The Department for Transport publishes an annula survey of transport trends.  Here's the figures published today (15 Feb 2007) dated 2006 and using 2005 as "last year".

The Government has a target to reduce overcrowding on London commuter services by 2010.  Overcrowding during the morning and evening peaks is monitored, in terms of Passengers In  Excess of Capacity (PIXC). This is the proportion of passengers on trains in excess of the seat  capacity for longer distance services, and with an allowance for standing passengers on shorter  journeys of less than 20 minutes. There are limits on the level of acceptable PIXC at 4.5 per cent  on one peak and 3.0 per cent across both peaks. The train operating companies conduct an      annual autumn count.

The PIXC measure fell in the early 1990s but increased from 1996, particularly in the morning  peak. In 2000 and 2001, the am peak figure exceeded 4.5 per cent but has since fallen. In 2005,   the excess was 4.0 in the morning peak and 1.6 in the evening peak - an average of 2.9 across  both peaks. The greatest overcrowding occurs in the morning peaks, and the highest levels of  overcrowding in 2005 were in trains by South West Trains at 6.2 per cent, First Great Western  Link and Thameslink, both at 5.6 per cent. Silverlink trains in the evening peak were at a level  of 5.8 per cent.  Last year, Southern had the highest level over overcrowding at 7.8 per cent in  the morning peak.

The average age of rail rolling stock is seen as an indicator of safety, reliability and comfort. Since 2000/01 the average age of national rail rolling stock has fallen steadily for long distance operators. For operators in London and the South East there was a gradual fall between 2000/01 and 2003/04, followed by a fall of about 20 per cent in each of 2004/05 and  2005/06. The average age for regional operators has shown little change.

DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) Transport trends - published today. My highlighting.

I understand that the FGW^▸ (First Great Western) long distance fleet is the oldest in the country with an average age of around 25 years.  Some new trains (the Adalente units) were obtained a whil eback, but these are to be returned in December.  There are no plans to replace the trains in the next 10 years.   It follows that the fleet on FGW will on average get 1 year older each year until 2016, after a substantially higher average aging this year.

I take it, then, that the DfT expects service to get less safe, less comfortable and less reliable? (But gosh I do like the 125s!)

Industry insiders have commented that they would be worried if this work was NOT being done as it would be leading to a running down of the line and making for less future reliability and a worse medium term prognosis.

There seems to be a lot of this around at the moment.  What's going on?

1. Are the operations staff more prone to be sick at the moment because, let's face it, it can't be fun having less happy passengers complaining at worse timetables, higher fares and unreliable services?

2. There are fewer relief staff available to cover for sickness - services are being run without the backup that was previosuly available to render them reliable?

3. Is it simply that we're seeing these report more in the electronic age and there were always issues such as this and at the same level too?

4. Are safety or operations practices leading to a less reliable service (I saw a quote - NOT St Ives - about a service that was delayed due to staff no longer staying away at the far end of a line overnight, and then having taxi problems getting to the train left unattended to start it up in the early hours)

The movement from a long distance railway company, operating services which a huge number of people use very occasionally, into a company that gets a steadily higher proportion of its income from medium distance passengers - commuters from Newbury, Swindon, even Bristol into London has lead to the use of carriages which have more seats each (and also more room for standing) and also the withdrawal of buffet car facilities.   So we see an increase in seats but a decrease in carriages, and a decrease in the space and comfort and facilities offered to each passenger.

Dawn, I hope the return train was on time too (or do you train / bus home?) and you got back to enjoy a nice Valentine's evening.

Let's see if we can keep up the pressure and see if we can make the shocking state of affairs of a train running on time into normallity 

From an answer I have just written to someone about the service cuts / current level and how it came about ...


Official Answer:

"Trains were lightly used".   Doesn't hold water due to growth rates of between 8% and 35% per annum depending on measure taken, but decisions for 2007 were based on 2002 usage figures with an assumption of 0.8% growth.

Some Unofficial Answers:

1. A short train of slower stock carrying passengers at 20p per mile is s nuisance on the mainline from Chippenham to Swindon where it can get in the way of 7 / 8 car High Speed Train (HST^▸ (High Speed Train))s carrying passengers at over 50p per mile and delay them.  If an High Speed Train (HST) if running late but the slower train is on time, it can delay the High Speed Train (HST) further and cause a penalty for the TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company). Evidence includes the fact that the first train of the day off Swindon is at 06:19 - before the first High Speed Train (HST) from London.

2. The single track line from Thingley to Bradford South provides part of the only useful route for freight from Southampton to the Midlands and North that avoids Reading and Bristol bottlenecks. It is shown as "high growth" in railway plans and that could lead to a capactity issue. Best get rid of the "TransWilts" service now before it gets too busy.

3. When the franchise was awarded, FGW^▸ (First Great Western) / the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) were looking to the local county council to "play ball" and provide some subsidy, but the county council pleaded poverty and the service was lost due to a lack of agreement

4. First also run buses along the Chippenham - Trowbridge stretch, and end to end passengers can also make the journey with a dogleg change at Bath. Both options are much slower and inconvenient, but users without their own transport are forced to use them.The bus from Melksham to Chippenham actually costs more than the train.  Until last April, different operators were involved.

5. The line does not link Labour / marginal consituencies. It's Labour at one end, but the rest is all Blue and Yellow and those are the areas the majority of the passengers come from. So there's no "political will" to provide.  And the people of Wiltshire are a quiet bunch who accept what's thrust upon them with little objection.

6. The service doesn't start from / end in London, nor do the majority of users connect in or out of London services. And Wiltshire, to London based officials, is sometimes just a county of green fields they pass through on their way to the South West. They would personally have little cause to travel between Wiltshire's five largest population centres, all of which are served by the line.


We did wonder.  The remaining timings are a useless combination for any of the regular traffic flows - if the service is right for someone at one end of the day, the return train some 12 hours later is just too far separated from it - people don't work / shop / go to college for THAT long.

However, I received an email in the last few days from the Department for Transport that says "We need to put the 'closure by stealth' concept to one side, as it is self-seeding and insidious in its effect.  I would like to be absolutely clear that there is no conspiracy going on here.  Closure of the Melksham line, whether by stealth or otherwise, is not on the agenda". I'm personally of the opinion that a discussion of the options IS healthy, and looking at a worstcase scenario is a useful exercise in helping to remind us what may happen if we don't react what appears to be an ill-fitted and limited current (and I hope temporary) timetable.


Edit: VickiS - Clarifying Acronyms

High Speed Services -
From tonight's bulletin:

1548 Paddington to Cheltenham Spa will not call at Reading or Didcot Parkway.
1630 Bristol TM^‡(resolve) to Paddington will not call at Didcot Parkway or Reading.

We apologise for these alterations which are due to mechanical problems.

Odd one - why could this be?    Could it be because one of the two power cars is dead and they're skipping station stops to ensure they're on time at destination?

invite letter

I am writing to invite you to attend a meeting on the evening of Monday, 5th March to focus community support onto the "TransWilts" railway line that links Swindon, via Chippenham, Melksham and Trowbridge to Westbury, Dilton Marsh, Warminster and Salisbury.  Formal invites are going out to many organiations involved, but additionally I'm inviting current, past,and potential future users and other interested parties too - this meeting and stong support COULD MAKE A REAL DIFFERENCE.

The use of train service linking these towns - including the five largest towns in Wiltshire - grew dramatically up to last December; growth rates of between 8% and 35% per annum are quoted for the five years up to that point, and a service that was very quiet five years ago had become pretty busy by last autumn.  But the service was cut back in December to just two trains a day, running at times that are inappropriate for the main traffic flows.  The reasons given are poor economic value, but arguments from various parties to the decision were based on older (so lower) usage figures, and consultant's reports that assumed a growth rate of just 0.8% per annum.

I have various indications that the service provision is now being reconsidered much more throughly and constructively, with what I believe to be a better chance than at any point previously of us securing an appropriate service to meet customer needs.  But we're still not out of the woods - we need a community push to ensure that the optimism isn't stillborn, and that a service - when provided - is well advertised and supported by the community.  With the Regional Spatial Strategy proposing a high growth rate all the way from Swindon to West Wiltshire, increasing conjestion on the A350 and other roads in the area, and strong traffic flows between the towns in the county, a two hourly service starting later this year makes sense.

The meeting will start at 19:30 (arrive earlier for coffee) at Well House Manor, 48 Spa Road, Melksham SN12 7NY on Monday, 5th March.  If you are unable to attend personally, please nominate an appropriate council member or officer to attend in your place.  You are also welcome to pass this on to other parties and invitethem to attend on a less formal basis.

So that I can plan the meeting, I WOULD like some idea of numbers - it would be much appreciatiated if you can RSVP.

I look forward to seeing you at the start of next month

This is a special meeting organised by "Save the Train".  We have been campaiging for an appropriate train service for West Wiltshire to Swindon, and from Swindon and Chippenham to Trowbridge, Warminster and Salisbury, for 18 months.

A petition to the Prime Minister, which has just closed, drew nearly 1700 signatures including 8 Members of Parliament, 5 MEPs^▸ (Member of European Parliament) and many councillors, and became the top domestic public transport petition on the PM's web site (8th out of over 400 on transportation and infrasturcture).  That's very respectable for a locally based petiton with no formal organisation that ran for just three weeks.

The petition and the wider campaign has received good press exposure - a half page in the Sunday Express, a shorter piece in the Daily Telegraph, and an article in the Metro which actually reprinted the current minimalist timetable.  An item on HTV West showed just how poor by comparison the bus alternative is from Melksham to Swindon, with me taking well over an hour to make a journey that would have taken less than 30 minutes by train, and pieces on "You and Yours" and "Westminster Hour" on Radio 4 should be noted.  And those appearances are in addition to enormous local support from newspapers and radio stations in the area.

At Westminster, Ann Snelgrove, James Gray, Michael Ancram and Andrew Murrison - that's all the MPs^▸ (Member of Parliament) for the Swindon - Westbury section - stood up and spoke in favour of an appropriate service during a debate, and Robert Key and Sandra Gidley, MPs for the extension to Salisbury and on to Romsey, have also signed up.

We have received overwhelming encouragement from other organisations at a local and regional level, and we now hear reports of much more serious discussions involving the Department for Transport and the First Group amongst others.  Communications from both organisations within the last few days indicate a door that is pushed far more open to our proposals that at any time previously, with serious attention being given to both the financing and the timetabling of the new service.  And these are THE two key players.

"Save the Train" - TransWilts Train service between the major population centres of Wiltshire.

5th March 2007, at Well House Manor, 48 Spa Road, Melksham SN12 7NY.

19:00 (tea and coffee) for 19:30. We will meet attendees off the 19:08 train at Melksham, and ensure that everyone gets home afterwards.

Draft Agenda:

1. Welcome

2. Where are we now?

3. How can we get an appropriate service returned?
   (If we get good news later this month, we may be able to skip)

4. Community support to build, sell and retain the new service.
   What do we need to do?

5. Action plan - who, how, mechanisms.

6. Conclusion

It is anticipated that the meeting will close at around 21:30.

Contact - myself (graham@wellho.net)

I'm delighted to appoint Lee as a Global Moderator on this forum.

Very occasionally, there's a need for someone to "jump in" ... for example to remove posts which are off topic (e.g. advertising erotic material) or to help calm down an argument or remove the sounce code of a virus.  Actually, none of these has appeared on firstgreatwestern.info yet, so Lee's life might by quiet for a while ... but if you spot anything that you feel needs attention, let him, or me, or Nick know.

Lee - great to have you on board.

Good to see you here, Graham / Graz.    I've set up this board in addition to "Save the Train" as I've had requests from users of other lines for me to host a forum " like ...." and, after thinking it through - yes, it's a good idea.

The effect of issues is very different on your journey (where ovecrowding is nor rife, I understand) and my journeys and those of my clients, who used to use the train to Melksham (40% of them anyway) but have now migrated away to other means of transport to get here.  But the route cause of the malaise is the same - a contract between the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) and First, and the goals of both organisations who are parties in that  contract, which between them seem to give scant consideration to the customer's travel needs.

Do you feel like telling other people on your commute about this board    ... it's newly set up, and we don't have the marketing budget nor the team of press people that First have - but we do know we're on to something.  1700 names on that petition rather confirms it ...

On the government's figures ....

48% of journeys are made with season tickets or TravelCards.
50% of journeys are made with tickets purchased at the time of travel.
2% of journeys are made on advanced purchase tickets.

The "purchase at time of travel" category includes cheap day returns, saver tickets and full fare payers.

So if a train company were to remove the cheapest of it's special "walk up" fares and put restrictions on many of the others so that they were less used,  they would be significantly increasing their income.  If they offered a lot of new Advanced Purchase options at the same time, though, that would result only in a slight loss of revenue from that action.

In other word, a train company can significantly alter its balance sheet, at the expense of its passengers, by switching from Supersavers and other deals of that type to the advanced purchase tickets that I'm offered these days in profusion when I call up a timetable ... but which I cannot take advantage of because I don't know exactly what train I'll be returning on ....

Also, for a journey of 150 miles at full standard class fare you'll now pay ...

Over 50p per mile on Virgin West Coast or First Great Western
Around 40p per mile with Virgin Cross Country or GNER^▸ (Great North Eastern Railways)
Approx 30p per mile with South West Trains.

Some Bargains around ... 18p per mile, single, from London to Bristol - oh, that's London (Waterloo).

This forum is provided by a First Great Western Customer, for First Great Western customers.

Although many of us feel that the present product being supplied to us (Feb '07) falls well below acceptable standards, please don't just make this a knocking shop!.

Please use the forum - yes - to report and discuss failings, but also to liaise with others to help make improvements.  That may mean co-ordinating information, publicity ranging from "serious" to "stunt",  and alternatives.  But it also means posting the positive - a good fare offer or  service beyond the call of duty from the staff at a particular station for example.

Knowledge shared is powerful and this can become a real resource.  Please do post up as much other geeral information about the services, places served, good time had in the wedge of the country served westward from Paddington.  And advise on fare options, routes to go, and how to get a seat in the rush hour are all encouraged.

My personal objective is to work with the train operating company (FGW^▸ (First Great Western)), with the franchise setters (DfT^» (Department for Transport - about)), with the rest of the rail industry (from Network Rail through to the RMT^▸ (National Union of Rail, Maritime & Transport Workers)), with local authorities at all levels, and with other passenger groups .... for the provision, together, of an appropriate service - running when and where it's needed, safely and reliably, and at a sensible cost.  And that service should be marketed / publicised so that it's easy to find out about, easy to use, easy for other transport providers to connect to ... and a great moving experience for the customers.