Some thoughts on the shape of future franchises serving the South West

[whole diary]

[grahame]

What shape should the future franchise maps be for Great Western and for Cross Country - looking ahead to the next decade? 

The question was raised at yesterday's pre-consultation meeting hosted by TravelWatch SouthWeest in Taunton; as a meeting of many local group representatives and knowledgeable local council officers, the group was exceptionally well and informed about current setups and what might practically be achieved in the future.

On Great Western, concensus was that the basic map is a good one, with massive changes not sought. A show of hands around the room brough a near-unanimous vote (I didn't spot anyone voting against) to retain Devon and Cornwall local services in the franchise rather than wanting a separate franchise. Possible map extensions for new lines during the next decade might include Portishead and Tavistock; other possible extensions raised could be to Okehampton on a daily basic, and from Southampton Central via the airport and Eastleigh to Romsey.  Not mentioned (I am adding ...) ... I would not be surprised to see the Summer Saturday extension from Carmarthen to Pembroke Dock being dropped - for one thing due to the practical issues of gauging the line beyond Whitland for the longer carriages of the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.).  And the question was asked (but see later in this post) about the transfer of Cardiff - Portsmouth to (a revised ?) Cross Country; Brighton services were not mentioned but it would be logical to transfer them too in my view if the Portsmouths went over.

Minimum frequency should be hourly on virtually all services - certainly those in the core of the network.  Exceptions perhaps for Rhubarb loop and more remote terminii such as Carmarthen and Brighton where current services fall a long way short even of a GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) train every 2 hours.

On Cross Country, concensus was that a major update should be considered, starting from the question "what is the purpose of the Cross Country franchise?"

A look at the current Cross Country network

Cross Country was originally formulated as a big "X" for long distance journeys avoiding London , with the centre of the "X" at Birmingham New Street.   Trains from the south west peninsular and from places such as Brighton and Dover Marine to the south all passed through Birmingham before carrying on to Liverpool, Manchester, and via Carlisle to Scotland on the north west side, and via York and Newcastle to Scotland on the north east side. Scottish services reached (and still do) beyond the lowland belt right up to Aberdeen.

The Scotland to the South West and Scotland to the South East markets have shrunk with the coming of low cost (budget) airlines, and Cross Country's trains have developed major new markets in regional travel - so much so that on certain parts of their routes, the trains are filled to capacity and beyond.  The trains have become very much the main arteries to convey passengers across some of the spokes of main lines that radiate from London - examples being Taunton to Bristol, Cheltenham to Birmingham, and Birmingham to Leeds on our Cross Country route.  They have also become key providers at certain stations providing most of the trains or filling in significant gaps within the regional franchise - stations which would be very much the poorer if these trains did not run include places as diverse as Cheltenham Spa and Burton-on-Trent, Dunbar (8 of 12 southbound departures per day are XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise))), Alnmouth and Hayle. And other hanker after their provision to fill current holes in their service - Ivybridge and Ashchurch are two in the South West that were mentioned yesterday as being stations which are being held back by lack of calls in trains that pass through.

With very long distance services providing this regional connectivity, reliability is made very difficult to achieve. A delay at Dundee caused by a drunken passenger can mean services are late at Lostwithiel - and later in the day that means that the homeward local journey within the south west peninsular is disrupted by events 6 to 8 hours earlier in another country!

Another issue that results from these very long distance services meeting the regional (and in some cases local) travel needs is the need for differing capacity along the way.  Richard Gibson of Cross Country presented at the TravelWatch meeting before last, explaining this problem.   His promised slide set never reached me, but I seem to recall it being along the lines that the 4 coach 08:20 Aberdeen to Penzance (scheduled 21:43 arrival) only had one seat in five at an average point in its journey, so when it left Bristol at a quarter to 6, crush loaded as far as Taunton, that was just tough as the franchise couldn't justify using a longer train for the service.

The Cross Country franchise has also grown over the years with the growth of the extra southbound leg from Birminghan via Oxford, Reading and Southampton to Bournemouth, and with the addition of Cardiff to Stanstead via Birmingham, Leicester and Cambridge, making it more of a star than a cross. And that latter service includes stations such as Hinckley where there are very few trains indeed from other franchises.  Services have been lost too - Liverpool, the North West beyond Manchester, the South East (one vestigial train a day remains beyond Reading as far as Guildford). At the current time, the Torbay area with strong leisure traffic to and from the Midlands and the Potteries fears a service reduction which is being "consulted on" - a fear that concerns expressed won't result in much being retained, and the only service from Bath is under threat - it's not even shown on the Cross Country map we were provided with the other day.

Before looking forward to if and how the services in the current Cross Country franchise should be provided in the future, we should consider a little more whether those current services are optimally developed.  In this consideration, I note:
* There is a widespread view that the current trains are unfit for very long distance journeys
* There is a widespread dislike of seat reservations that can be change a seat from "available" to "reserved" during a journey, meaning that someone who's settled into their seat for the day can be "booted out" along the way.
* There is a widespread view that the prices for longer journeys are too high to compete with airlines, or indeed "via London" alternatives.
* There is a widespread view that catering is inadequate for long journeys
* Current trains are unfit for consistent daily service to the required 99% level south of Exeter
* There may be little incentive to the operator to build long distance traffic as trains are already full with regional traffic.

Any changes to Cross Country will not be in isolation from other developements, and future visions should look to the coming of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)), where a connection at Old Oak may be an attractive route to the north from the South East, Southern England and even the South West. Consideration should also be given to changing leisure / holiday patterns, with the (as yet unquantified) effects of Brexit in bring in in tourists should the currency decline, and a potential re-emergence of "staycations" where people remain in their own country.   Working days move somewhat away from a standard Monday to Friday, 9 to 5 with a growing need for 7 day all day (and evening) service.  Housing develops where there are good rail links and rail links may be needed where housing develops.

It should also be noted that the division of regional and long distance traffic to separate operations could result in reduced loadings all around ... that some apparent "solutions" may not be solutions.

A suggested remapping of services

Options along these lines ... services involved might include

a) Regular services from the South West and South Coast via Birmingham, as far north as Liverpool / Manchester / Leeds (York? Hull?), with a potential to add in stops / extenions that are logical for a regional service. Ashchurch, Bridgwater, Torbay, Weston-super-Mare and Ivybridge were mentioned as examples to consider

b) Extension of successful TransPennine Express services north from Newcastle, and to connect with the new Cross Country service

c) A handful of true long distance expresses - no more than 2 or 3 a day, limited stop and NOT providing any main regional services.

d) Cardiff - Birmingham - Nottingham and Birmingham - Stanstead logically fall into this franchise. Perhaps Cardiff to Manchester via Shrewsbury and Crewe does too?

e) There is logic for Brighton to Bristol and beyond services also to be a part of this franchise, and if that were to be done then there might be a logical question relating to the operation of Cardiff - Portsmouth, but there's no suggestion of any major changes to that service.

f) Once trains are operating from Oxford to Bletchley and Bedford (and perhaps beyond) there is logic of the East-West services which bring that traffic west in to Oxford and continue with it further west to be part of this franchise, isn't there?

How and who would operate those remapped services?

There is logic for the regional services to be operated through a franchise operating within the region or by a co-operative of operators at the ends of the route. The theory of competition may work well on a 4 track line, but it becomes less so on a two track setup where operator need to have a similar service pattern to mesh, and even less so on single track lines.  But then there is also logic for there to be a "TPE^▸ (Trans Pennine Express) South" type operations

The current 4 and 5 car class "voyager" trains are suitable for the regional work; services that continue north of Birmingham will logically run with bimodes, and the logic there may be class 802 - but that's an operational detail perhaps left until after principles are agreed.

These are pure discussions / ideas.  And this was only one of ten topic we looked at yesterday ... I may write further (if encouraged by responses comments and thoughts rather than a stunned silence!)

Edit to add - East / West - which my spell checker didn't notice I had left out ;-)

[CyclingSid]

Some comments, largely from a position of ignorance in terms of franchises etc.

What is the possibillity of some rationalisation when GW^▸ (Great Western) and SW have elements of a common franchise owner (probably could be put better)? Already hinted at is the potential Oxford to Gatwick service, badged as what? Possibly something similar touching Reading - Basingstoke and beyond, but that comes to the Cross Country question. I find the Reading - Southampton/Bournemouth service must useful, but sometimes frustrating because of capacity which was commented on in general.

Previous discussion on the forum mentioned the old Brighton - Plymouth service,would this be viable (possibly seasonaly), and if so which franchise; SW GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway), XCT? Can't be any more or less viable than the service I sometime notice at Southampton; Southampton to Malvern taking over three hours. Probably the service I saw a tourist being bounced for on XCT Southampton  - Reading, more comfortable seats but the guard charged her £120 for the privilege of going via Reading. We know how to grow the tourist industry. Similarly this last Saturday, a Frenchman on the same train with a GW reservation (for a bike). Guard let him off, but Frenchman couldn't get his head around the fact there was more than one train company.

[grahame]

Southampton to Malvern taking over three hours. Probably the service I saw a tourist being bounced for on XCT Southampton  - Reading, more comfortable seats but the guard charged her £120 for the privilege of going via Reading. We know how to grow the tourist industry. Similarly this last Saturday, a Frenchman on the same train with a GW^▸ (Great Western) reservation (for a bike). Guard let him off, but Frenchman couldn't get his head around the fact there was more than one train company.

I am going to consolidate the "possible mapping" items in with the matrix later - hopefully get more comment, CyclingSid.

Your comments about the way we treat our visitors - I couldn't agree more.  And when the law abiding majority get to understand a little more of the system, one problem is replaced by another. 

I had a guest last week who bought himself two singles because he didn't realise that returns have different periods.  He paid 2 x £53 when he only needed to pay £54 once.  Then yesterday I was chatting with a lady on an anytime return. "Why anytime?" I asked.  "Because I don't really understand what off peak means and didn't want to risk it".  And this was a lady who had booked online,  had to go to a different station to the one she was staring from to collect the ticket (no TVM^▸ (Ticket Vending Machine) at her staring point), found the ticket office closed even though she was within online opening hours, and had to go to a third station to collect.  Tragedy was she could have bought, and paid less, getting on the train unticketed (no TVM or office at Hayle) and telling the train manager about her journey to establish the best fare.

[ChrisB]

In response to grahame's piece above

You need to write in a style that suggests that these notes are your thoughts/ideas rather than appear to be tye considered agreed opinions tof this meeting. The notes on GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) are certainly a lot closer to what the meeting agreed - the Crosscountry opinion above is more your own thoughts than that agreed upon by the meeting (as I noted in a thread you started yesterday, a lot of opinions were expressed but little was concurred on by (mainly around stock suitability & catering only).

I hope that TWSW^» (TravelWatch SouthWest - website) don't use your notes as a basis for a submission to DfT^» (Department for Transport - about), but maybe as a further round of consultation. It will be interesting to see the report to be produced at around the time of the October TWSW general meeting as no majority view was even close to being agreed

[paul7575]

What is the possibillity of some rationalisation when GW^▸ (Great Western) and SW have elements of a common franchise owner (probably could be put better)?

Incredibly low probability.   To all intents and purposes the two franchises have to remain completely separate.  Any changes would need to be DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) driven, I suspect, and you have to consider that next time the GW franchise is re-let they might have to un-rationalise it back...

Southern, Southeastern (and to a lesser extent on WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line)(S) London Midland) have had the same owners for years with no obvious rationalisation happening.

Paul

[stuving]

What is the possibillity of some rationalisation when GW^▸ (Great Western) and SW have elements of a common franchise owner (probably could be put better)?

Incredibly low probability.   To all intents and purposes the two franchises have to remain completely separate.  Any changes would need to be DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) driven, I suspect, and you have to consider that next time the GW franchise is re-let they might have to un-rationalise it back...

Southern, Southeastern (and to a lesser extent on WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line)(S) London Midland) have had the same owners for years with no obvious rationalisation happening.

Paul

Indeed, and to pass the kind of tests the CMA set for not being monopolistic they all have to swear on a bucket of their own blood they wont exchange so much as a Christmas card with other bits of their own companies.

[grahame]

In response to ChrisB's answer above ...

from my original post

These are pure discussions / ideas

and

Options along these lines ... services involved might include

And in what I wrote lots of other uses of "may", "might", "fear that", "examples to consider", "in my view", "perhaps", "should be considered" and "thoughts".  Hardly the works of saying "it should be done xxxxx way".

Where my post is definite, is on current and historic fact that I've attempted to confirm. For example 8 out of 12 services that head south after leaving Dunbar are provided by Cross Country (Monday to Friday data), that Liverpool was originally one of their destinations, that there is an ongoing exercise that may result in loss of all but one weekday services operated by Cross Country from Torbay which is causing consternation. By all means correct me on any of these facts I have wrong!

Yes - there were lots of ideas raised and I have shared many of them here - probably so many that all together they would end up being too radical.

I'm happy to re-confirm for you and other readers, ChrisB, that "These are pure discussions / ideas" which I hope will "encourage responses".   

The route forward at TWSW^» (TravelWatch SouthWest - website), as stated at the end of the meeting, is that Chris Irwin - well experienced in these matters - is   drafting a report which will be circulated to parties who were at the meeting, including yourself, ChrisB (and myself too) for further tuning. A good call on your part to have me clarify that in public.  Responses to this thread will help inform me of what I should be writing to Chris at that time, and hopefully will help inform you too in what you write as a passenger representative from another area.

[paul7575]

What shape should the future franchise maps be for Great Western and for Cross Country - looking ahead to the next decade? 

The Cross Country franchise has also grown over the years with the growth of the extra southbound leg from Birminghan via Oxford, Reading and Southampton to Bournemouth,

I'm a little puzzled by this appraisal. Growth of passengers perhaps, but until the addition of the 2 hourly Reading to Southampton extensions I'm pretty sure the Birmingham to Bournemouth (originally Poole) leg has always been hourly since Virgin took over at privatisation.   What changed with the fairly major 2007/8 ish alterations to service patterns is that Bournemouths nearly all became standardised across Birmingham to Manchester Picc, previously a good number of ex-Bournemouths went through to Scotland via both ECML^▸ (East Coast Main Line) and WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line), or to the North East.

I thought that the earlier abandoned services to other more "southeastern" destinations via Reading and Guildford (e.g. to Portsmouth) or via the GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) and Kensington Olympia e.g. to Gatwick or Brighton were basically all cut back gradually to Reading, but Bournemouth's hourly trains didn't vary.    Of course that single Guildford starter and return per day is assumed to be ending this December anyway, with GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) supposed to be taking up the slack...

Paul

[grahame]

What shape should the future franchise maps be for Great Western and for Cross Country - looking ahead to the next decade? 

The Cross Country franchise has also grown over the years with the growth of the extra southbound leg from Birminghan via Oxford, Reading and Southampton to Bournemouth,

I'm a little puzzled by this appraisal.

Ah - noted, Paul.   I was thinking of cross country franchises since privatisation rather than just the current Arriva one - wonders what a missing "s" can do to the sense!     I recall back to Poole to Liverpool twice a day and Poole to York once a day - and here we are today with two trains an hour for the most part, all be they Bournemouth rather than Poole.

[ChrisB]

There halso has been no extra southbound leg to Bournemouth.

As Paul correctly states, there has always been 2tph beyond Reading, bith at the start & now. There indeed was a short period of time where one terminated Reading, but has been extended again south to at least Southampton. But it isn't extra, reinstated perhaps