A year on - looking forward

[whole diary]

[grahame]

In 2013, there were 2 passenger trains each way per day on the line from Chippenham to Trowbridge via Melksham, and they carried very few passengers - they were poorly times, didn't work together for commuter or leisure round trips, and were poorly publicised.

In 2014, an extra 6 trains each way were added off peak, making a much more useful service. Publicity was increased, improvements made at stations and with bus integration, and passenger numbers have grown significantly.  The new trains are all busier than the old ones used to be - some to the extent of having passengers standing on a regular basis, and even the original trains are now very, very much busier because (in each case) one of the new services adds a natural out-and-back round trip possibility to that service.

The increase in use didn't all come at the very start of the new service - there was a big jump in use at the start, but then growth has continued through the year.  So what do we have to look forward to in 2015, and beyond?   Will growth carry on, and if so, how far and how fast will it go?   What other issues do we have to consider around the service in looking forward to providing an appropriate service into the foreseeable future?


This is the first in a series of posts ... and much of the content will go public in due course.  At present, it's draft writing based on inputs from CRP^▸ (Community Rail Partnership) officers and other sources (including my own knowledge).

[grahame]

Defence - there will always be questions "is this service working".  There are the following possible threats in just the next 4 years.  I'm getting this list out of the way here, early in this thread, so that we can then go on and look positively - but we must also watch the present and plans as well as for the positive future

0. There are concerns over operational robustness which could effect user sentiment, with a current 3% cancellation rate
   - many of the problems relate to Signalling problems
   - some problems relate to freight trains that are running very late
   - some problems relate to lack of crew or a problem with the train - seems to be first to cancel
   - delays of over 30 minutes are almost as bad as cancellations, and are not unknown

1. We already have answered a consultation for the franchise from September 2015 which suggested that the original 2 services might not be included
   - we have been verbally assured by civil servants that they did not intend to word the document to threaten these services
   - these services are a key part of the integrated 8 trains each way per day;  cull them and you damage the returning traffic on new trains too

2. A recent indication from Wiltshire Council indicated that the future of the Melksham Rail Link bus (3000 journeys per annum) is uncertain next financial year
   - bus users are especially vulnerable to service failures; use will build slower than train in this market so an early cut is absurd
   - the bus was intended as a stop-gap until new service bus stops, northern access to the station and extra car parking were available. Still awaited so bus should continue at least until the alternative is in place

3. The current service is funded under an LSTF^▸ (Local Sustainable Transport Fund) grant as a trial service until 10th December 2016
   - We are promised that if it works it can be rolled into the franchise
   - However, evaluation is unclear and Claire Perry (August 2014) was quoting econimic measures as well as passneger numbers, which use an algorithm which can make car to train transfers a negative dur to government loss of fuel tax revenue.

4. When electrification is completed via Swindon and Local Swindon - Gloucester services are replaced with through London trains, how are the original 2 services which come off that line going to be provided?
   - There is a risk of them simply ceasing to run. A repeat of concern (1) at a later date.
   - The natural approach is to use the train in question on the Swindon - Westbury as at present, and enhance services by running it on the TransWilts when in the past it would have been used on the Gloucester line
   - This would result in hourly Swindon - Westbury services

5. When train services from London via Westbury are recast with new trains, what happens to TransWilts / connections to the South West
   - There is an excellent opportunity at this point to complete the TransWilts service to Salisbury, giving a 30 minute interval service all the way from Cardiff to Portsmouth on that main line.
   - There is also a risk that other service would be recast leaving the TransWilts wit whatever happens to be left - a "curiously erraic" service

6. Train tickets are accepted on the 234 bus after 10pm at night - a valuable extra service. But bus services can change at 6 weeks notice
   - Wilts Council are cutting back and we do not feel confident in the 234 service providing a connection long term
   - It is noticable how strong train passenger number are compared to bus numbers, and an extra train round trip could replace the bus

[grahame]

Where could it go?

OK - we've grown dramatically in 2014.  Will that growth carry on in 2015?

Yes - we believe growth WILL continue, although it could be stunted in certain circumstances:
   - If services continue to be cancelled / very seriously delayed on a regular basis (3% cancellation unacceptable;  1% liveable)
   - If service access is reduced - e.g. if Melksham Rail Link bus ceases without promised replacement
   - We have already had people being denied boarding due to overcrowding / 117 people on a 78 seat train, etc. 
Why do we believe it will continue to grow
   - Proportion of population using rail still very low indeed via Melksham (one eighth of other towns)
   - Indications are that we have not yet tapped leisure market to any great extent
   - Many people still dont know / not tried the service
   - Growth has been trhoughout the year on year and continues
   - New housing and businesses and changing of jobs will continue to bring people across
2015 will see six weeks of signifcicant disruption (perhaps 3 weeks of trains replace by buses) which will effect figures
   - 25% growth in overall useage over 2014 will be excellent in these circumstances

Interim conclusion ... we should not and cannot plan for just a "steady state" service at it is now.

On organisation, The Community Rail Partnership was admitted to the Association of Community Rail Partnerships in April 2014.  It's been vounteer run as a loose but constitued group since its inception, but that
   - puts undue pressure and reliance on a handful of volunteers
   - makes it difficult to engage as a serious stakeholder at times
and we're proposing to become The TransWilts CIC^▸ (Community Interest Company ) (Community Interest Company) at the AGM^▸ (Annual General Meeting) on 30th January 2015.   Volunteers will continue to be key, but this move allows the CRP^▸ (Community Rail Partnership) to make payments for work done, including managing its resources, to someone taking the role of Community Rail Officer, and also to someone taking the press and publicity portfolio who's available to do so to the extent that the job requires, rather than relying on a volunteer with other commitments.

[Andrew1939 from West Oxon]

I haven't seen any recent mention on this forum of the station use stats for the year ending March 2014 that were published recently. Melksham shows as:

3346   MKM^» (Melksham (Station code) - next trains)   Melksham   South West   Wiltshire   West Wiltshire   UKK1   Gloucestershire, Wiltshire and North Somerset   First Great Western             3,751     3,522     4,692     11,965     3,751     3,522     4,692     11,965     23,930     12,080     -      1   0   Significantly improved timetable from December 2013   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melksham_railway_station

The Excel format used makes it difficult to find individual station figures this year without reformating.

An almost 100% increase but that, of course conceals the real increase as the year on year figures only take account of a part year availability of the more frequent service so y/e March 15 should show a further increase.

See: http://orr.gov.uk/statistics/published-stats/station-usage-estimates

[grahame]

I haven't seen any recent mention on this forum of the station use stats for the year ending March 2014 that were published recently. Melksham shows as:

3346   MKM^» (Melksham (Station code) - next trains)   Melksham   South West   Wiltshire   West Wiltshire   UKK1   Gloucestershire, Wiltshire and North Somerset   First Great Western             3,751     3,522     4,692     11,965     3,751     3,522     4,692     11,965     23,930     12,080     -      1   0   Significantly improved timetable from December 2013   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melksham_railway_station

The Excel format used makes it difficult to find individual station figures this year without reformating.

An almost 100% increase but that, of course conceals the real increase as the year on year figures only take account of a part year availability of the more frequent service so y/e March 15 should show a further increase.

See: http://orr.gov.uk/statistics/published-stats/station-usage-estimates

12000 in 2012-2013 ... about 1000 per month

If there were 1000 per month until the service improvement in mid December, there would then have to have been just under 4500 per month for the rest of December, and for Jan, Feb and Mar to reach the 24000 figure for the 2013 - 2014 year.

[Trowres]

If there were 1000 per month until the service improvement in mid December, there would then have to have been just under 4500 per month for the rest of December, and for Jan, Feb and Mar to reach the 24000 figure for the 2013 - 2014 year.

That would be about 150 boarding & alighting per day, which is rather more than has been observed so far and perhaps double the observations in the early part of the year. Part of the discrepancy could be explained by the 1000 per month pre-improvement being too low, but not all of it.

[grahame]

If there were 1000 per month until the service improvement in mid December, there would then have to have been just under 4500 per month for the rest of December, and for Jan, Feb and Mar to reach the 24000 figure for the 2013 - 2014 year.

That would be about 150 boarding & alighting per day, which is rather more than has been observed so far and perhaps double the observations in the early part of the year. Part of the discrepancy could be explained by the 1000 per month pre-improvement being too low, but not all of it.

In both old and new, there may be an element of people who have purchased return longer distance tickets, but only used the local section in one direction.   Indeed as I write I'm on a Melksham to Swansea ticket.  I started off from Melksham as there was a train at roughly the right time, but on my return I'll bail at Chippenham if I have just missed the train - especially if it's the last train so my ticket will be accepted on the bus.


I've just come back to edit this ... we are very often getting double figures now for entrance+exit , and 10 is the average needed for that 4500.  I suspect that the 12000 may also have been a bit high and that the figures are in proportion.

[grahame]

Two more sections ... text for checking (please) ready for Sunday 

* This Year

We're celebrating today the first full year of the newly improved train services between Westbury and Swindon. Later in the day, the trains will be carrying over 200 people to see Santa, and in the early evening we're running our first Folk Music train

A new timetable starts today - changes are small, but it still means that all station timetables need to be changed, web sites updated, and literature refreshed for 2015 - and it provides an excellent opportunity for us to remind people about the train services and encourage there use over the winter months.

Network Rail's Route Unilisation Strategy is out for consultation and lays out their suggestions through to 2043. It's good to see them proposing an extra signal on the TransWilts (in about 10 years time) as that indicates an understanding that we're growing not shrinking. But whilst that proposal is in the right direction, we believe it's too little too late, and we'll be making other suggestion for the coming years in terms of infrastructure provision..

* Next Year

In January, we're setting up the TransWilts Community Interest Company from CRP^▸ (Community Rail Partnership) members, giving the community a more formally constituted basis to allow us to move community rail officer and press and publicity roles from amateur spare-time jobs to part time, professional, remunerated. This will allow activities to expand to service the increased line use which has been running well in advance of forecasts, and will let overstretched volunteers to a little less but do it a lot better. Station groups for Swindon, Chippenham and for associated transport links such as rail connections and bus services are part of this ongoing organisational upgrade, and we'll continue to hold our twice yearly "TransWilts Link" meetings where all transport groups from Wiltshire get together to learn of each other's aspirations and plan for co-ordinated inputs to operators and local and national authorities.

Marketing of the line will continue, with early Spring, May and summer campaigns. 2015 will see service changes, with, we hope, a recast of Sunday services from May to even out the curently erratic serice and re-introduce the summer only early morning service to run all year.

Summer will being 6 weeks of significant service changes while the direct line from Chippenham to Bath is closed for electirication work, and this will be challenging. However, the parties are working together to minimise journey disruption, and to take advangate of exta opportunities offered during this school holiday period - watch out for some exciing day trip opportuniies.  We're also working together on a couple of special train opportunities, again as a promotional aid.

Community Rail Partnerships adopt stations, but you've seen little so far from the TransWilts in thsi field.  That will change in 2015, with projects floated for the bay platform at Swindon, for Chippenham, and for Melksham where major upgrades are to be completed in the next 3 months and we'll have a stable canvas to work on. There are plans for Trowbridge too, with Wiltshire Council, local developers, and the Heart of Wessex CRP taking the lead rather than the TransWilts CRP.

The TransWilts line has been a sleepy backwater for a number of years, and 2014 tested the infrastructure and operational limits. For 2015, we're looking for reliability to be improved to industry targets, and for ticketing arrangements to be updated to ensure that everyone buys a ticket.

Bus services can change at short notice, and so every year there's a need to look after our connecting services.  The Melksham Rail Link bus is carrying around 3000 journeys per annum and needs to be secured until service buses start calling at the station and the northern link to Foundry Close is opened, and the useful acceptance of train tickets on the late evening 234 services between Chippenham and Trowbridge needs extending back from a 22:00 to a 21:30 start time.

[bobm]

Trademark typos 

Para 2: their not there

Para 3: Utilisation not Unilisation

Para 4: do a little less not to a little less

Para 5: currently not curently

Para 6: electrification not electrification
            extra not exta

Para 7: this not thsi

However to take nothing away - an excellent summary of where we've been, are now and intend to go.

[grahame]

* This Decade (to the end of 2019)

1. The current trial of extra Swindon to Westbury trains runs to December 2016 and planning is needed in good time to ensure an appropriate service runs beyond that date. Other changes such as new franchises, electrification through Swindon and Chippenham, and a recast of West of England services calling at Westbury (as that line is part-electrified) lead to both risks and opportunities. The communities, local authorities and rail industry need to work together to ensure a suitable service pattern is the outcome.

2. Continued urban growth in North West Wiltshire (new homes on the drawing board for a further 5,000 residents in Melksham alone, for example), increasing congestion and a requirement to follow a healthy and sustainable agenda will all continue to push traffic up along the TransWilts rail corridor.  And the line has considerable growth to come in any case before it reaches even close to the road/rail ratio of other train-served areas.

3. Current trains need to be disability compliant (doors and toliets are not).  And they're getting old, and newer diesel trains will be released from elsewehere by electrification.  Current trains are too short, and already overcrowded at times - we have seen 117 people on a 78 seat train.

Planning to put (1),(2) and (3) together, we anticipate a replacement of the current "153" single coach trains with "165" or "166" classes (2 or 3 coaches).  Services that continue north of Swindon will turn back there when that line gets all through London trains, and the current erratic local service from Westbury to Salibsury is ripe for recast when Westbury timetables change. The net result is an hourly Swindon to Salisbury TransWilts service, calling at all stations.

During electrification work, passive provision needs to be made for a station at Corsham, a station at Royal Wootton Bassett, improvements at Thingley Junction and for a loop at Chippenham to reistate the old (currently trackless) platform to allow expresses to pass regional trains, and to hold laterunning freight.  At Chippenham, provision of major new station facilities follow from this very quickly, with a view to Chippenham becoming the turnback point for the Bristol to Bath and Bathampton (Bristol Metro) service. This also gives regional trains passing through Corsham to provide the service there.  It is anticiapted that these trains could extend to Swindon and Oxford, as proposed by a parliamentary group, and this is an excellent proposal with widespread support.

A new station at Wilton, to service the Park and Ride, and to provide linkage for Stonehenge tour buses now that the visitors centre has moved, is desirable. Other significant tourist draws are being built in this area too. Services to be provided by the by-then hourly Swindon to Salisbury service, and by extnding the two services per hour that terminate at Salisury from the east with long layovers.  Off the TransWilts but in Wiltshire, a new station for Porton Science Park is anticipated.

Also within this decade, we look forward to improved information systems and integrated services and ticketing across buses and trains in Wiltshire and beyond.

* Within the next Decade (to 2025)

Indicators are that the TransWilts Corridor will continue to grow in passenger use, and also as a secondary freight route from the Midlands and North to and from Southampton. It will remain a major alternative route from London to the West of England, and that will become more important as we move toward the strategic goal of a 24 hour, 7 day railway.

Extra signals and the Chippenham loop have already been mentioned, but it's probable that many more improvements wil be required over the years, and the following options are foreseen.

a) re-instatement of a through track alongside the currently unsused platform face at Westbury

b) provision of double junctions with long enough double track sections at Bradford Junction and Thingley Junction to enable the longest regular trains to wait off the main lines for passage along the TransWilts, or to wait for the mainline while allowing a further service onto the TransWilts

c) redoubing of the TransWilts thoughout from Thingley to Bradford - possibly with just a short single or interlaced section at the bridge over the river Avon at Staverton

d) Electrification of the TransWilts, and provision of longer distance services

e) Re-instatement of the Bradford North curve (removed 1990) for diversionary purposes, and for the provision of some direct trains Melksham to Bath Spa and Bristol / Bradford-on-Avon to Chippenham and Swindon.

This is not intended to be a comprehensive list, and whilst all projects listed appear to be worth detailed evaluation most are at an early stage.

[bobm]

Para 3: toilets not toliets

Para 4: Typo in first mention of Salisbury

Para 7: Typo in the second mention of Salisbury.

Also suggest laterunning is two words in para 5.

[TeaStew]

Paragraph 5 - anticiapted in last sentence and in 6 extnding in penultimate sentence.

[grahame]

Fixes all applied (and a couple by email too) and passed to our graphic artist ;-) .. Thank you ..

[grahame]

Rolled together into a handout ... http://atrebatia.info/TWRhistorybook.pdf

[grahame]

... and we're proposing to become The TransWilts CIC^▸ (Community Interest Company ) (Community Interest Company) at the AGM^▸ (Annual General Meeting) on 30th January 2015.   Volunteers will continue to be key, but this move allows the CRP^▸ (Community Rail Partnership) to make payments for work done, including managing its resources ...

Here's my writeup / follow up on that - initially in this limited area of the board, to go public after review (written on train in odd moments, so plenty of typos) and 24 hours.

There's a big difference between Twenty Thousand (20,000) and Two Hundred Thousand (200,000).

There were somewhat under 20,000 train journeys made on the Chippenham to Trowbridge (via Melksham) railway line in the year to December 2013, and we anticipate that the number will be close to 200,000 in the year to December 2015 (it was already up to around 160,000 in the year to December 2014).

Community Rail Parnerships help put 'new life into local lines' (that the Association of Community Rail Parnerships (ACoRP^▸ (Association of Community Rail Partnerships))) tag line. Our TransWilts Community Rail Parnership was set up in 2012 to help support the line, and brings the community, the rail industry and the local councils together to help support the line and its use, for the mutual good. And in April 2014, after a lengthy application procedure and initial rejection then further caveats, we were accepted as members. We were running on a shoestring, totally with volunteer organisation, and with (initially) just 2 trains each way per day, supplemented from December 2013 by an additional single carriage shuttling up and down from 3 to 6 times per day.

There's a big difference between Twenty Thousand (20,000) and Two Hundred Thousand (200,000).  And our structure and operation for a service with 20,000 journeys was creaking at the seems as the service rose to 160,000 and heads for 200,000 and - in a foreseeable future - perhaps 400,000.   There are so many things that we would like to do, that we're pretty sure would bring rich rewards in traffic, and in social and econimic gain to the area served, but yet as we were set up we hd a bottleneck at the CRP admin level.  We're not unique in this - talk with other CRP admin / officers, and you'll find they talk about their main pinch point being their own time and admin - funding for small projects and finding volunteers not really being of concern as compared to their own time.  And - as purely volunteers - I and Lee (who's in essence job-shared with me) have produced results, but could have done so much more and indeed there's much more to be done for us to look after, retain, and help further develop th customer base.

So, as from 31st January 2015, the TransWilts Community Rail Partnership has become a division of the TransWilts Community Interest Company (CIC).  That's a structure that's well tested in the community / rail support sector - with nearby CRPs such as Severnside using this structure, and TravelWatch SouthWest being another.  It adds a formallity, a layer of accountabiity and gravitas to our little gang of enthusiastic amateurs, and it allows us to move up a step and sit at the table with others, helping them be secure in who we are, why we are there, and what our objectives are.   It also adds a mechanism to allow the existing keen team of people to work closley together and to draw on each other's skills better, including allowing me to divest a lot of the admin work that's so time consuming (and that I'm awful at) onto others, and to put at least a little time each week aside for rail business, knowing that my costs are now covered.

There's one aspect of TransWilts that differs from many other Community Rail lines. We're a line in the middle of the National Rail Network.   From Swindon, there are connections to South Wales, to London, and to Cheltenham Spa for the North.  At Chippnham and at Trowbridge there are connections for Bath and Bristol.  And at Westbury, there are connections for Weymouth, Taunton, Devon and Cornwall ... some of our trains running on (and some connection) to Salisbury, thence Southampton and Portsmouth.  That's an unusual (but not unique) metric for a community line; they're often single rather than double ended for connections, and this natural connectivity makes a huge proportion of our journeys "network" ones.   We're also got a heavy regular daily commuter traffic already, and with further potential, and we link five major towns (7 adding the Warminster and Salisbury extension to some services) - there are no tiny stations set in the middle of the countryside, but rather urban stations where our passengers are looking at bus links onwards, and at other town links.   From our viewpoint, these are all really positive things for the future - yet they mean that we have moved on from 20,000 (and being the smallest line in terms of traffic) to 160,000 (comparable to the other lines in the First Great Western area that operate less than hourly) in a single year - and we still have a long way to go.

So - how will the TransWilts CIC work?

We have a board of directors - President, Chair, Finance, Secretary and Community Rail Officer - looking out for and after the divisions / individual areas in the network.  As CRO, I can now say "yes, that's me" rather than "I suppose I do that" to many task, but yet Paul Johnson as Chair, Phil McMullen as sectrary, Mike Harley as accountant and Peter Blackburn as President all take a lot of the load / weight off my shoulders.  Everyone's an expert in their own areas - in fact I'm 4th out of 5 in the length of rail experience I have in Wiltshire, and in the working with rail organisations.  So that frees up some of my time to catch up and work my own business, and my time to be doing the CRO role which very much comes to line support and press and publicity.

Peter and Paul are exceptionally experinced in rail matters - formally a member of the Transport User's Consultative Committee, and formally chair of Knorr Bremse and the local LEP^» (Local Enterprise Partnership - about) (local enterprise partnership), they've got the expertise and contacts to help look and plan ahead and ensure that things develeop for the future with the best outcome - not only for the TransWilts section but also truely across (or Trans) Wilts.  This is very much a development that was foreseen by the consttution which already looks at ongoing and linkage services "to from in and through" Wiltshire, and is fully supported and encouraged by both the Wiltshire Council portfolio holder for public transport, and the Wiltshire Cabinet member who is very much linked with Transport and is on the TravelWatch SouthWest board.

Connectional issues and linking all the public transport modes together - the complete network - are a key part of the main network in Wiltshire.  We've already established a twice a year "TransWilts Link" forum / meeting at which various groups co-ordinate and that will be continuing and strengthening, with encouragement from elected Wiltshire Council specialists - helping to keep everyone informed, and to help with joined up promotions, and joined up transport planning. Where appropriate, we can provide some assistance from within our developing resources on elements such as buses and multimode connections.

On the TransWilts CPR side, 2014 was the year of big growth and we're not going to see anything like that same growth again in 2015. But then we already have trains full and standing on most weekdays and many Saturdays and in the first year we achieved 150% of our third year target (target, you will note - not estimate.  We always know we could do well).  For 2015, we're concentrating on retaining the customers gained during 2014, and growing the leisure traffic using services that still have lots of space.  Undoubtedly it will be a challenge, with daily disruption from 18th July to 31st August while Box tunnel on the main Chippenham - Bath line is closed, but that will also give us opportunities on at least some days for direct trips that are not normally possible, but other days when many if not all trains are replaced by buses.   

It's also good to hear of plans to recast the Sunday service from May; for the initial trial the extra services were merely shoe-horned into the existing availability and that worked well (with a few little exceptions) on Monday to Friday, reasonably on Saturday, and created a really irregular service on Sunday afternoons.  By sorting this Sunday issue out, and by linking the TransWilts on beyond Westbury, the timetable planners and their masters are not only enhancing the service at no extra train cost, but also showing faith in the services from within the trial carrying on beyond December 2016.

Come March, we may here details of a new franchise from September.  Come May, we may have a new government. Come September, we'll have a new franchise - or perhaps even some other new arrangement if there's a big change to a new setup who prioritse changing rail. Come the end of 2016, we certainly need somthing in place to take the TransWilts service beyond December 2016 when the trial service has run its course, and we're certain to have major changes when electric trains are running to and through Swindon from 2017.  The new structure of the TransWilts CIC, and the TransWilts CPR division, sets us up will for these interesting times - having regained an appropriate service to retain that appropriate services, and the prublic transport network they're a part of, into the future for the benefit of passengers, the rail operators, local government and the economy and quality of life of the area.