and future projects.
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TonyK
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« Reply #801 on: September 23, 2019, 11:11:23 am »

The general topic of "Mega Projects" is covered in an article in E and T: https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2019/09/big-project-big-delay/.

I assume that the Oxford Global Projects Database is not publicly available.

A very interesting article, and well worth a read.  Also refreshing to see the evidence that the rail industry is no worse than any other for cost and time overruns, even if that doesn’t bode well for HS2 and future projects.

It is very interesting indeed. I have another explanation that isn't too different.

Railway Man (RM): "We need a new railway, because the current one is based on the capacity we thought we would need when we last looked at it in 1963."
Secretary of State for Transport (SoS): "Blimey, have things changed since then? I hadn't noticed."
RM: "I have mentioned it before, but you keep getting changed, sometimes a different man, sometimes a different party."
SoS: "True, now you mention it. As it's so urgent, I shall act swiftly and decisively, and immediately commission a report to give recommendations just after the next election. "
RM: "That's been done three times. They all said we need a new railway."
SoS: "It sounds expensive. Find a cheaper way of accomplishing the same result."
RM: "We've done that twice. We still need a new railway."
SoS: "Bugger, I suppose we do. I'll have a word with the Prime Minister and Chancellor."
SoS: "Right, I've spoken to them. They think that a new railway could open up huge swathes of the north of England to new industry, and most importantly, win them votes. They are in favour, so how much will it cost?"
RM: "Double what it would have cost if we had built it when I first mentioned it, but half what it will cost if you dither for a few more years."
SoS: "That's still a lot of money. Make it a cheaper slower railway llike they have in Spain."
RM: "Spain has some brilliant new high speed trains that make ours look rubbish."
SoS: "WHAT??? We can't have that! Make ours better, faster, prettier, more frequent, better buffet serving the best of British food! Do it NOW!"
RM: "Got it. So you want a trolley selling warm beer, cold tea, and curry."
SoS: "That's it! But the Daily Mail won't like the cost estimate. Lower it."
RM: "How?"
SoS: "Use smaller numbers. We're not paying for it all in one lump sum, so it won't matter. We can blame Labour if we lose the next election, and the Liberal Democrats if we win. Make it, oh, I don't know - how old are you?"
RM: "54."
SoS: "Good. Make it £54 million - sorry £54 billion - and draw up some clever sums that arrive at that figure. This is an essential infrastructure project that will make Britain look ever so good!"
(Later, after the next election)
RM: "We need a new railway. Still."
SoS: "The new Prime Minister and Chancellor are right behind it, as it doesn't go through their constituencies. This is an essential infrastructure project that will make Britain look ever so good. Carry on!"
RM: "That fake price tag looks a bit dodgy. Shall I give the press thetrue figure?"
SoS: "Good god, man, have you taken leave of your senses? Of course not! Add a bit on maybe."
(Later, after another election)
RM: "We need a new railway."
SoS: "The Prime Minister is still behind it, as it doesn't go through her constituency, and might win more votes for her than it loses. Carry on. This is an essential infrastructure project that will make Britain look ever so good!"
(Later, after a leadership election)
RM: "We need a new railway. We've started building, and spent £7 billion so far."
SoS: "How much will this railway cost altogether?"
RM: "My age, my wife's age, plus the age of the cat. But this is an essential infrastructure project that will make Britain look ever so good!"
SoS: "No it isn't, it's a white elephant, a vanity project that could lose our new clown Prime Minister some votes. Besides, he needs the money to hide the cost of his new policies. Better add your neighbour's age to that figure to make it look bad."

And so on...
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Now, please!
Western Pathfinder
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« Reply #802 on: September 23, 2019, 01:14:36 pm »

By the looks of it m not the only one who would like to see the return of Yes Minister 😁
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Robin Summerhill
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« Reply #803 on: September 23, 2019, 04:47:44 pm »


For a newspaper to make such a claim these days seems only to require so anti campaigner who claims to be an 'expert' to make a claim.  I know that HS2 have been concealing some estimated overspend, but forgive me if I am naturally skeptical of such leaked claims via such a newspaper. 

And especially so given that newspaper's previous stance on the matter.
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TaplowGreen
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« Reply #804 on: September 23, 2019, 06:26:40 pm »

Well, the messenger is riddled with bullets, but strangely enough the message seems unscathed!  Wink

I do wonder if there is any sum of money at which the HS2 fan club would eventually admit that it's too much.
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ellendune
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« Reply #805 on: September 23, 2019, 06:45:12 pm »

Most of the article is hidden behind a paywall.  Does it go on to say which group or individual submitted the paper to the enquiry?

The analysis and figure of £106.4 billion comes from Michael Byng, an infrastructure consultant who (ironically) devised the method used by Network Rail to cost its projects.

Ok but,

1) we do not know how detailed a method he used (there are many different methods of costing using different levels of detail). I have costed infrastructure schemes in the past (not rail) and there different approaches from broad brush £x million per km to detailed cost build ups of each and every element of the scheme. We don't know what type of estimate this is. I assume this is an unofficial estimate so did he have access to all the current information on the project to enable him to make a reliable estimate? I suspect he did not so it will tend to be towards the broad brush end of the scale.

2) NR cost database will be for maintenance and replacement work on existing rail not new work off the route of the current railway so is the NR cost database relevant?

3) If he developed the NR cost model does he have access to use it. I would not expect to be able to use something I developed for one client using their data for anyone else without breaching the confidentiality terms of my contract. 


I am not questioning that there is going to be an overspend on the current agreed budget if the project goes ahead> What I am questioning is the validity of this and other unofficial estimates. 

 
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Red Squirrel
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« Reply #806 on: September 23, 2019, 06:56:06 pm »

I do wonder if there is any sum of money at which the HS2 fan club would eventually admit that it's too much.

It's a valid question.

Isn't the £106.4Bn budget for the full, 530km project? So that would work out at around £200M/km. Crossrail, at £17.6Bn for 22km, works out at £800M/km. Now I know I may not quite be comparing Granny Smiths with Cox's Orange Pippins, but by that benchmark HS2 might still be a bit of a bargain.

Both projects are pretty expensive compared with the Borders Railway (which cost just over £5M/km), though of course that was largely single track and diesel-powered.

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grahame
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« Reply #807 on: September 23, 2019, 07:00:40 pm »

[HS2] ...  So that would work out at around £200M/km.

Crossrail, at £17.6Bn for 22km, works out at £800M/km.

Both projects are pretty expensive compared with the Borders Railway (which cost just over £5M/km), though of course that was largely single track and diesel-powered.

So how much would the Borders Railway have cost per mile with knitting at the same time it was re-instated?
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ellendune
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« Reply #808 on: September 23, 2019, 07:12:25 pm »

[HS2] ...  So that would work out at around £200M/km.

Crossrail, at £17.6Bn for 22km, works out at £800M/km.

Both projects are pretty expensive compared with the Borders Railway (which cost just over £5M/km), though of course that was largely single track and diesel-powered.

So how much would the Borders Railway have cost per mile with knitting at the same time it was re-instated?

IIRC borders railway did not include long lengths of new tunnel or work in dense urban areas and land values for any land purchases were probably a tad less that extending Euston Station. 
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IndustryInsider
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« Reply #809 on: September 23, 2019, 08:37:57 pm »

I do wonder if there is any sum of money at which the HS2 fan club would eventually admit that it's too much.

A good question put in a slightly patronising way.

A figure of over £100bn would, for me, be too high.  But how do we know that figure is correct?  I'll be interested to see the results of the review when all submissions have been taken into account.  If it's cancelled, I will be very interested to see how the alternative plan to tackle future rail growth takes shape - how much that will end up costing, as well as the level of benefits it would provide compared to HS2 and the comparative levels of disruption there will be whilst it is undertaken. 

I will also be interested to see where all the spare money 'saved' gets spent.
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