Crossrail/Elizabeth Line. From construction to operation - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[Electric train]

"Rail project runs years behind schedule and way over budget".......who'd have thought it? 🤦‍♂️

There is a reason .......... 

Railway Engineers over the las 2 centauries have learnt to tell the Politicians and their supporting Civil Servants what they want to hear they not like hearing the accurate facts; so the Railway Engineers knowing something will take 10 years to build will agree with the Politicians and Civil Servants who want it done in 8. 

The UK^▸ (United Kingdom) works in a 4 year political cycle - 6 months post election to get their act together, 2 years euphoria try to meet their manifesto and then 2 years try to set themselves up for the next general election and then year 5 of the Parliament is electioneering.

In reality things get achieved in the first 2 1/2 years, nothing controversial gets done in the next 2.

Where as Railway Engineering has a 20+ year plan

[TaplowGreen]

"Rail project runs years behind schedule and way over budget".......who'd have thought it? 🤦‍♂️

There is a reason .......... 

Railway Engineers over the las 2 centauries have learnt to tell the Politicians and their supporting Civil Servants what they want to hear they not like hearing the accurate facts; so the Railway Engineers knowing something will take 10 years to build will agree with the Politicians and Civil Servants who want it done in 8. 

The UK^▸ (United Kingdom) works in a 4 year political cycle - 6 months post election to get their act together, 2 years euphoria try to meet their manifesto and then 2 years try to set themselves up for the next general election and then year 5 of the Parliament is electioneering.

In reality things get achieved in the first 2 1/2 years, nothing controversial gets done in the next 2.

Where as Railway Engineering has a 20+ year plan

Interesting anecdote - I'd love to see the evidence!

Does the same philosophy apply to costs? "Yes of course we can deliver HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) for £36 billion!" 

[IndustryInsider]

This is an interesting article and associated research paper showing how common overruns and cost escalations are in all sectors, not just rail:

https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/cost_overruns_of_major_government_projects

[TaplowGreen]

This is an interesting article and associated research paper showing how common overruns and cost escalations are in all sectors, not just rail:

https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/cost_overruns_of_major_government_projects

Interesting indeed - I note that rail projects had by far the highest average cost escalation (page 4) and the organisation you cite have produced a lot of interesting articles on HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) as well, which dwarfs most of the others in terms of cost overrun;

https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/scrap_hs2

[IndustryInsider]

Yes indeed, they’ve put an awful lot of effort into trying to stop the HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) project over the years.  So far to no avail.

[Electric train]

"Rail project runs years behind schedule and way over budget".......who'd have thought it? 🤦‍♂️

There is a reason .......... 

Railway Engineers over the las 2 centauries have learnt to tell the Politicians and their supporting Civil Servants what they want to hear they not like hearing the accurate facts; so the Railway Engineers knowing something will take 10 years to build will agree with the Politicians and Civil Servants who want it done in 8. 

The UK^▸ (United Kingdom) works in a 4 year political cycle - 6 months post election to get their act together, 2 years euphoria try to meet their manifesto and then 2 years try to set themselves up for the next general election and then year 5 of the Parliament is electioneering.

In reality things get achieved in the first 2 1/2 years, nothing controversial gets done in the next 2.

Where as Railway Engineering has a 20+ year plan

Interesting anecdote - I'd love to see the evidence!

Does the same philosophy apply to costs? "Yes of course we can deliver HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) for £36 billion!" 

Yes because time to build equates to cost, you can never tell a politician and civil servant taht yes we can build it in half the time but it will cost twice as much

This is an interesting article and associated research paper showing how common overruns and cost escalations are in all sectors, not just rail:

https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/cost_overruns_of_major_government_projects

Interesting indeed - I note that rail projects had by far the highest average cost escalation (page 4) and the organisation you cite have produced a lot of interesting articles on HS2 as well, which dwarfs most of the others in terms of cost overrun;

https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/scrap_hs2

I think it says a lot about how UK PLC goes about its public work, there is still the Victorian philosophy that private finance should be raised with no State funding

[ellendune]

This is an interesting article and associated research paper showing how common overruns and cost escalations are in all sectors, not just rail:

https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/cost_overruns_of_major_government_projects

Interesting indeed - I note that rail projects had by far the highest average cost escalation (page 4) and the organisation you cite have produced a lot of interesting articles on HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) as well, which dwarfs most of the others in terms of cost overrun;

https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/scrap_hs2

The taxpayers alliance is a shadowy extreme right wing lobby group whose funding is a closely guarded secret.  I am not sure how much weight I would put on any so called research they publish. 

[TaplowGreen]

This is an interesting article and associated research paper showing how common overruns and cost escalations are in all sectors, not just rail:

https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/cost_overruns_of_major_government_projects

Interesting indeed - I note that rail projects had by far the highest average cost escalation (page 4) and the organisation you cite have produced a lot of interesting articles on HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) as well, which dwarfs most of the others in terms of cost overrun;

https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/scrap_hs2

The taxpayers alliance is a shadowy extreme right wing lobby group whose funding is a closely guarded secret.  I am not sure how much weight I would put on any so called research they publish. 

Right wing for sure, but describing the Taxpayers Alliance as "Shadowy Extreme right wing" puts them in the same bracket as neo Nazi groups which is a little silly, although I get that it's being used pejoratively.

Messenger shooting aside however, which data/findings from the report cited by II are you challenging exactly?

Much of it seems to come from HM Treasury commissioned studies, the NAO and the like.

[ellendune]

Much of it seems to come from HM Treasury commissioned studies, the NAO and the like.

The number of references to other taxpayers alliance report is notable.  I would not trust the references to NAO reports without checking whether they had properly used the evidence in those reports.

Right wing for sure, but describing the Taxpayers Alliance as "Shadowy Extreme right wing" puts them in the same bracket as neo Nazi groups which is a little silly, although I get that it's being used pejoratively.

How would you describe an organisation that has seems to be well funded but does not say where it comes from and puts forward ultra right wing libertarian economic views similar to the extreme right in the USA? Indeed it has been shown to have links to such organisations. Like them they also oppose policies designed to combat climate change. 

I am not saying there is no truth in anything they write, but I would consider what they say with extreme caution. 

[IndustryInsider]

I did consider whether I should post a link to a Taxpayers Alliance report as I’ve been critical of them before and I was fairly confident TG wouldn’t be able to stop himself from picking up his HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) bone again.

I decided I would as it seemed to be one of their more balanced pieces, and demonstrated that whilst the railways are probably the worst offender when it comes to overspending and delays on initial major project costs, they are by no means alone. 

Some of the projects, such as the primary school refurbishment one, I’d never even heard of.

[TaplowGreen]

I did consider whether I should post a link to a Taxpayers Alliance report as I’ve been critical of them before and I was fairly confident TG wouldn’t be able to stop himself from picking up his HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) bone again.

I decided I would as it seemed to be one of their more balanced pieces, and demonstrated that whilst the railways are probably the worst offender when it comes to overspending and delays on initial major project costs, they are by no means alone. 

Some of the projects, such as the primary school refurbishment one, I’d never even heard of.

The ability to acknowledge that organisations with which you don't generally agree can on occasions be correct or at least add value is a sign of a strong intellect II, (and on that basis I'll forgive the ad hominem, which detracts from it!) 😉

[grahame]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page)

London's Crossrail project will be "shut down" without an additional ?1.1bn, transport bosses have said.

Papers from a Transport for London (TfL^» (Transport for London - about)) finance committee meeting say the issue has become "increasingly critical" as the project "will soon have committed all of its funds".

The route - known as the Elizabeth Line - was initially due to open in December 2018 but has faced numerous delays.

TfL said discussions about funding were taking place with the government.

In July, the Crossrail board said the line's central section, from Paddington to Abbey Wood, was not expected to be ready until "the first half of 2022" while more funding could also be needed.

[TaplowGreen]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page)

London's Crossrail project will be "shut down" without an additional ?1.1bn, transport bosses have said.

Papers from a Transport for London (TfL^» (Transport for London - about)) finance committee meeting say the issue has become "increasingly critical" as the project "will soon have committed all of its funds".

The route - known as the Elizabeth Line - was initially due to open in December 2018 but has faced numerous delays.

TfL said discussions about funding were taking place with the government.

In July, the Crossrail board said the line's central section, from Paddington to Abbey Wood, was not expected to be ready until "the first half of 2022" while more funding could also be needed.

I guess in the "new normal" there's a discussion to be had about whether it's still justifiable to be pouring more and more money into a scheme for which demand is likely to be far lower than was originally anticipated, but notwithstanding that, the financial situation and delays are ridiculous.

Nice trains though, and TfL have given Taplow a much enhanced service, as well as an improved station environment and ever friendly staff!

[ellendune]

I guess in the "new normal" there's a discussion to be had about whether it's still justifiable to be pouring more and more money into a scheme for which demand is likely to be far lower than was originally anticipated, but notwithstanding that, the financial situation and delays are ridiculous.

But what have you got if you don't put more money in?  You can't send it back and get a refund on what is spent.  So in economic terms the question is whether the whole benefit of completing the scheme is worth the extra ?1 billion or so?  Not whether the benefit is worth all that will have been spent. 

[TaplowGreen]

I guess in the "new normal" there's a discussion to be had about whether it's still justifiable to be pouring more and more money into a scheme for which demand is likely to be far lower than was originally anticipated, but notwithstanding that, the financial situation and delays are ridiculous.

But what have you got if you don't put more money in?  You can't send it back and get a refund on what is spent.  So in economic terms the question is whether the whole benefit of completing the scheme is worth the extra ?1 billion or so?  Not whether the benefit is worth all that will have been spent. 

As I said, there's a discussion to be had, but there clearly needs to be more accountability for these projects which vastly exceed budgets and timings.

I suspect, given the usual railway form, some years (more likely decades) down the line, we will be facing similar discussions over massive cost increases/time overruns with HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) - in the case of cost of course, we already are.