HS2 - Government proposals, alternative routes and general discussion

[whole diary]

[eightonedee]

There's an excellent Green Signals podcast & You Tube video (latter at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTcp0ZQiMuw&t=227s) this week explaining exactly what the impact of cancelling stage 2A will be.

Hang your head in shame Rishi Sunak, and yours too Rachel Reeves for being so quick to refuse to review the decision.

[TaplowGreen]

Could be a U turn approaching?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/22/labour-to-reconsider-building-scrapped-hs2-route/

[TonyK]

Could be a U turn approaching?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/22/labour-to-reconsider-building-scrapped-hs2-route/

U-turns aren't easy on railways. In any case, I don't think anyone has yet said "Definitely not". I couldn't read the paywalled article, but have picked up the gist from other sources.

It may be less an about turn, and more the result of a thorough trawl through the figures. For certain, we know that stopping then restarting in the future will add enormous cost. The first question, does it still need doing, shouldn't take too long to answer if your government wants to ease pressure on existing transport corridors and stimulate growth. The alternatives to achieve the same result were looked at years ago. There could then be a sober assessment of what it would cost to cancel, how much work has already been contracted, and any other additional costs that would have to be met, go or no-go. In that latter category, I have seen a suggestion that HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) carriages will need extra doors to improve dwell times if they are going to mix with mere mortal traffic, and may also need steps down because of differing platform heights. The final cost between building and not building might not be so great as we have been led to believe. A decision one way or the other will be unpopular somewhere, so politically would be best taken at the start of a government with a big majority. It might even be a good time to reintroduce the Golborne link.

[Mark A]

For Handsacre to Crewe in particular, I'm not sure it's even a U-turn. The decision to cancel that was the equivalent of a passenger hitting the button and kicking off an unconsidered emergency brake and the principle, the legislation and the planning for that part of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) has a lot of mass. Arguably its forward momentum while a bit virtual is still there for the taking.

Mark

[Electric train]

Could be a U turn approaching?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/22/labour-to-reconsider-building-scrapped-hs2-route/

It could only be regarded as a U-turn if the Conservative's had won the GE, whilst I agree Labour had stated they would not automatically reveres the previous Government decision to cancel HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) phase 2, it would have been foolhardy not have carried out a review of the section North of Handsacre Jcn, the CEO^▸ (Chief Executive Officer) of Network Rail, Andrew Haines, raised concerns and impact the decision by the previous PM would have on the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) with the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about).

The capacity release for virtually the whole WCML is to build a Stafford avoiding line, Stafford is where the real bottleneck is currently.  The new line may not be build to the full HS2 spec but even a modern 125 - 150 mph route will give a vast improvement

[TaplowGreen]

Could be a U turn approaching?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/22/labour-to-reconsider-building-scrapped-hs2-route/

It could only be regarded as a U-turn if the Conservative's had won the GE, whilst I agree Labour had stated they would not automatically reveres the previous Government decision to cancel HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) phase 2, it would have been foolhardy not have carried out a review of the section North of Handsacre Jcn, the CEO^▸ (Chief Executive Officer) of Network Rail, Andrew Haines, raised concerns and impact the decision by the previous PM would have on the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) with the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about).

The capacity release for virtually the whole WCML is to build a Stafford avoiding line, Stafford is where the real bottleneck is currently.  The new line may not be build to the full HS2 spec but even a modern 125 - 150 mph route will give a vast improvement

I based my use of the phrase "U Turn" on this from Starmer......

BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) News - HS2 northern leg not possible to revive - Starmer
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-67924577

And the quote within it......."Sir Keir Starmer says his party will not revive the northern leg of HS2 if they win the next general election" - which I think most reasonable people would consider pretty unequivocal?

[Electric train]

Could be a U turn approaching?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/22/labour-to-reconsider-building-scrapped-hs2-route/

It could only be regarded as a U-turn if the Conservative's had won the GE, whilst I agree Labour had stated they would not automatically reveres the previous Government decision to cancel HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) phase 2, it would have been foolhardy not have carried out a review of the section North of Handsacre Jcn, the CEO^▸ (Chief Executive Officer) of Network Rail, Andrew Haines, raised concerns and impact the decision by the previous PM would have on the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) with the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about).

The capacity release for virtually the whole WCML is to build a Stafford avoiding line, Stafford is where the real bottleneck is currently.  The new line may not be build to the full HS2 spec but even a modern 125 - 150 mph route will give a vast improvement

I based my use of the phrase "U Turn" on this from Starmer......

BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) News - HS2 northern leg not possible to revive - Starmer
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-67924577

And the quote within it......."Sir Keir Starmer says his party will not revive the northern leg of HS2 if they win the next general election" - which I think most reasonable people would consider pretty unequivocal?

It is still pragmatic to review the options North of Handsacre Jcn, the right of way has legal powers, the land has be acquired.  It does not need to be built to HS2 line speed though.

Building the "Stafford bypass" will leverage most of the added capacity of HS2 phase 1 the only way to get the full benefit of phase 1 would be Bashford Hall station at Crewe and the platform works at Manchester and Glasgow, which still remain cancelled

[Sixty3Closure]

Not sure if this is covered elsewhere but a report in The Times today (12/09/24). Probably sounds familiar to anyone who's worked in Project Management.

"The absence of a guiding mind, a single accountable individual in Westminster or Whitehall taking ownership of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)), led to runaway costs and ultimately the cancellation of the second leg of the high-speed railway project north of ­Birmingham to Manchester.

That is a key conclusion of a report by the Institution of Civil Engineers into one of the great national debacles of recent times, which says that the lack of ­a multi-decade commitment to such a large-scale infrastructure scheme left HS2 open to cancellation by a prime minister able to overturn predecessors’ decisions without recourse to parliament."

[TaplowGreen]

Interesting alternative proposal?

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/plan-to-build-cheaper-version-of-scrapped-hs2-northern-leg-unveiled-and-journeys-would-only-be-15-minutes-longer/ar-AA1qu8Wq?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=b541e92022844906803719db12943552&ei=11

A little ominously;

The report did not provide an estimated cost of the new project.....

However;

...."said financing should be "maximised from the private sector", with central and local governments "partnering to fund the balance".

[ChrisB]

The i paper appears to have picked up on this too

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/labour-will-look-at-hs2-north-replacement-as-mayors-point-to-70bn-growth/ar-AA1qu1uY?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=8b95985b869f4d468b1e59c010bdd4de&ei=10

[Noggin]

Analysis of this on the WNXX^▸ (Stored Unserviceable, Mainline Locos HQ All Classes) forum if anyone is interested - https://wnxxforum.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=37546&start=425

In short, it's almost exactly the same route, a little more expensive in the long-run with ballasted track, a bit slower but still 85 minutes Euston to Manchester which seems pretty reasonable to me. 

[Electric train]

Analysis of this on the WNXX^▸ (Stored Unserviceable, Mainline Locos HQ All Classes) forum if anyone is interested - https://wnxxforum.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=37546&start=425

In short, it's almost exactly the same route, a little more expensive in the long-run with ballasted track, a bit slower but still 85 minutes Euston to Manchester which seems pretty reasonable to me. 

It is not just about shaving time off of passenger journey time to Manchester and even Glasgow, the key thing it will do is leverage the capacity for freight that phase 1 of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) will creates South of Midlands

[TonyK]

It is not just about shaving time off of passenger journey time to Manchester and even Glasgow, the key thing it will do is leverage the capacity for freight that phase 1 of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) will creates South of Midlands

Exactly so. So long as it is built to take the planned HS2 trains, the speed is not vital. And if it transpires in years to come that speed is vital after all, track can be replaced using slab as it wears out. Tunnels and viaducts will surely use slab track anyway.

[stuving]

Not sure if this is covered elsewhere but a report in The Times today (12/09/24). Probably sounds familiar to anyone who's worked in Project Management.

"The absence of a guiding mind, a single accountable individual in Westminster or Whitehall taking ownership of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)), led to runaway costs and ultimately the cancellation of the second leg of the high-speed railway project north of ­Birmingham to Manchester.

That is a key conclusion of a report by the Institution of Civil Engineers into one of the great national debacles of recent times, which says that the lack of ­a multi-decade commitment to such a large-scale infrastructure scheme left HS2 open to cancellation by a prime minister able to overturn predecessors’ decisions without recourse to parliament."

That ICE report is ICE Briefing Paper: The cancellation of HS2’s northern leg – learning lessons

I didn't get a clear idea from it of what might or could have been possible if the whole project had been better done from the start. Maybe that's too much to ask for! This commentary has no named author, so presumably it is an institutional opinion.

Two other ICE reports are relevant here. Civil engineering insights on HS2 and alternative proposals is a narrative of the project's evolution to 2022, with limited discussion of some of the cost-reducing alternatives proposed. And Reducing the gap between cost estimates and outturns for major infrastructure projects and programmes does pretty much what its title says. It has rather more about managing risk, unforeseen changes, and expectations than getting estimates that predict outturns.

[Electric train]

Not sure if this is covered elsewhere but a report in The Times today (12/09/24). Probably sounds familiar to anyone who's worked in Project Management.

"The absence of a guiding mind, a single accountable individual in Westminster or Whitehall taking ownership of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)), led to runaway costs and ultimately the cancellation of the second leg of the high-speed railway project north of ­Birmingham to Manchester.

That is a key conclusion of a report by the Institution of Civil Engineers into one of the great national debacles of recent times, which says that the lack of ­a multi-decade commitment to such a large-scale infrastructure scheme left HS2 open to cancellation by a prime minister able to overturn predecessors’ decisions without recourse to parliament."

That ICE report is ICE Briefing Paper: The cancellation of HS2’s northern leg – learning lessons

I didn't get a clear idea from it of what might or could have been possible if the whole project had been better done from the start. Maybe that's too much to ask for! This commentary has no named author, so presumably it is an institutional opinion.

Two other ICE reports are relevant here. Civil engineering insights on HS2 and alternative proposals is a narrative of the project's evolution to 2022, with limited discussion of some of the cost-reducing alternatives proposed. And Reducing the gap between cost estimates and outturns for major infrastructure projects and programmes does pretty much what its title says. It has rather more about managing risk, unforeseen changes, and expectations than getting estimates that predict outturns.

HS2 has always been cursed by a bad client .......... the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) Government which from its inception has been a vanity project for various Government Sectaries of State, Ministers and Prime Ministers the need to build it as one of fastest in Europe 360 km/h (225 mph) and not at a more sedate speed of HS1^▸ (High Speed line 1 - St Pancras to Channel Tunnel) 300 km/h (190 mph) or even just a 225 km/h (140mph) with more emphasise on the capacity and not the 15 mins off of the journey London / Birmingham.