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Author Topic: HS2 - Government proposals, alternative routes and general discussion  (Read 217913 times)
CyclingSid
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« Reply #855 on: November 14, 2019, 07:00:34 am »

Haven't we heard before that railways are things of the past? Beeching?
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TonyK
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« Reply #856 on: November 14, 2019, 03:27:20 pm »

Haven't we heard before that railways are things of the past? Beeching?

I entirely agree. To the learned don who suggested that driverless cars synchronised on motorways will be the future, I would put the questions when, why, and how. To implement his plan would require a significant proportion of the populace to buy or hire such a car, and those with insufficient funds to stay at home. The sight of a column of Leyland Brexits heading at 70 mph along a tarmaced railway line, each containing one snoozing passenger and stopping en masse when one runs out of whatever energy source it uses is unlikely to be seen anywhere.
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Red Squirrel
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« Reply #857 on: November 14, 2019, 04:44:18 pm »

We won't have the £88bn (and growing) in the Treasury coffers either. A lot of money is that.

Anyone fancy a game of whack-a-mole?

Quote
An investment is an asset or item acquired with the goal of generating income or appreciation. In an economic sense, an investment is the purchase of goods that are not consumed today but are used in the future to create wealth. In finance, an investment is a monetary asset purchased with the idea that the asset will provide income in the future or will later be sold at a higher price for a profit.

Important: An investment always concerns the outlay of some asset today (time, money, effort, etc.) in hopes of a greater payoff in the future than what was originally put in.
Source: Investopedia
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stuving
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« Reply #858 on: November 14, 2019, 06:14:11 pm »

Quote
An investment is an asset or item acquired with the goal of generating income or appreciation. In an economic sense, an investment is the purchase of goods that are not consumed today but are used in the future to create wealth. In finance, an investment is a monetary asset purchased with the idea that the asset will provide income in the future or will later be sold at a higher price for a profit.

Important: An investment always concerns the outlay of some asset today (time, money, effort, etc.) in hopes of a greater payoff in the future than what was originally put in.
Source: Investopedia

How quaint. I've heard politicians use the word "investment" a lot recently, and several times today. Not one of those examples was in that sense - nor even in the less financial sense of spending on capital assets which are useful over a period of many years. "Spending" would have been more apt in every case. Not a new trend, but it has gather pace in tha last few years.

What, I wonder, will be the new wording of choice if what is proposed is really investment in the old sense?
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TonyK
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« Reply #859 on: November 14, 2019, 10:16:45 pm »

We won't have the £88bn (and growing) in the Treasury coffers either. A lot of money is that.

Anyone fancy a game of whack-a-mole?

What I think I do for a job these days.

Quote
Quote
An investment is an asset or item acquired with the goal of generating income or appreciation. In an economic sense, an investment is the purchase of goods that are not consumed today but are used in the future to create wealth. In finance, an investment is a monetary asset purchased with the idea that the asset will provide income in the future or will later be sold at a higher price for a profit.

Important: An investment always concerns the outlay of some asset today (time, money, effort, etc.) in hopes of a greater payoff in the future than what was originally put in.
Source: Investopedia

And an economic miracle is when we all use our credit cards at the same time.
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Red Squirrel
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« Reply #860 on: December 25, 2019, 11:40:03 am »

This is rather old news, but let's hope Boris and Dominic don't see it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNixDlRoMvA
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Red Squirrel
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« Reply #861 on: January 15, 2020, 11:32:15 am »

Here we go again:

Quote
HS2 will destroy or damage hundreds of UK wildlife sites, says report
HS2 will destroy or irreparably damage five internationally protected wildlife sites, 693 local wildlife sites, 108 ancient woodlands and 33 legally protected sites of special scientific interest, according to the most comprehensive survey of its impact on wildlife.
Source: The Guardian

'108 ancient woodlands' is a link. Folllow it and you get:

Quote
It’s an enormous act of ecological vandalism’: the ancient forests under threat from HS2
The orange lifebuoys that pop up at random points in the countryside are the first sign of what the naturalist Chris Packham calls the biggest deforestation project in Britain since the first world war. They hang from posts beside shallow, newly dug ponds, surrounded by neat rows of spindly saplings.

These new landscapes are “compensation” for the partial destruction of 63 ancient woods that stand in the intended path of HS2, the high-speed rail line being carved through the countryside between London, Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds. (According to the Woodland Trust, 108 ancient woods are in the frame, when you also count those indirectly affected.) The idea is that, when the woods are felled after centuries of quiet growth, their wildlife, from great-crested newts to woodcock, may seek refuge in these new habitats.
Source: The Guardian

It's be interesting the see evidence of Packham's claim, or what kind of logic describes planting 7 million trees as 'deforestation', but did you also notice what happened to the 108 ancient woods that  were going to be destroyed or irreparably damaged in the first quote? Now, it seems, they are 'in the frame, when you also count those indirectly affected'.

If you're interested to understand the full scope of the terrible toll HS2 plan to wreak, you could do worse than read this document. It explains how, where ancient woodland is in the way, HS2 will move it and increase its size. They plan to increase the area of these woods by 50Ha.

 
« Last Edit: January 15, 2020, 12:37:49 pm by Red Squirrel » Logged
broadgage
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« Reply #862 on: January 15, 2020, 02:09:48 pm »

And also,
"if these smoke breathing fire snorting iron monsters are allowed to roam the countryside at will, horses will become extinct, country inns and taverns go bankrupt by the score, the hovels of the poor be tumbled down, crops destroyed by fire, cows will yield sour milk, hens wont lay, and the nation become covered in smoke, dirt and misery.
Consider also the bursting of the boilers, and the collapse of the bridges.
And from where is all this iron to be obtained ? it is already scarce and expensive."

Or brought up to date, "newts and bats will become extinct, other wildlife threatened, house prices will fall, children be thrown from their beds, terrorists will travel on the new trains, modern slavery and child labour will be encouraged to mine the minerals used in manufacture,  ancient buildings and monuments be destroyed, mental health endangered by the rays emitted from the electricity, and the nation thrown into a new recession."
« Last Edit: January 15, 2020, 03:32:17 pm by broadgage » Logged

A proper intercity train has a minimum of 8 coaches, gangwayed throughout, with first at one end, and a full sized buffet car between first and standard.
It has space for cycles, surfboards,luggage etc.
A 5 car DMU is not a proper inter-city train. The 5+5 and 9 car DMUs are almost as bad.
TaplowGreen
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« Reply #863 on: January 15, 2020, 06:01:55 pm »

And also,
"if these smoke breathing fire snorting iron monsters are allowed to roam the countryside at will, horses will become extinct, country inns and taverns go bankrupt by the score, the hovels of the poor be tumbled down, crops destroyed by fire, cows will yield sour milk, hens wont lay, and the nation become covered in smoke, dirt and misery.
Consider also the bursting of the boilers, and the collapse of the bridges.
And from where is all this iron to be obtained ? it is already scarce and expensive."

Or brought up to date, "newts and bats will become extinct, other wildlife threatened, house prices will fall, children be thrown from their beds, terrorists will travel on the new trains, modern slavery and child labour will be encouraged to mine the minerals used in manufacture,  ancient buildings and monuments be destroyed, mental health endangered by the rays emitted from the electricity, and the nation thrown into a new recession."

…….or put into the words of one of our esteemed Coffee Shop members, "Ooooooooooooooooos gonna pay for it?"  Wink
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grahame
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« Reply #864 on: January 20, 2020, 05:22:56 am »

From the BBC and no doubt also the Financial Times ...

Quote
Building the high-speed rail link HS2 could cost up to £106bn, a government-commissioned review has said.

The unpublished report, seen by the Financial Times, says there is "considerable risk" that estimated costs could rise by another 20%.

In 2015, HS2 was set to cost £56bn.

The review also recommends pausing the second phase of the project while experts look at whether conventional lines could help link Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds instead.

Long article continues ...
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Henry
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« Reply #865 on: January 20, 2020, 07:42:22 am »


 £100 bn. is a figure that I find difficult to get my head around, not being an accountant.
 So is this a spend likely to be spread over 10 years, say 10bn. a year?

 So in the Government spending regime, how does this compere with the cost of the N.H.S. , new roads or welfare benefits.
 I admit to being biased, as I believe the U.K. is lagging behind a lot our European 'partners' compared to their rail
 networks.
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TaplowGreen
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« Reply #866 on: January 20, 2020, 06:10:53 pm »

From the BBC and no doubt also the Financial Times ...

Quote
Building the high-speed rail link HS2 could cost up to £106bn, a government-commissioned review has said.

The unpublished report, seen by the Financial Times, says there is "considerable risk" that estimated costs could rise by another 20%.

In 2015, HS2 was set to cost £56bn.

The review also recommends pausing the second phase of the project while experts look at whether conventional lines could help link Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds instead.

Long article continues ...


Here's the FT report;

https://www.ft.com/content/307e3606-3ab7-11ea-a01a-bae547046735
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Red Squirrel
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« Reply #867 on: January 20, 2020, 06:36:13 pm »

From the BBC and no doubt also the Financial Times ...

Quote
Building the high-speed rail link HS2 could cost up to £106bn, a government-commissioned review has said.

The unpublished report, seen by the Financial Times, says there is "considerable risk" that estimated costs could rise by another 20%.

In 2015, HS2 was set to cost £56bn.

The review also recommends pausing the second phase of the project while experts look at whether conventional lines could help link Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds instead.

Long article continues ...


Here's the FT report;

https://www.ft.com/content/307e3606-3ab7-11ea-a01a-bae547046735

Oooooze gonna pay for a subscription so I can read this?

...and why is the report unpublished?
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Noggin
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« Reply #868 on: January 20, 2020, 09:50:35 pm »


 £100 bn. is a figure that I find difficult to get my head around, not being an accountant.
 So is this a spend likely to be spread over 10 years, say 10bn. a year?

 So in the Government spending regime, how does this compere with the cost of the N.H.S. , new roads or welfare benefits.
 I admit to being biased, as I believe the U.K. is lagging behind a lot our European 'partners' compared to their rail
 networks.

Well, some of the money has been spent already in land acquisition, site preparation, legal and other consultant fees etc., but yes, 10 years seems a reasonable timeframe.

It doesn't just get HS2 - it gets massive rebuilds of Euston and Sheffield, a whole new set of transport interchanges at Old Oak Common, Birmingham Airport, Toton etc, new city centre stations at Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester etc. It also gets a chunk of classic line upgrades, and it seems reasonable to think that there will be a number of innovative uses found for the new infrastructure and freed-up capacity - such as Nottingham to Birmingham and Nottingham to Leeds 'Javelin'-style commuter services over HS2, station reopenings along the WCML and MML etc. TfWM are also planning the expansion or Moor Street around it. So a lot of 'bang' for our bucks.

As for the money to pay for it, the rolling stock can reasonably be expected to be leased from the private sector, there's some partnership with the private sector on the development of Euston and Birmingham Airport, the rest will effectively be long-term Government borrowing, which is about the cheapest money you can get short of just printing it.

Yes, it's a lot of money, but don't forget that a large amount goes straight back into the Government's coffers anyway through VAT, National Insurance, Corporation tax of all those involved in it, and it ripples out through the economy. It is also likely to promote further economic growth, so it's a bit like a company investing in a bigger factory, it should pay back the loan and more



   

 

 

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broadgage
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« Reply #869 on: January 20, 2020, 09:54:39 pm »

I forecast that it will cost about £560 billion, or about ten times the original cost.
Spread not over years, but over decades, so as to make the cost per year seem a bit more reasonable.

Or if not completed, that the cost of the completed portion will be pro-rata to £560 billion for the complete project.
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A proper intercity train has a minimum of 8 coaches, gangwayed throughout, with first at one end, and a full sized buffet car between first and standard.
It has space for cycles, surfboards,luggage etc.
A 5 car DMU is not a proper inter-city train. The 5+5 and 9 car DMUs are almost as bad.
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