11822
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Journey by Journey / Chiltern Railways services / Re: Chiltern Evergreen 3 - Further new Track Access Agreement Application
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on: November 03, 2009, 11:48:20
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Yup - sorry, I'd have kiboshed that statement if I'd been reading the board at the time.
The rule is that whoever the fare-setting TOC▸ is for any flow, they can't then also set their own TOC-only fare. Any other operator on that flow is permitted to have their own TOC-only fare. It's to prevent a TOC from undercutting itself, which is seen as anti-competitive.
Chiltern will be the fare setter at Water Eaton, so will only set the Any Permitted fare (which will be via HWY, *not* Oxford, to London). As there will be no competition from there, it will be the only fare available.
I'm sure it will undercut the Any Permitted fare from Oxford, but presumably would be set at the same or only slightly less than the Chiltern fare from Oxford....but would need to be less again than the Bicester fare to London.
Now the Bicester Any Permitted fare will be an interesting topic - currently there are different fares from Bicester North & Bicester Town to London Terminals. Once Chiltern take over routes from both stations, the stations in Bicester will need to be 'grouped' ['Bicester Stations'] (to enable punters to go out from one & return to the other, for example), and thus the fare would have to be the same from each station. That might restrict the fare chargeable from Water Eaton.
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11823
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All across the Great Western territory / The Wider Picture - related rail and other transport issues / Re: "Train firms seek longer contracts" (BBC News 30/10/09)
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on: November 03, 2009, 09:05:36
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AFAICS▸ It really isn't possible for a proposed 'LO inner suburban service' to have its own dedicated routes into, and platforms in, any of the 'SR‡' terminii, so the advantages that you see with the dedicated routes such as the NLL and WLL isn't likely to happen. The plans definitely exist at TfL» as it was in Ken's masterplan, for sure. He mentioned this at meetings more than once. Whether Boris will pick it up, he hasn't yet said. I don't think Ken was worried about sharing stations, but he had the DfT» 's ear, that's for sure. I have never seen any suggestion that Crossrail will be part of LO. Again, with it running all the way to Reading Says who? It currently will go only to Maidenhead. Let's not start stating theory as fact again, please. it gets well outside the London mayor's area of responsibility. Not at Maidenhead, it doesn't :-) I think it may well be a TfL sponsored TOC▸ , but it will have to be a fully integrated mainline TOC, as far as I can see. I wouldn't disagree with that - but can you see any difference between LO and LOROL▸ ? Paul
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11824
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Journey by Journey / Chiltern Railways services / Re: Chiltern Evergreen 3 - Further new Track Access Agreement Application
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on: November 03, 2009, 08:59:04
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Chiltern I'm sure will be advertising like mad, I'm sure....
"Come and try us for no extra cost!"
And Chiltern can set their own Oxford fare, lower than FGW▸ , for their own service! Whereas if FGW drop the 'Any Permitted' fare, they'll gain no advantage & just sugffer a drop in their takings. Unwise, I feel.
In any case, you can be sure that Chiltern will be getting the Rail Settlement Plan changed in their favour - so they'll get a share of Oxford ticket revenue whether or not they carry many from there.
The Section 106 money is from Bicester Village I think - it has to be spent locally....
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11829
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All across the Great Western territory / The Wider Picture - related rail and other transport issues / Go-Ahead & Arriva Trading Statements
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on: November 02, 2009, 14:17:58
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Go-Ahead, Britain^s busiest train operator, said that profits on its London to Midlands franchise had been hit by recent labour disputes. The company was hurt by unofficial industrial action in September when drivers failed to turn up to work following the end of an agreement that gave them double pay on Sundays. Keith Ludeman, chief executive, said on Thursday that management changes relating to the dispute would ^largely offset the underlying profitability of this franchise for the current financial year^. The owner of the London Midland, Southern and Southeastern franchises, which carry about 900,000 passengers a day, said further job cuts and changes to working practices would be needed to keep costs down. The company is heavily exposed to the London commuter market and has seen rising unemployment hit passenger numbers over the past six months. Mr Ludeman predicted that the economic climate would remain ^tough^. Meanwhile, the uncertain state of the rail market was highlighted in a trading statement by Arriva, which said that consistent growth had resumed at its CrossCountry franchise, which runs between Aberdeen in Scotland and Penzance in south-west England. Passenger revenue growth slowed to 1.3 per cent in the 42 weeks to October 24 but rose by 3.8 per cent in the past six weeks. Growth was even higher at its Arriva Trains Wales franchise at 6.7 per cent. Douglas McNeill, analyst at Astaire Securities, described the Arriva figures as a ^ray of light^ for the industry. ^Like its close cousin the employment market, the rail industry is emitting mixed signals at present,^ he said. ^The question for both is whether demand will turn up as soon as GDP does, or only much later.^ http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/20932104-c4af-11de-8d54-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1
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11831
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Journey by Journey / Chiltern Railways services / Re: Chiltern Evergreen 3 - Further new Track Access Agreement Application
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on: November 02, 2009, 09:25:55
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Yes, there are Primary aspirations, which I understand have to be implemented by the required spends itemised in the franchise and secondary aspirations (Oxford was one of therse) which required DfT» approval before being allowed within these spends.
I was linking 'Evergreen x' and being related to the required spends in the franchise, rather than each aspiration. The spend on Evergreen 3 is the last major spend required in the current franchise.
I guess Chiltern may in future want to progress other secondary aspirations, but having to spend their own money over & above franchise requirements means 'real' investment, rather than investing what was specified, and thus could be called taxpayers money. Whether the recession will allow them any fuirther investment opportunities won't be known for at least 5 years, I reckon - when passenger numbers might have recovered to pre-recession plus figures.
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11834
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Journey by Journey / Chiltern Railways services / Re: Chiltern Evergreen 3 - Further new Track Access Agreement Application
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on: November 01, 2009, 21:46:22
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I'd be rather more dubious about the prospects of picking up any traffic from the Cotswolds, indeed, post-2011, if redoubling delivers what we are hoping for, then there will be no logical reason for anyone to get into their cars and trek all the way to Water Eaton, never mind Bicester. Two trains an hour, every hour? And I doubt many people currently using Hanborough would switch - a Carterton/Witney-Water Eaton road journey (unless you go all the way round right past the entrance to Hanborough station or use the windy back road from Cassington to Yarnton) involves negotiating the Wolvercote roundabout Go talk to the County Council - they're so worried that they've insisted Chiltern carry out loads of traffic simulation exercises to show exactly what is likely......
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11835
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Journey by Journey / Chiltern Railways services / Re: Chiltern Evergreen 3 - Further new Track Access Agreement Application
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on: October 30, 2009, 17:34:16
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There will also be new custom generated from Kidlington and North Oxford by people who work in London who currently drive who are put off by the daily slog to get into Oxford city centre to get the train and will be drawn by the journey time from Water Eaton. Hmmm - not many do that drive, I'll wager. 2 hours-plus to get into Central London, plus daily congestion charge plus parking costs. It's a no-brainer. I certainly think there'll be an abstraction of those driving off the Cotswolds to Bicester North curtrently, plus those from Charlbury and even Moreton if the price is right, along with Hanborough. I don't think there'll be many from the Oxford-London coach market either - they'll still get a cheaper ride.... Oxford/Water Eaton to/from High Wycombe won't be a major commuter flow, but there will be enough people to make it more than a trickle Sorry, but we'll have to differ on that one. Proof will be in the eating. I notice Chiltern have requested a very swift review of their services, should forecast numbers not hold up. Also, commuting between Bicester and Oxford is a pain in the butt on the A34 for road users who have been crying out for a regular and quicker train service. Expect a decent shift of business from car and bus there too. Totally agree there, mind you. The bus service will be decimated, I reckon. And the southbound A34 and M40 junction 9 in the morning and northbound in the evening will get a big easing. Until those commuters return to Water Eaton of course.... Put all those things together and I think you will have a service that is well worth it. [/quote]
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