Delivering South West England’s New Economy - Greengauge21 Report

[whole diary]

[ChrisB]

Greenguage21 latest report

Greengauge 21’s latest report sets out the case for a transformational economic opportunity across Devon and Cornwall — and the vital role that resilient transport connectivity must play in securing it.

As Jim Steer, Director, Greengauge 21 explains; the report “shines a light on the prospect of a huge regional-scale economic stimulus in Devon and Cornwall.” But he cautions that this opportunity “could be squandered if the region’s transport links are left in their current fragile state.”

The analysis identifies three powerful economic forces now converging in the South West: rising housing demand and supply, the growth of new industries, and significant investment in nationally important defence assets. Combined with the shift away from five-day office attendance, these trends are encouraging people and businesses to see the merit of living and operating year-round in Devon and Cornwall.

To capitalise on this moment, the report argues that dependable, all-weather rail links are essential. The South West’s vulnerability is stark: Plymouth is the only city of its size and significance without a motorway connection and is reliant on a single, sometimes fragile, rail route to the rest of the country.

Greengauge 21 sets out a practical and deliverable solution — the creation of a second rail connection to Plymouth, restoring Tavistock to the national rail network and transforming resilience across the region. The success of reopening the Exeter–Okehampton line four years ago, which has exceeded expectations, demonstrates why the next stage onward to Plymouth is now so critical.

The report also highlights the urgent need to strengthen rail routes east of Exeter, ensuring that both the Paddington and Waterloo corridors are fit for purpose. With road investment schemes on the A303 and A358 abandoned, “make-do and mend has run its course.” A resilient railway is essential to support both passenger growth and increasing rail freight demand.

For the Salisbury–Exeter route, the report notes that private sector investment is already lining up to fund the necessary improvements — underlining that solutions exist and that the time to act is now.

You can read the full report here:
http://www.greengauge21.net/wp-content/uploads/Delivering-South-West-Englands-New-Economy.pdf

[TaplowGreen]

How much would it cost?

[Witham Bobby]

How much would it cost?

I think it's possible that the proposals could be realised at a fraction of the cost-per-mile that's being poured into HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) (which has all the signs of being a money pit with now bottom)

The cost of not making the south-west more resilient and better connected also needs to be weighed

[REVUpminster]

I wonder if the best option for a new rail link is to build a new inland line linking Exeter with Newton Abbot leaving the existing line for local stopping trains.
The cost of reinstating the Northern route via Tavistock to double track could be more expensive as no contingency was made when reinstating passenger services to Okehampton.

[trainbuff]

In 2014 when Network Rail assessed options a double track, all singing all dancing route via Okehampton, including a new Meldon viaduct was costed at £875m. Alternatively, the cheapest diversionary route between Exeter and Newton Abbot, involving many tunnels was costed at £1.45bn raising higher for longer tunnels. And it still leaves the problem of the Devon Banks of course

[Noggin]

The reality with projects in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) is that the best chance of getting something built is to probably to re-instate Tavistock with some Plymouth dockyard development money, refurb Meldon viaduct for stone traffic and relay track with some heritage/strategic construction industry money, then find some kind of "regional connections" money to support a single track between Meldon and Tavistock and a 2-hourly service between Plymouth and Exeter (jobs/education/sustainable travel etc).

Of course, as soon as that's open, it will be blindingly obvious that double tracking and resignalling is required (probably the first time that Dawlish is closed), and it will then have money thrown at it by Civil Servants to dodge any accusations of "why wasn't it done properly in the first place".

But ultimately it seems unlikely to happen under a cash-strapped Labour Government who would gain little political capital from it.

 

[Red Squirrel]

I've expressed opinions about the resilience of the route west of Plymouth before, but since September - when my son started at Exeter Uni at Penryn - I have had the opportunity to walk a mile in another man's shoes, as it were.

They're not very comfortable.

It is unusual to be able to make the journey from Montpelier to Penryn without problems. These range from annoying delays to needing to postpone or abandon the entire journey.

Crosscountry services are almost always overcrowded, and the trains are... seedy. They also seem to be very prone to delay and cancellation, and are slow to recover when there is major disruption. This seems to be an inevitable feature of services which run from one end of the island to the other. GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) services tend to be better and more comfortable (if you take a cushion!). But overall, it is a journey to be endured rather than enjoyed.

The railway at Dawlish is a unique point of failure. There is no other place on the network where a breach can isolate an entire county - six branch lines and around 175km of main line - from the rest of the country. Storms are getting bigger and more frequent, and the sea level is rising. Even if the line is able to resist the worst of the weather it will still be necessary to close it more often and for longer periods in the future. This part of the network is just too important to rely on a single coastal route.

Within Cornwall the branch lines seem to be becoming less reliable. The Liskeard-Looe Branch has been closed for over a month due to storm damage; the Newquay Branch was closed over the weekend due to flooding.

And yet the trains are busy. Even on a cold Sunday in January, the Falmouth line trains are buzzing.

In Bristol, we are at last beginning to see the effects of decades of underinvestment being reversed. Further west much more is needed. Who's going to pay for it? Like any good investment, it should pay for itself. The economic cost of the eight-week closure in 2014 was in the region of £1bn - over half the slated cost of reinstating the northern route (wasn't it £1.6bn?). The new sea wall has stood up well to the latest storms, but that's only fixed the most exposed area - the Teign and Exe estuaries are likely to become more vulnerable as sea levels rise. I would bet my shirt on another major failure before Bristol gets trams!

[trainbuff]

The cost in 2014 of the Northern Route all singing, all dancing ewith brand new Meldon Viaduct was £875m. Less than the money lost due to closure. And of course this does not have to be built as double track all the way. Additionally Okehampton has already opened so would reduce cost, relatively speaking. The cheapest other route, excluding the old line via Chudleigh, was £1.49bn