This is a test of GDPR / Cookie Acceptance [about our cookies]
Really irritating test - cookie expires in 24 hour!
Putting a number on the effect on passengers of cancellations
10.5.2025 (Saturday) 20:36 - All running AOK
 
Putting a number on the effect on passengers of cancellations
Posted by grahame at 14:59, 10th May 2025
 
There's never been an obvious measure that I've seen to compare the effect of service cancellations  on passengers. Which is a shame, because passenger trains are provided (or are supposed to be) for the people who use them - or could use them - and who live near the stations. 

I remember a web site someehere to the south of where I live that use to shout that trains were cancelled for OPERATIONAL CONVENIENCE ... and clearly there is no measure there.   

So what have I tried?
* The population within the station catchment area multipled it by
* The percentage of short notice cancellations over the past 12 weeks and multiplied that by
* The average daytime interval between trains in the most frequent direction

So for example - Frome -
Catchment area population   - 25000
Average gap between trains in the same direction on the major service - 50
Cancellation Rate - 3 (percent)
Multiply together - 3,750,000 - and the lower the figure, the better

Trowbridge:
Average gap between trains in the same direction on the major service - 20
Cancellation Rate - 3 (percent)
Catchment area population   - 40000
Multiply together - 2,400,000

Salisbury:
Average gap between trains in the same direction on the major service - 30
Cancellation Rate - 2 (percent)
Catchment area population   - 45000
Multiply together - 2,700,000

Tisbury:
Average gap between trains in the same direction on the major service - 60
Cancellation Rate - 1 (percent)
Catchment area population   - 2500
Multiply together - 150,000

This is clearly not going to work particularly well for stations which are primarily destinations - the population of Looe, for example, is low and catchment is a poor choice.  Similarly, where stations are predomianty city stations with long distance traffic and rail does not form so much of a short distance facility such as Plymouth they will be outside this symplistic envelope - but what do others think of the methodology before I share other figure in our area?

 
The Coffee Shop forum is provided by customers of Great Western Railway (formerly First Great Western). The views expressed are those of the individual posters concerned. Visit https://www.gwr.com for the official Great Western Railway website. Please contact the administrators of this site at admin@railcustomer.info if you feel that the content provided by one of our posters contravenes our posting rules. Our full legal statment is at https://www.greatwesternrailway.info/legal.html

Although we are planning ahead, we don't know what the future will bring here in the Coffee Shop. We have domains "firstgreatwestern.info" for w-a-y back and also "greatwesternrailway.info"; we can also answer to "greatbritishrailways.info" too. For the future, information about Great Brisish Railways, by customers and for customers.
 
Current Running
GWR trains from JourneyCheck
 
 
Code Updated 11th January 2025