New Oxford - Bristol direct service, ongoing developments and discussion

[whole diary]

[grahame]

Someone was asking how these would show up on our disruption map ... yep, they do ...

13:09 Bristol Temple Meads to Oxford due 14:29

13:09 Bristol Temple Meads to Oxford due 14:29 is being delayed between Bath Spa and Swindon and is now expected to be 17 minutes late.
This is due to a late running freight train

13:03 Oxford to Bristol Temple Meads due 14:15

13:03 Oxford to Bristol Temple Meads due 14:15 is being delayed between Swindon and Chippenham and is now expected to be 32 minutes late.
This is due to a late running freight train.

Very odd in effecting trains in both directions - shunt movement at Royal Wootton Bassett?

[bobm]

Freight was held on the up line so reversible working was needed - which obviously does affect both lines.

[Richard Fairhurst]

Everything was running late at Oxford on Friday afternoon, but while waiting for my train home I noticed the 1700 to Bristol was very healthily loaded. It left Oxford 22 minutes late but was only 9 late by Bristol, by the looks of it thanks partly to a scheduled six-minute dwell at Bath. https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:G15077/2026-05-22/detailed

[IndustryInsider]

Everything was running late at Oxford on Friday afternoon, but while waiting for my train home I noticed the 1700 to Bristol was very healthily loaded. It left Oxford 22 minutes late but was only 9 late by Bristol, by the looks of it thanks partly to a scheduled six-minute dwell at Bath. https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:G15077/2026-05-22/detailed

Yes, plenty of allowances for pathing and engineering works on that one.

I think the quickest I noted last week did the full Oxford to Bristol journey in 1h 5m after starting a little late from Oxford, so I guess that is pretty much the optimal time using an IET^▸ (Intercity Express Train - replacement for HSTs (manufactured by Hitachi in Kobe, Japan)).

[TaplowGreen]

09:03 Oxford to Bristol Temple Meads due 10:11
09:03 Oxford to Bristol Temple Meads due 10:11 will be cancelled.
This is due to a shortage of train crew.

11:18 Bristol Temple Meads to Oxford due 12:29
11:18 Bristol Temple Meads to Oxford due 12:29 will be cancelled.
This is due to a shortage of train crew.

13:03 Oxford to Bristol Temple Meads due 14:15
13:03 Oxford to Bristol Temple Meads due 14:15 will be cancelled.
This is due to more trains than usual needing repairs at the same time.

15:04 Oxford to Bristol Temple Meads due 16:13
15:04 Oxford to Bristol Temple Meads due 16:13 will be cancelled.
This is due to more trains than usual needing repairs at the same time.

[grahame]

Oh dear ... teething troubles for the new service, or is GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) / NR^» (Network Rail - home page) locally in meltdown?  Journeycheck is reporting 40 cancellations across the GWR operated services this morning, and a further  21 updates which look like they're largely short runs (cancellations for some).

[IndustryInsider]

Oh dear ... teething troubles for the new service, or is GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) / NR^» (Network Rail - home page) locally in meltdown?  Journeycheck is reporting 40 cancellations across the GWR operated services this morning, and a further  21 updates which look like they're largely short runs (cancellations for some).

Is that ten days into the new service before the first cancellation?  After the hottest ever temperatures recorded in May and easily the hottest Bank Holiday Monday on record (including the August one)? 

With exceptional heat comes all sorts of additional stresses on the GWR service which as we know is already fragile.

Literally a meltdown I would say!

[John D]

Oh dear ... teething troubles for the new service, or is GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) / NR^» (Network Rail - home page) locally in meltdown?  Journeycheck is reporting 40 cancellations across the GWR operated services this morning, and a further  21 updates which look like they're largely short runs (cancellations for some).

Is that ten days into the new service before the first cancellation?  After the hottest ever temperatures recorded in May and easily the hottest Bank Holiday Monday on record (including the August one)? 

With exceptional heat comes all sorts of additional stresses on the GWR service which as we know is already fragile.

Literally a meltdown I would say!

It might be (very) hot for May, but late July / early August is on average the hottest time of year.   We are not in the high 30s

Does ask a big question though, what temperature should be the stress point.  I would argue that anything failing at the moment is either not maintained well, or was under specified.   

Have to accept that temperatures in low to mid 30s are not uncommon in recent years, and really should be able to be handled without failing.

GWR territory is not like somewhere like Chicago or Vienna where temperatures vary from about -25-20c to +40-45c.   So why our equipment is allowed to be so fragile is not clear to me.

[grahame]

Oh dear ... teething troubles for the new service, or is GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) / NR^» (Network Rail - home page) locally in meltdown?  Journeycheck is reporting 40 cancellations across the GWR operated services this morning, and a further  21 updates which look like they're largely short runs (cancellations for some).

Is that ten days into the new service before the first cancellation?  After the hottest ever temperatures recorded in May and easily the hottest Bank Holiday Monday on record (including the August one)? 

With exceptional heat comes all sorts of additional stresses on the GWR service which as we know is already fragile.

Literally a meltdown I would say!

With so many problems on other services that show resources stretched, reasons like "not enough working trains" and "not enough working staff" for cancellations of the service that's just ten days old brings something of a wry smile.   Issues which are hightened by extreme weather are more forgiven.

But yet ... the Bristol <-> Oxford service has been doing very well compared to certain others ...

... and I can't help wondering if some of those cancellations which were cause by lack of a working train or lack of working staff would have actually been cancellation if GWR wasn't so stretched to make the new service reasonably reliable. Are they trying to spread things too thinly? 

[IndustryInsider]

It might be (very) hot for May, but late July / early August is on average the hottest time of year.   We are not in the high 30s

Does ask a big question though, what temperature should be the stress point.  I would argue that anything failing at the moment is either not maintained well, or was under specified.   

Have to accept that temperatures in low to mid 30s are not uncommon in recent years, and really should be able to be handled without failing.

GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) territory is not like somewhere like Chicago or Vienna where temperatures vary from about -25-20c to +40-45c.   So why our equipment is allowed to be so fragile is not clear to me.

It's a good question.   I would argue that the ability to handle extreme heat is actually better than it was 5-15 years ago, despite that heat arriving more often.  I don't recall any really major issues* over this heatwave so far, and my memory of 5-15 years ago was that whenever the temperature hit 30 degrees there was a high likelihood the service would collapse completely.

You could spend a whole heap of money replacing things with higher tolerances, but does that offer good value for two to three spells over 30 degrees each summer?

And is Chicago or Vienna much more immune to weather related incidents?  Or do we just not hear about them?

I don't have much experience of either, other than a visit to Vienna in the early 1990s, but a quick Google brought up the following...

https://metra.com/Service-disruptions

https://www.visahq.com/news/2026-01-13/at/bb-issues-nationwide-travel-warning-as-ice-storm-knocks-out-inter-city-rail-links/

* By which I mean complete cessastion of services on the trunk GWR routes

With so many problems on other services that show resources stretched, reasons like "not enough working trains" and "not enough working staff" for cancellations of the service that's just ten days old brings something of a wry smile.   Issues which are hightened by extreme weather are more forgiven.

But yet ... the Bristol <-> Oxford service has been doing very well compared to certain others ...

... and I can't help wondering if some of those cancellations which were cause by lack of a working train or lack of working staff would have actually been cancellation if GWR wasn't so stretched to make the new service reasonably reliable. Are they trying to spread things too thinly? 

Much too early to draw any conclusions either way. 

In terms of comparisons with the TransWilts I don't think there is any interface with either the trains or the staff that work each route, so the only impact they might have on each other is the shared tracks between Thingly Junction and Swindon...and obviously more trains running over a route increases the chances of knock-on delays.

[grahame]

In terms of comparisons with the TransWilts I don't think there is any interface with either the trains or the staff that work each route, so the only impact they might have on each other is the shared tracks between Thingly Junction and Swindon...and obviously more trains running over a route increases the chances of knock-on delays.

Oh - I agree with you ... I was imagining the cascading that might go on ...

"We're short of a driver from Bristol to Oxford and that's a High Vis service"
"OK - let's take George off the Bristol to Salisbury - he can drive an IET^▸ (Intercity Express Train - replacement for HSTs (manufactured by Hitachi in Kobe, Japan)) and knows the road"
"But who will drive the Salisbury train"
"We can take Gillian off the Westbury to Swindon shuttle for that"
"So who will drive the TransWilts train"
"Oh - we'll cancel that ... it's no longer a high vis service with ministerial interest"

[ChrisB]

It also carries at least half of the number of customers of te other routes mentioned.

[grahame]

It also carries at least half of the number of customers of te other routes mentioned.

With 26% cancellations and nothing else for a number of hours, are we surprised that passenger numbers are so low - though they are typically way, way above the target numbers when the service was introduced  .

Not looking for the lowest common denominator.   Looking for an operation that runs well over 95% of the services it promises in the timetable rather than 74%

[IndustryInsider]

Oh - I agree with you ... I was imagining the cascading that might go on ...

Believe me, they're neither that devious...nor that clever!

[bobm]

"We're short of a driver from Bristol to Oxford and that's a High Vis service"
"OK - let's take George off the Bristol to Salisbury - he can drive an IET^▸ (Intercity Express Train - replacement for HSTs (manufactured by Hitachi in Kobe, Japan)) and knows the road"
"But who will drive the Salisbury train"
"We can take Gillian off the Westbury to Swindon shuttle for that"
"So who will drive the TransWilts train"
"Oh - we'll cancel that ... it's no longer a high vis service with ministerial interest"

Dangerous to read too much into one month's figures - but in April TransWilts passenger numbers were up on April last year and April 2019.   I think that is the first time it has got above pre-pandemic levels.

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