Free travel on the Bicester branch this bank holiday weekend

[whole diary]

[gwr2006]

...now other parts of Evergreen 3 have been shelved...

When did this happen? On their website, it says nothing about this.

...and rolling stock is still up in the air...

Chiltern have already ordered 172 units for extra capacity. One assumes that they'll just boost the order quantity if the work is given the go ahead. The rest of the 168 fleet are getting power upgrades to match the acceleration of the 172s anyway.

And you're missing a key point - all the Turbos are used! (and the FGW^▸ (First Great Western) ones) So unless Chiltern get other old stock from elsewhere (unlikely, as it'll need ATP^▸ (Automatic Train Protection) etc.) it will be new build - i.e. 172s = Clubmans.

Evergreen 3 consisted of three parts but the new engines and gearboxes in the 168 fleet are not going to happen now as the return on the investment was found to be too low.  It means they will probably stay on the main line Marylebone-Birmingham services where they can accelerate and then use their top speed for the longer non-stop distances.

The new Oxford service will be using existing rolling stock and Chiltern said at the recent exhibitions that they will not be buying new trains to use on it. So, lets assume the 100mph top speed of the 168s will be needed on the main line. After all, Evergreen 3 is mainly about reducing the journey time to Birmingham. That means 165's or something else for the Oxford trains...plenty of rumours going around about top'n'tailed coaches at the moment but that will destroy the planned journey times making the route much less attractive than going to Paddington.

[gwr2006]

PS: Chiltern Evergreen is fully funded (according to the FAQs^▸ (Frequently Asked Questions) on their website).

So unless costs spiral out of control, I can't see any plans being shelved. Chiltern have completed 2 such projects on time and on budget already.

Actually not.  Evergreen 3 will be funded by Network Rail (as they did the ^60 million for Evergreen 1) and Chiltern have said they will repay the investment through higher track access charges (as they did for Evergreen 1) but, of course, that only applies for so long as they have the franchise. If they deliver Evergreen 3 the franchise will expire in 2022 (i.e. after 20-years) but the repayments will need to continue for much longer than that.

That means the Department for Transport has to underwrite the cost of Evergreen 3 as the subsequent franchise will be expected to continue paying back Network Rail, and that could mean a need for a higher subsidy or a lower premium payment - both of which would concern DfT^» (Department for Transport - about). Chiltern have to convince Network Rail and DfT and get agreement on funding by 1st December this year.  Whilst Chiltern can say they have the funding for the scheme what they actually mean is the repayments for the rest of the franchise.

[Btline]

Interesting...

But I can't see their current fleet being able to cope with 2 tph^▸ (trains per hour) to Oxford. Even with the new 172 order displacing some units around London.

Hmm, I think Chiltern will need LM^▸ (London Midland - recent franchise)'s magic wand...

[paul7575]

There is one major difference with the way Evergreen is/has been funded though, compared to normal NR^» (Network Rail - home page) projects. It is a Design Build Finance and Transfer (DBFT) financing model, so NR effectively buy the completed improvements from the contractor, at a price confirmed before the project starts.

This means that although NR (with DfT^» (Department for Transport - about)'s approval) agree to pay for the project, this doesn't happen until after it is finished, so any overruns and expensive variations are Chiltern's contracted builder's problem, not NR's.

Paul