Crystal ball - will coronavirus effect our travel (public and private)?

[whole diary]

[grahame]

* From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page)

Fears are growing that the coronavirus outbreak could reach pandemic scale as more cases emerge around the world.

Most infections are in China but other nations like South Korea, Italy and Iran are battling the virus, which causes respiratory disease Covid-19.

[snip]

The proportion of infected patients dying from Covid-19 appears to be between 1% and 2%, although the World Health Organization (WHO) cautions that the mortality rate is not known yet.

* From the Association of British Commuters

Corona virus advice is to wash your hands. At West Croydon station there is no hot water and a rat infestation!!!

Is it ever safe to travel on the railway?

* From a discussion I was having earlier ... with someone who's got a degree in epidemiology - though with a very different career - I came away rather confirmed in the view that there is a probability of a pandemic - of the virus speading far and wide so that it's won't be significantly limited to areas or enclaves.  Of those dying, typically they're the people with the weaker immune systems so biased towards the old and the young but some middle age infected. Quarantine and other measures can and will reduce and slow the spread; to reduce worldwide casualty numbers, there's a race a against time to develop, and then to manufacture in quantity, more effective ways of treating the virus, and also to immunise against it and prevent it spreading.


I was criticized the other day for starting a thread about a Carbon Friendly / Climate Change event to be held later this week. Perhaps this thread will get a similar critical kick.  Fair enough - it hasn't effected travel within the UK^▸ (United Kingdom). Yet. But I suspect it might. And it might do so to a devastating extent.


How close is it?  From Wikipedia

Six degrees of separation is the idea that all people are six, or fewer, social connections away from each other. Also known as the 6 Handshakes rule. As a result, a chain of "a friend of a friend" statements can be made to connect any two people in a maximum of six steps.

I'm already half way - three steps away. The bus conference in London a couple of weeks back was attended by someone in from China who had been exposed. Attendees at that conference were advised about a week later to take prcautions including reducing their attendance at other events - the two MPs^▸ (Member of Parliament, or Mile Post (a method of measuring the railway in miles and chains from a starting point - usually London), depending on context) went so far as to quarantine themselves. But during that latency week, those who were there had carried on their regular run of meetings, and even after the notice there were some who took a different view to the advise.

It's over the magic fortnight now - and I understand it, that makes it "all clear" this time around. It was never more that a long shot that it would be at that meeting and get out, but with enough long shots ...

[ChrisB]

Don't panic Mr Mainwaring jumps to mind.

13 cases so far, only 4 now still live (the four from the cruise ship that have just returned on Saturday)....and over 6,000 tested. Wha? which of these 13 do they think they came into contact with?

[johnneyw]

Perhaps I've got this wrong but the subject of Coronavirus was brought up on a local radio program more than a week ago and the doctor being interviewed pointed out that, given any influenza outbreak in this country, which is not that unusual, there are hundreds, if not thousands of resulting deaths which don't grab these sort of headlines.
What is more, the fatalities are broadly speaking from the same cross section as with the current virus, i.e. those that have become frailer than most through age or some pre existing medical condition.
Of course, that sort of stuff won't sell so many newspapers.
   

[Adrian]

The difference with flu is that there is a fair amount of immunity to that in the population, so it passes a lot of people by.  Coronavirus allowed to spread unchecked would presumably infect the majority.  If it spreads far and wide there is also an increased risk of it mutating into something even worse.  It's absolutely right to take coronavirus very seriously.

[ellendune]

The difference with flu is that there is a fair amount of immunity to that in the population, so it passes a lot of people by.  Coronavirus allowed to spread unchecked would presumably infect the majority.  If it spreads far and wide there is also an increased risk of it mutating into something even worse.  It's absolutely right to take coronavirus very seriously.

The difference is that there is no vaccine (yet) and so the old and others with weakened immune systems cannot be protected.  Rate of deaths my be around 1% but, by way of an example, it is estimated to be 7% for diabetics. 

[JayMac]

Rate of deaths my be around 1% but, by way of an example, it is estimated to be 7% for diabetics. 

That's me (with Type 2) worried now.

[LiskeardRich]

My barber raised an interesting theory last week. Why aren’t they being totally open about this condition? When it’s killing nowhere near as many people as traditional flu strains, why don’t we quarantine flu.
His theory was it started by some kind of chemical incident, and that is being covered up to avoid something

[TaplowGreen]

My barber raised an interesting theory last week. Why aren’t they being totally open about this condition? When it’s killing nowhere near as many people as traditional flu strains, why don’t we quarantine flu.
His theory was it started by some kind of chemical incident, and that is being covered up to avoid something

Were you having your highlights done? May explain the tinfoil hat! 

[CyclingSid]

On the assumption that Covid-19 is not only a serious risk for people with pre-existing conditions, but also the older generation, is there a contingency plan for the Coffee Shop?

Might be worth looking at the following book:
https://profilebooks.com/the-rules-of-contagion.html
part of the Wellcome Collection, so should have reasonable medical basis. The author is at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Book covers not only medical contagion, but also crime, internet viruses etc.

[PhilWakely]

Don't panic Mr Mainwaring jumps to mind.

13 cases so far, only 4 now still live (the four from the cruise ship that have just returned on Saturday)....

An unfortunate turn of phrase (if said with a soft i) 

I was on a rammed train yesterday morning, stood in the vestibule with 9 others, between Pinhoe and Exeter Central. Something tickled my nose and I sneezed. A woman stood nearby suggested I got tested for coronavirus, suggesting I head straight for A&E!

[grahame]

On the assumption that Covid-19 is not only a serious risk for people with pre-existing conditions, but also the older generation, is there a contingency plan for the Coffee Shop?

It has not been overlooked; such issue goes far beyond just the current threat (or not) from this virus. 

Moderator's, Admins type topic - perhaps best expanded in "How Stuff Works" for Transport Scholars ( http://www.passenger.chat/b41 ) or on 4th April at the AGM^▸ (Annual General Meeting);  I will suggest a few minutes on the agenda to explain with slides online thereafter.

[CyclingSid]

A woman stood nearby suggested I got tested for coronavirus, suggesting I head straight for A&E!

DON'T head for A&E, ring 111. They will arrange testing, if necessary.

[bobm]

One thing it has affected is the new illuminated poster boards at TransWilts stations.   The solar cells are made in China and the factory has been shut for a month.

[Clan Line]

Of course, that sort of stuff won't sell so many newspapers.
   

....... and it's giving Laura Kuenssberg a chance to get her breath back.................

[johnneyw]

Rate of deaths my be around 1% but, by way of an example, it is estimated to be 7% for diabetics. 

That's me (with Type 2) worried now.

But remember it's heavily weighted against those much older than you, even with middle age on the horizon.