London-Chippenham. Massive increase in advance fares.

[whole diary]

[stannoo]

Once a month I make a return trip from Paddington to Chippenham to visit my elderly mother, outward on Saturday morning at 7am and returning Monday 13.55.

For the last few years the fare was ^11.50 each way, rising to ^13 last year,  for advance tickets.  There was never any problem with availability - I could often leave booking until the week of travel.

I was therefore staggered when I tried to book exactly the same trip last week.  The cheapest fares for these journeys is now ^18.50 each way.  I was trying to book 2 weeks in advance so there should have been no problem with availability.  Just to check I looked at the same times 3, 4 and even 5 weeks in advance.  No ^13 advance fares available on any trip - only the ^18.50 cheapest.

What the hell is going on!  This is over a 30% increase in ticket price.  I thought these advance off-peak fares were Government regulated?

Just to be clear, the journey times I travel are when the trains are virtually empty - never more than a handful of people on each coach.  In other words, precisely when advance fares should (and always have been) available.

Does anyone have the faintest idea what has suddenly changed in the last 3 weeks that would have lead to this?

[grahame]

For the last few years the fare was ^11.50 each way, rising to ^13 last year,  for advance tickets.  There was never any problem with availability - I could often leave booking until the week of travel.

I was therefore staggered when I tried to book exactly the same trip last week.  The cheapest fares for these journeys is now ^18.50 each way. 

What the hell is going on!  This is over a 30% increase in ticket price.  I thought these advance off-peak fares were Government regulated?

Does anyone have the faintest idea what has suddenly changed in the last 3 weeks that would have lead to this?

I believe that the regulated London to Chippenham fares are the off peak (return, I think) and the season tickets. So when there's talk of rail fare rises beling limited to xx%, they're the tickets in question. Being in the middle of the range of fares available, the price of these tickets has some effect in putting a ceiing on super offpeak tickets and advance fares, none of which FGW^▸ (First Great Western) are obliged to offer and can (in theory) reprice on a whim.

In the case of advance fares change allocations within price brackets with a click of the fingers.  And of course if a price bracket's all gone (and it may be a more complex alorithm that simply by train) it will look like a sudden rise - so a modest business growth can lead to a spectacular increase for the unlucky few.

Welcome the forum Stannoo ... I'm jumping in with a partial answer and I'm sure certain other experts will come in with further comment.

[bobm]

Just had a look at the last weekend in March and the fares are ^18.50 outward and ^16.50 back.  The last weekend in April is ^13 each way.

There is a separate Saturday timetable until the end of March - I haven't studied it, but are there fewer trains.  That might explain the higher outward ticket, but not of course the return.

[stannoo]

Thanks both for the replies!

Just had a look at the last weekend in March and the fares are ^18.50 outward and ^16.50 back.  The last weekend in April is ^13 each way.

So it looks like the ^13 fares still exist but instead of being able to book them up to a few days in advance, they would now have to be booked almost 3 months ahead?

I originally thought that this could be a result of a large decrease of allocation (meaning the very few available are snapped up quickly), but the more journeys I checked the more it became apparent that the ^13 fares aren't available on ANY journeys less than 2 months in advance.  The chances of this being a result of the all the advance fares having been bought already is so slim as to rule it out.

This would seem to suggest that there has been a change in allocation policy rather than a just a reduced allocation.  Whatever the reason, an increase of over 30% is really hard to take and would sadly make it impossible for me to make this journey so often.

What are the chances of getting FGW^▸ (First Great Western) to explain what's going on here?

[JayMac]

Welcome to the forum stannoo. 

Advance Purchase fares are entirely at the control of the train operator. They can set the price, allocation and availability as they see fit and to what they believe the market will bear. There is no market regulation for these fares, they are there to fill excess capacity beyond that filled by Season, Anytime and Off Peak/Super Off Peak ticket holders.

It is supply and demand. With the ever increasing numbers of passengers using the railways there will be fewer seats to fill with Advance Purchase fares.

[stannoo]

Wow.  Thanks for explaining the system.  So it seems they are able to do more or less what they like with these fares.

Even so, I can't believe that they feel able to increase these advance fares across the board by over 30% and not be answerable to anyone.  I can't think of any other service that would get away with that sort of increase without there being an outcry.

[ellendune]

Of course they will say that they have not increased these fares.  They still offer some they will say (though perhaps so few that you have to book them a long time in advance). Lets hope it is temporary. 

You could look at it another way. If you had bought a walk up ticket and could not get a seat because of lots of people who had paid far less than you - you might feel a little aggrieved. If there are going to be less spare seats for a time of generally then they would not want to drive those paying more normal fares off the trains. 

Of course they cannot increase them above the lowest valid walk on fare and certainly not above the lowest valid regulated fare.  So there are limits. 

[chrisr_75]

Same happened to me in May last year on S.Wales to Paddington, huge increase (or reduction in allocation of the tickets I used to buy) in price of advance tickets. I now use the M4 motorway weekly instead.

A colleague travelling from Somerset to Paddington has experienced the same issue at about the same time last year with FGW^▸ (First Great Western) and now uses SouthWestern for his journey.

[Oxman]

Advance tickets are sold at discounted prices to entice passengers to use a service they might not otherwise use. Think of it as a shop running a promotion - the price of goods will be vary day to day to create and reflect demand. FGW^▸ (First Great Western) (and all the other TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company), I'm sure) are only doing what all retailers do to stimulate demand and maximise profit. Your ticket was at a "sale" price - its still at a "sale" price, but not as a big a discount as before!

[stannoo]

You could look at it another way. If you had bought a walk up ticket and could not get a seat because of lots of people who had paid far less than you - you might feel a little aggrieved. If there are going to be less spare seats for a time of generally then they would not want to drive those paying more normal fares off the trains. 

Yes, absolutely.  I can guarantee you though that the on the trips I make capacity isn't an issue!  I'd say the carriages are well under 25% capacity - about as quiet as train journeys get.

[chrisr_75]

Advance tickets are sold at discounted prices to entice passengers to use a service they might not otherwise use. Think of it as a shop running a promotion - the price of goods will be vary day to day to create and reflect demand. FGW^▸ (First Great Western) (and all the other TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company), I'm sure) are only doing what all retailers do to stimulate demand and maximise profit. Your ticket was at a "sale" price - its still at a "sale" price, but not as a big a discount as before!

Am well aware of the purpose of advance tickets, thanks! And it did work...for a while...the cheapest ticket I can now hope to obtain is around the ^90 mark return in standard, well over ^150 in first, at the times I need to travel. Cost of diesel for the round trip = ~^45 (+ 1 x ^6.50 for the Severn crossing) for a quicker, more comfortable & more flexible journey from door to door, no Tubes, no taxis.

I believe there was a change sometime last year when FGW took a greater share of the financial risk for the franchise from HM Gov, which may explain why they seem to be hammering those of us who chose to use advance tickets.

[grahame]

Some further comment / thoughts on this ... all "as I understand it" as just an interested passenger - and all written in a way that's intended to be factual rather than expressing any opinions.

As well as there being some regulated fares, FGW^▸ (First Great Western) are also obliged to accept certain ATOC^» (Association of Train Operating Companies See - here) (Associaition of Train Operating Companies) National deals such as rail cards (typically offering 34% off), whereas other ATOC deals (such as groupsave) are at their discression / choice.  The "Two Together" is a recent(ish) innovation they were obliged to accept, and that can knock a 13 pound ticket that went up to 18 back down to 11.90 if you travel with a friend. I don't know how the (often) 30 pounds for a railcard is distributed.  Another "all must take" set of tickets are the BritRail products.

As a commercial company, the main motivator has to be profit.  If 12 people travel at 13 pounds, income is ^156.  If you increase the price to 18 pounds, and only 10 people travel, you have increased your income to ^180 pounds.   Cost of providing on trains with plenty of seats isn't going to differ much, but it will be slightly cheaper to provide for 10 rather than 12 - on the other hand, you loose the extras such as buffet sales and perhaps add-on journeys on other public transport, (tube, First bus at Chippenham perhaps).   These are the sort of sums that someone's doing, and they will probably tell you are "commercial in confidence" if you ask.  How much money is lost / made is a factor in what's bid for the next francshise, and effects who gets it.

There have been other massive increases in fares at times. Changes to Groupsave last year resulted in certain group fares, and removal of the Westbury to London day travelcard a couple of years back both produced cases of fare rises for those effected of over 50%.  But then changes to single tickets (which had previously been 10p less that returns in many cases), removal of anomolies such as Swindon to Salisbury that was 56 pound single on direct 'peak' trains at one point, and introducting a new flow "via Melksham" if you're headed from Chippenham to West Wilts or Frome have all reduced certain fares massively. Alas, people remember the increases for years and the decreases for just days; the overall bottom line to look at is probably the average pence per mile per person paid and I HAVE seen that quoted - I recall it was 19p per mile, but I may be wrong and it's lost somewhere in our 168,000 posts!

[stannoo]

Many thanks for all the replies.  I know a lot more about FGW^▸ (First Great Western)'s fare structures now!  I've contacted their customer services dept but I'm not holding my breath.

Great forum BTW^▸ (by the way)!