Advent Quiz ...

[whole diary]

[JayMac]

And to add to that I'd like to see the proposals for a station serving Somerton and Langport come to fruition. Ideal additional market to add to the Go-op proposals.

What with me now living in Langport. 

[froome]

A service from Taunton through Frome to link into the Trans Wilts line makes great sense to me. It also links people into main lines in every direction from each end.

On Graham's comments about new people enjoying the service, sadly my experience yesterday was the opposite. The usual completely squashed journey from Bristol to Oldfield Park (two carriages, early afternoon, not sure everyone did manage to board as it was so crammed and late arriving at Bristol), and the two men with their noses almost in my face were obviously people who weren't regular train users. Their comment was that if it is usually like this, they are not going to use it again. Sadly it is usually like that.

[grahame]

On Graham's comments about new people enjoying the service, sadly my experience yesterday was the opposite. The usual completely squashed journey from Bristol to Oldfield Park (two carriages, early afternoon, not sure everyone did manage to board as it was so crammed and late arriving at Bristol), and the two men with their noses almost in my face were obviously people who weren't regular train users. Their comment was that if it is usually like this, they are not going to use it again. Sadly it is usually like that.

The 2005 (10 year) franchise was costed / resourced based on a forecast of 0.8% compound growth per year, but what we've seen has been 8% compound growth and the systems simply haven't kept up with that.

Oldfield Park passenger numbers in 2005/06 were 156,753 and with 0.8% growth than would have risen to 168,407 by 2015/16.  8% growth - the general figure that's happened across the area - would have taken numbers up to 313,349 ... actual reported number is higher still at 315,070.  Net effect - Oldfield Park is coping with twice the number of passengers it should and enhancements (welcome though they have been in the ten years) come nowhere like doubling capacity.

When I hear comments like yours, Froome, I'm saddened at the loss of potential business and wonder what the growth rate would be if it was not being held back by capacity and customer negative sentiment based on poor capacity.  10%?   12%?   Projecting forward another 10 years:
at 0.8%: 338,500
at 8%: 629,800
at 10%: 743,000
at 12%: 873,300 by 2025/6

[froome]

The frustrating thing is that it just needs extra rolling stock, nothing else, to solve the problem (the platforms at Oldfield Park and Keynsham are long enough for 5 carriage trains at least, probably more). The overcrowding has been there for at least 15 years, probably more, and led to a fare strike about 9 years ago to protest at this. At that time GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) did lengthen a few trains I believe, but that didn't last long and we've been back to 2 carriage trains for most services. I'm well aware of the issues about ordering extra rolling stock, but it should have happened by now and it seems there is no prospect in sight for it to happen.

And as I've explained before, the official statistics for users of the station bear no reality to the actual number of users.

[grahame]

The frustrating thing is that it just needs extra rolling stock, nothing else, to solve the problem (the platforms at Oldfield Park and Keynsham are long enough for 5 carriage trains at least, probably more). The overcrowding has been there for at least 15 years, probably more, and led to a fare strike about 9 years ago to protest at this. At that time GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) did lengthen a few trains I believe, but that didn't last long and we've been back to 2 carriage trains for most services. I'm well aware of the issues about ordering extra rolling stock, but it should have happened by now and it seems there is no prospect in sight for it to happen.

I recall an order for 10 x 4 car class 172 trains for Cardiff / Portsmouth that would have been running by now if they hadn't been cancelled because electrification was a better alternative.  That would have releasesed 12 x 2 car class 158 trains sorely needed for other services in the Bristol and Devon / Exeter areas.

I recall loco hauled trains (old but loved) running from Cardiff to Taunton, but for some reason I forget, when something extra was cascaded (150/1s?) they were replaced not enhanced

I recall that electrification to places such as Oxford, Henley, Swansea and Bristol was going to release lots of units (and indeed many will still be released due to bi-modes) but the time scale 'promised' for that seems to have fallen back rather since last year's general election.

There is a need to keep the capacity issues on the radar of those decision makers who don't live in the area and use them on a regular basis.  From an accountant's viewpoint it's easy to divide ticket sales by seats and come up with quite low percentages.   And it's also rather easy to divide the cost of an extra carriage by the time in each day that it's "really needed" and find that you need to take an extra £25 per minute in fares for that busy stretch to pay for it.

A rather negative answer confirming your despair there.  We are getting closer to cascades, and there are some radical things that could be done.   Making all into IEPs^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) could be considered radical and has been done. Re-arranging off peak and super off peak at weekends (as SWT^▸ (South West Trains) are doing) could help balance the Saturday and Sunday loading and provide increased revenue at the weekend when the trains are getting equally busy. D trains with substantially more carriages than the trains they're replacing could perhaps be quickly drafted in onto certain lines, releasing current stock.  I've heard mention of attaching locomotives to withdrawn electric multiple units, for example - and that has been done with some success on preserved lines, hasn't it?

Realistically, I don't know what the answer is.  One positive route is to ensure that our elected representatives are well informed and know and echo the strength of view, and that views are expressed to support practical ways of doing things and letting it be known that compromises - such as replacing something with something just as old or even older - but longer and more frequent - IS acceptable!

And as I've explained before, the official statistics for users of the station bear no reality to the actual number of users.

Indeed - I 'shorthanded' what I wrote for "ticket sales figures". Even away from group station issues (Dorchester, Dorking, Tyndrum, etc) and line rovers which make a real mess on the St Ives brach, they can be way out in either direction from passenger numbers joining  / leaving trains - both us and down.  What they do indicate unless there's a change in ticket regime is a trend.

[stuving]

I think that rather underplays how much has changed in the industry's plans and expectations. The ATOC^» (Association of Train Operating Companies See - here) rolling stock assessment that came out in February 2014 (i.e. at the start of CP5^▸ (Control Period 5 - the five year period between 2014 and 2019)) said this, based on orders then known about:

67. Assuming that the current policy of a rolling electrification programme continues in CP6^▸ (Control Period 6 - The five year period between 2019 and 2024),
the analysis suggests that no new diesel vehicles (or other self-powered vehicles) would be
required to be built in either CP5 or CP6. Many older diesel vehicles would be withdrawn over
this period, firstly those HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) which are being replaced by IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) (although some might be used
on other TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company) including open access operators), and then by 2024 around 500 (50%) of the
shorter-distance Type A 75 mph DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) procured by British Rail in the 1980s. This might include
many of the Class 14x ’Pacer’ vehicles which will be replaced by electrification in the North of
England and in South Wales. There will be a smaller percentage reduction in the number of
90 mph and 100 mph Type B DMUs. These were built after 1989, and many of these will be
redeployed to provide additional capacity on non-electrified routes.

Unfortunately they chose to split train types into self-powered only and electric (including bi-modes), so it's hard to set the large number of bi-modes ordered since then against the earlier numbers. But, while I've rather lost track of the total, it must be quite substantial by now. And there's the life extension of some HSTs, which was also decided after that document.

Of course the train types and the services they operate may not match how passenger numbers and travel patterns vary along a route. TOCs still don't seem to be prepared to improve on the franchise SLC^▸ (Service Level Commitment) where needed, but then we've been a bit short of new full-length franchises recently. At least some TOCs do seem prepared to ignore DfT^» (Department for Transport - about)'s ideas and order rolling stock.

[grahame]

I think that rather underplays how much has changed in the industry's plans and expectations.

Which makes it even more frustrating that I suggested for the passengers crowded onto the existing trains, and with little confidence in any promises as to when things might get better.

[grahame]

Merry Christmas!