Electric and autonomous vehicles

[whole diary]

[Bmblbzzz]

Probably the largest impact of AVs^▸ (Autonomous (self driving) Vehicle) in the long run will be on freight; lorry drivers and van drivers will be a thing of the past, costs of road haulage will fall due to no longer paying drivers' wages, maintenance costs and associated downtime and insurance premiums are likely to fall, there will be no drivers' hours regs to adhere to, and "platooning" lorries on motorways will make big fuel savings. So railfreight is going to suffer.

Also very worrying...

Depends how you look at it. If more efficient and safer lorries are replacing the ones we have at the moment, that's good. If they're replacing freight trains, not good; unless the platooned lorries manage to be more efficient and safer than trains, of course, but I think that's unlikely. And of course, rail will be changing too; there might even be platooned, driverless trains – or something completely different that we haven't thought of yet.

[Rhydgaled]

It appears a curious logic to be worried about developments which will make road transport cheaper, more efficient, environmentally more friendly, safer etc, purely because it will be at the cost of rail. Surely we should be pleased if the form of transport that makes up the majority of passenger and freight journeys improves in every respect?

Making road transport more efficient, more environmentally friendly and safer is good, yes.

BUT, electric trains (and buses) are presumably always going to be even more efficient and environmentally friendly, so losing these options to a second-best state of afairs is my concern (particularly for freight, where lorries are set to remain diesel even if their fuel economy will improve with automation). Or to put it another way:

BEST

• 1) Electric railways, with electric buses and electric cars feeding into them, legs of frieght transport done on electric trains
• 2) Electric cars and automated lorries, modal shift away from public transport and clousure of non-electrified lines leaving few railways (with no freight trains left) and even fewer bus services
• 3) Heavy use of petrol and diesel cars, with public transport having a small mode share (including some freight on rail)
• 4) No railways or buses, all transport by petrol and diesel cars and lorries

WORST

So, we may be going to move up from 3) (where we are now), so a step in the right direction, but I'm worried we are heading for 2) rather than the ideal of 1). Also, the list above might not be in the correct order, depending on what the impact of modal shift away from rail (particularly for frieght) is in terms of greenhouse gas emissions.

[ChrisB]

We might make 1) for long distance travel - electric cars won't have the range of their petrol/diesel equivalents

[Noggin]

We might make 1) for long distance travel - electric cars won't have the range of their petrol/diesel equivalents

Depends on how long they take to recharge and the prevalence of charging stations. I do Bristol to Sheffield (180m) reasonably frequently, so would be quite happy to plug the car in whilst I have a cup of coffee mid-route. 

[ChrisB]

Think you might be ordering a hot meal, methinks :-)

I'd hope you could get 200ish miles out of a charge - so you'd just need a charging point at your destination to get you back again.

[Bmblbzzz]

The name given to the charging points developed in Japan, Chademo, derives from the Japanese for "Time for a cup of tea." I think the idea is a few short top ups on route, with most charging done overnight, rather than one long charge.

[Red Squirrel]

Think you might be ordering a hot meal, methinks :-)

I'd hope you could get 200ish miles out of a charge - so you'd just need a charging point at your destination to get you back again.

There are charging stations at most motorway service stations, which are capable of DC^▸ (Direct Current) fast-charging to 80% capacity in about 30 minutes. This map shows Ecotricity's chargers, though there are many, many others.

A good current electric car with a 30kWh battery will get you about 160km, but the next generation (Tesla Model 3, Nissan Leaf, Chevrolet Volt EV) look likely to hit that 320 km sweet spot. Obviously the premium Teslas are already there. Most people who are in a position to splash out on a new car are probably of an age where their bladder runs out of range before their car does...

[ChrisB]

You think there's enough of them to even handle 50% take-up on electrics? The queue, at 30mins a charge, will be massive.

[Tim]

You think there's enough of them to even handle 50% take-up on electrics? The queue, at 30mins a charge, will be massive.

Quite,  we are still at the very early stages.  At the moment some of the attraction of owning an electric car is that you can rely on a free parking space and in many places free electricity at charging stations.  When electric becomes the norm that will no longer apply.

Personally, whilst I do see electric as the future, I suspect that our cars (much like our trains) will be carting around a small internal combustion engine for a while yet) for journeys beyond the electricity supply. 

[Red Squirrel]

At the moment some of the attraction of owning an electric car is that you can rely on a free parking space and in many places free electricity at charging stations. 

Well you can't actually, in my experience - I've not found a place where you don't pay the same to park as everyone else, and it's depressingly common to find a fossil-powered vehicle blocking access to the charging stations.

You think there's enough of them to even handle 50% take-up on electrics? The queue, at 30mins a charge, will be massive.

No, and it would indeed. I am conscious that there are others on this forum who know far more about electricity supply than I do, but I am fairly confident that adding new chargers incrementally will keep up with demand for a while; the cost per charger is relatively low.

[ChrisB]

Hmmm, in pretty quick time there'll be a need for every car park space to be fitted.

Take up, once under way, will be quick - manufacturers will ensure that there's enough attractive credit available.

[IndustryInsider]

Time to move this interesting debate into a separate thread?

[broadgage]

You think there's enough of them to even handle 50% take-up on electrics? The queue, at 30mins a charge, will be massive.

No, not at present, but more can be and will be built if the demand exists.

In 1900 I doubt that enough petrol suppliers existed to fill up the present number of cars, but I do not recall the development of petrol cars being significantly hampered by lack of petrol.

[patch38]

But the issue is that it takes about three minutes to fill a car with fuel. The charge time is far longer.

Maybe that's why all petrol stations have turned into mini supermarkets and there's only ever one person on the till and the entire local community are in front of you doing their whole week's shop? They are simply training us to be there longer.

What a brilliant conspiracy theory. 

[Bmblbzzz]

Maybe that's why all petrol stations have turned into mini supermarkets and there's only ever one person on the till and the entire local community are in front of you doing their whole week's shop? They are simply training us to be there longer.

What a brilliant conspiracy theory. 

It does highlight another issue though. There is, apparently, very little margin in selling petrol and diesel retail. Which is why petrol stations need to sell all sorts of other stuff, including turning themselves into Costas, to make a decent income. Will there be profit in selling electrons at high enough voltage and current to rapid charge cars? Until recently, many rapid charging stations were literally giving it away, in order to build up a customer base. Obviously there's no money in slow charging, cos most people will do that at home.