Maidenhead station - services, facilities, car parking and incidents (merged posts)

[whole diary]

[TaplowGreen]

3) I am sure several different bodies made estimates.
     a) Were they wrong?

Estimates for the 2005 - 2012 franchise period were based on 0.8% growth compound, whereas 8% growth compound was what happened (ball park figures across the South West).  Follow on shorter term franchises have been based on "carry on with the same".

To give you an idea, 100 passenger at 0.8% over 8 years will take you up to 108 passengers, but at 8% growth takes you up to 215 passengers - in other words trains are carrying twice what was planned for.   For sure, the Adelantes have come back and 2+7 have become 2+8;  Cardiff - Portsmouth has been re-increased from 2 to 3 cars and more stock brought into the area, but certainly there's not been a doubling.   Something IS being done - Crossrail, electrification - but that's not yet on stream.

That's very interesting Grahame - so really all the "additional" capacity coming via Crossrail, IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project. This will offer more capacity on routes, save money, give a consistent and safe service and meet customer requirements. Intended to replace HSTs.) etc is only really going to be having the effect of running to stand still......does anyone really think that everyone will get a seat once these new trains arrive? And how long (if the 8% growth continues, more likely to increase I would have thought?) will it be before we are once again as chronically overcrowded as we are now?

[grahame]

Take a look at these growth graphs ... various south west / FGW^▸ (First Great Western) territory areas:

http://www.wellho.net/demo/railuse.php?place=BS

http://www.wellho.net/demo/railuse.php?place=SL

http://www.wellho.net/demo/railuse.php?place=OX

http://www.wellho.net/demo/railuse.php?place=TR

[ellendune]

The 8% compound growth at the London end is related partly to the growth in the economy of London and the lack of or unaffordability of housing in London. As a result of this politicians were encouraged to put more investment into London's infrastructure.  However unless the housing issue is resolved the problem just moves further and further out.  

In other areas changing work patterns, particularly with two earners per household, when people change jobs they do not move, they simply commute further and further.  This travelling reduces their quality of life and ultimately, I suspect, their productivity.

We cannot and should not stop people who want to commute long distances. We could keep adding more and more capacity but at some point we are going to have to start to address the root causes that lead to so many people travelling ever further each day to work.

 

[grahame]

The top one of my graphs is the one I'm most familiar with - the Bristol area.   The others may not be quite as high - still 4% to 6% compound growth, though!

Over the period of the last Franchise only ONE station with a BS postcode failed to grow at above the predicated rate, and that was Pilning; the failure to grow traffic there isn't (in my view) particularly significant in the overall picture, but perhaps it does provide a control / reminder of the results you gat from a station with an ineffective service / no nurtured traffic flows.

It's been suggested that "growth like this won't go on for ever" and indeed there are *some* signs of the increase rate coming down.   The recession, perversely, may have increased the gain as people had to travel further to work and could afford fewer private cars per family ... I'm not an economist, so I may be talking / repeating a load of cobblers.

[NickB]

If my memory serves me correctly the anticipated growth at Maidenhead between 'now' and crossrail is 1m journeys.

That's approx an extra 2000 passengers every work day.

[johoare]

Further questions come to mind:

1) was there not a time when they all did fit into a 3 car dmu?

It used to be 5 carriages for quite a while.. They "borrowed" the extra carriages at least a couple of years ago (if not before that) to give to another train.. No sign of them coming back yet

[IndustryInsider]

does anyone really think that everyone will get a seat once these new trains arrive?

I don't think anyone who understands how a metro style railway works would expect that, no.  The large standing capacity being built into the Crossrail trains hints at that.

What I would expect is for the extra trains and longer trains to make a significant impact on commuting from Maidenhead as you should be getting 8/9 carriage trains for every service in the peak (and most outside of the peak).  Within central London and out as far as West Drayton I would expect standing passengers within the peaks still - but not at the silly crush levels they are at now.

[stuving]

does anyone really think that everyone will get a seat once these new trains arrive?

I don't think anyone who understands how a metro style railway works would expect that, no.  The large standing capacity being built into the Crossrail trains hints at that.

What I would expect is for the extra trains and longer trains to make a significant impact on commuting from Maidenhead as you should be getting 8/9 carriage trains for every service in the peak (and most outside of the peak).  Within central London and out as far as West Drayton I would expect standing passengers within the peaks still - but not at the silly crush levels they are at now.

Is there still a 20 minute limit on "acceptable" standing for Crossrail? And if so, where is it to be measured to? Obviously not Paddington, but at least Liverpool Street. And that's 31 minutes from West Drayton (allegedly).

[paul7575]

I don't think anyone who understands how a metro style railway works would expect that, no.  The large standing capacity being built into the Crossrail trains hints at that.

I'm thinking that people who aren't quite sure will still be convinced to expect a seat by the regular witterings in the (Evening) Standard's leaders...

Paul

[paul7575]

Is there still a 20 minute limit on "acceptable" standing for Crossrail? And if so, where is it to be measured to? Obviously not Paddington, but at least Liverpool Street. And that's 31 minutes from West Drayton (allegedly).

The rule is that where stations are less than 20 mins apart then there is an allowance for standing.  If stations are more than 20 mins apart then there is no allowance.  It isn't written as a '20 minute limit' on standing, AFAICS^▸ ('as far as I can see').

However the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about)'s regular overcrowding report mentions in the small print that the rule only applies to franchises that they let - so it may not apply to Crossrail at all...

Paul

[ChrisB]

That 20-minute indicator doesn't apply to TfL^» (Transport for London - about) Rail

[grahame]

The 20 minute rule has some interesting side effects - I've quoted from above on the Cardiff -> Portsmouth board where there is one 21 minute section in the middle of the run and it causes (technically) a capacity bottleneck just in that section.

See:  http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=15772.0

[TaplowGreen]

I don't think anyone who understands how a metro style railway works would expect that, no.  The large standing capacity being built into the Crossrail trains hints at that.

I'm thinking that people who aren't quite sure will still be convinced to expect a seat by the regular witterings in the (Evening) Standard's leaders...

Paul

.........an expectation that the constant crowing about ^7.5 billion of investment, new trains, "Building a Greater West" etc will do much to encourage and little to manage.

[IndustryInsider]

I guess we'll have to see, won't we.  There will be no excuses, in terms of physical capacity, for not running all peak London suburban trains of between 8-9 carriages, and the outer suburban and longer distance ones at 9-12 carriages.

For everyone suggesting that capacity might be quickly used up, there is someone else predicting that the cost of running the new trains will be so much that fares will rise to an extent few people will be able to afford.  I don't subscribe to either of those views, but also think I'm realistic enough to realise that there may be certain trains and certain times of the day when people still won't be able to find a seat.

When the upgrade in its current specification is complete, there's no reason why that has to be the end of improvements to capacity.  For example, Crossrail's underground stations themselves are designed with passive provision for extension of the trains to 240m from the current 200m, and Reading station has been designed to handle large increases in passengers for decades to come.  I hope a similar future-proofing will be made at locations such as Maidenhead and West Drayton during the major track alterations that have started to be constructed to allow for longer trains.  Bringing in those enhancements won't be cheap, but at least will be possible.

[phile]

Back to the alighting and boarding issue, I have often experienced a situation in other parts of the country where people usually do stand back, but after waiting for the flow to disembark, I have found when passing from the vestibule to the carriage itself, somebody who's suddenly woken up trying to force their way through you in their bid to alight.  Rather awkward if more than one and a number of people boarding behind you.