Looking backward, looking forward.

[whole diary]

[grahame]

From my daily scribbling in Melksham

When I asked the ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) (Office of Rail and Road) in 2005 how busy the railway line through Melksham was, they came back with ticketed passenger journey numbers of around 3,000 per year. The figure to March 2020, including the start of the first lockdown, was 75,000.



[continues]

And I have risked getting my crystal ball out ...

In four years time - in line with the table above - I can see travel to and from Melksham Station looking something like this:

[TaplowGreen]

What factors led you to forecast passengers rising from 75,000 to 250,000 over the next four years Graham?

For example, I'd be interested in your thoughts on how the new, post Covid world of changed working practices may influence this?

[grahame]

What factors led you to forecast passengers rising from 75,000 to 250,000 over the next four years Graham?

For example, I'd be interested in your thoughts on how the new, post Covid world of changed working practices may influence this?

From a year ago - see http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=22954 which suggested an outcome of between 260,000 and 600,000 over a period.  Since then, yes, you have covid and changed works patterns making a big difference in one direction, but you have the climate change agenda pushing it in the other direction.   Also in Melksham we have a further local area plan that indicates a growth of the town far more than would have been anticipated - our MP^▸ (Member of Parliament) mentioned a doubling in size at a public Zoom meeting.   So the 250,000 and the timescale is far more of a guess than it was just last Spring - there's an even wider spread of possible outcomes - but look through all those provisos in the referred post and that is well where we might be.

Edit to add ... the 250k figure in the longer run allows for an average drop from five round trips to around three for work "commuters" - won't be the same for everyone - that's an average, using varied evidence to suggest that people expect this sort of level. other reasons for travel to be less changed if at all.   More like half term all the time??

[TaplowGreen]

As you are now entering politics Graham, and remembering "Yes Minister", I would say that you are making a very "courageous" forecast! 

[IndustryInsider]

I would say making any kind of forecast at the moment is verging on foolish, though I would be very wary of accusing Graham of being a fool.  Well done for sticking your neck out, or as TG would say, very ‘courageous’ of you...and fair play for doing it.

Time will tell as to how accurate your prediction is.

[grahame]

Gentlemen, do note the caveats and social change notes on the evidence that already backs up this piece, and the table described as "Where might we be in the future".  Perhaps it [is/was] courageous or foolish to point out where we could be ... perhaps "should" might have been a better woollifier?

Caveats
1. The service needs to be safe and reliable
2. Capacity needs to increase in line with demand
3. Frequency needs to increase
4. Fares need to be at a sensible level
5. Information systems and fare regimes need to be good
6. It needs to be eas[y/ier] to get to the station ...
7. It should not be duplicating other new transport
8. [Town size] Growth rate estimates

Social change notes
1. Reduction in 5 day a week commuters
2. Increase in leisure travel
3. Climate and international issues
3a. Move away from the private car
4. Public transport as useful time

[grahame]

What factors led you to forecast passengers rising from 75,000 to 250,000 over the next four years Graham?

For example, I'd be interested in your thoughts on how the new, post Covid world of changed working practices may influence this?

Re-quoting this (see previous replies) ... from This is Wiltshire

CHIPPENHAM MP^▸ (Member of Parliament) Michelle Donelan has officially opened the new Hub Café at Melksham Railway Station.

She was invited by TransWilts community rail partnership to open the café on Saturday (May 1).

The café will be available to the whole of the Melksham community not just rail passengers using the increasingly busy station.

[snip]

In 2011, Melksham station was used by only 11,000 commuters but since then passenger numbers have increased dramatically.

The Melksham Hub now serves more than 75,000 rail commuters who use the station to get to Chippenham, Swindon, Trowbridge,Westbury and beyond.

Mr Johnson added: “With a community population of 30,867 we expect a substantial growth in passenger usage of up to 450,000 by 2026.”

Which makes my number look rather conservative!

To be clear, though, all the numbers being quoted are either journeys or journey tickets. 

to 3.2011 - 11,000 journey tickets sold, but estimate all but 3,000 were bought at Trowbridge or Bradford-on-Avon for journey to Bristol as the longer journey ticket was cheaper and valid.  I would estimate 1500 arrival and 1500 departure journeys - probably under 500 different passengers involved.

to 3.2020 - 75,000 journey tickets sold and now the vast majority really were for journeys to or from Melksham.  That's around 37,000 arrivals and 37,000 departures and from recent years surveys, best guess around 2,500 different people involved.

to 3.2021 - ("now") - it's a far cry from 75,000 - the year was decimated, and I simply don't know.  Peak trains have fared worst; I think the article uses "now" as meaning the latest published figures which are pre-covid.

My 250,000 in 4 years - if it all lines up - 125k arrivals, 125k departures, say 6,000 different users.  You will note the steady increase in numbers of journeys per person as it moves from occasional use to more frequent (day to day, not just outings) use by many of the people

Mr Johnson's 450,000 in 5 years is brave. Sure, possible, but all the ducks need to line up really well.  If buses to the station arrive by next April, more trains (as Go-op propose) by next May, etc, then, yes, it could be.