Has political support for railways waned? Are they important to the PM?

[whole diary]

[grahame]

A comment made the other day suggested that previous prime ministers (Cameron, May, Johnson) had constituencies with rail stations whereas the current prime misnister (Sunak) does not. The comment was wrong - Northallerton, Yarm, Eaglescliffe and a number of intermediate stations on the railway to Whitby are in his constituency, but to my knowledge none of these stations has large commuter flows; there are significant flows, of course, through the constituency.  I have looked at the old map (here) from 2018 (borders right, colours wrong I believe) to provide the mapping and for members I have mirrored that (here) in which I have rotated the second page to be right way up.  The "What is the ecomomic value of rail to your constituency" is interesting.

Total Gross Value Added - Total Jobs - Total Tax Contibutions
Values in million pounds per annum.

Witney (Cameron) - 34.3, 610, 9.8
Maidenhead (May) - 73.1, 1110, 24.0
Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Johnson) - 209.7, 2110, 80.0
South West Norfolk (Truss) - 34.5, 630, 9.7
Richmond (Yorks) (Sunak) - 30.3, 700, 8.0

So rail is much less important to Sunak's local area than it was to May of Johnson.    Look also at some Chancellors:
Tatton (Osborne) - 67.6, 1210, 20.2
Runnymede and Weybridge (Hammond) - 77.7, 1230, 21.9
South West Surrey (Hunt) - 39.2, 780, 10.7

My local MP^▸ (Member of Parliament):
Chippenham (Donelan) - 87.2, 1030, 24.2

Boundaries change for the next election and "Chippenham" changes - it no longer includes Melksham, which becomes "Melksham and Devizes". We have been playing musical chairs around here, and probably are doing for the rest of the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) too ...

Now look at something else - Mail Online asks

Has WFH defeated the train strikes? Impact of industrial action is 'weakening' as Britain becomes a 'flexible working nation' and the regular commute has 'ceased to exist', expert says as rail workers walk out
RMT^▸ (National Union of Rail, Maritime & Transport Workers) strike cripples services today and will happen again on July 22 and July 29

I note that the current set of strikes are 1 x midweek and 2 x Saturday and that there's been a bit of a recent pattern on Saturdays.  So is it now more effective in helpig their objectives for the rail unions to choose leisure days rather than work days?

A few years back, I would have thought "nothing" of travelling to Swindon, or Exter, or London for an hour's meeting.  These days, such trips are very few and far between, and even GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) - quote from a senior manager the other day - "preCovid we would think nothing of having someone come up from Exeter to Swindon for an hour's meeting. These days, we do it through [Zoom/Teams]".

[TaplowGreen]

A comment made the other day suggested that previous prime ministers (Cameron, May, Johnson) had constituencies with rail stations whereas the current prime misnister (Sunak) does not. The comment was wrong - Northallerton, Yarm, Eaglescliffe and a number of intermediate stations on the railway to Whitby are in his constituency, but to my knowledge none of these stations has large commuter flows; there are significant flows, of course, through the constituency.  I have looked at the old map (here) from 2018 (borders right, colours wrong I believe) to provide the mapping and for members I have mirrored that (here) in which I have rotated the second page to be right way up.  The "What is the ecomomic value of rail to your constituency" is interesting.

Total Gross Value Added - Total Jobs - Total Tax Contibutions
Values in million pounds per annum.

Witney (Cameron) - 34.3, 610, 9.8
Maidenhead (May) - 73.1, 1110, 24.0
Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Johnson) - 209.7, 2110, 80.0
South West Norfolk (Truss) - 34.5, 630, 9.7
Richmond (Yorks) (Sunak) - 30.3, 700, 8.0

So rail is much less important to Sunak's local area than it was to May of Johnson.    Look also at some Chancellors:
Tatton (Osborne) - 67.6, 1210, 20.2
Runnymede and Weybridge (Hammond) - 77.7, 1230, 21.9
South West Surrey (Hunt) - 39.2, 780, 10.7

My local MP^▸ (Member of Parliament):
Chippenham (Donelan) - 87.2, 1030, 24.2

Boundaries change for the next election and "Chippenham" changes - it no longer includes Melksham, which becomes "Melksham and Devizes". We have been playing musical chairs around here, and probably are doing for the rest of the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) too ...

Now look at something else - Mail Online asks

Has WFH defeated the train strikes? Impact of industrial action is 'weakening' as Britain becomes a 'flexible working nation' and the regular commute has 'ceased to exist', expert says as rail workers walk out
RMT^▸ (National Union of Rail, Maritime & Transport Workers) strike cripples services today and will happen again on July 22 and July 29

I note that the current set of strikes are 1 x midweek and 2 x Saturday and that there's been a bit of a recent pattern on Saturdays.  So is it now more effective in helpig their objectives for the rail unions to choose leisure days rather than work days?

A few years back, I would have thought "nothing" of travelling to Swindon, or Exter, or London for an hour's meeting.  These days, such trips are very few and far between, and even GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) - quote from a senior manager the other day - "preCovid we would think nothing of having someone come up from Exeter to Swindon for an hour's meeting. These days, we do it through [Zoom/Teams]".

As we've said elsewhere, the strikes are only causing disruption at an "inconvenience" level, nothing is grinding to a halt (least of all London) which is what the rail unions traditionally relied on for leverage.

Ongoing for over a year now and people are largely just rearranging plans/work around them.

Remote working/WFH and the more widespread ability to do so via Zoom/Teams is a big factor, with a greatly reduced need for business travel............there are no doubt still people suffering thanks to the Unions action, probably lower paid essential workers and occasional travellers who will probably get in the car next time instead.

As for the Unions objectives, probably time for them to realistically reassess them.

It's clear the Government are happy to let this one run and run (and they can afford to, mainly due to the factors above), not a big vote winner/loser either way in the bigger picture.

[Electric train]

A comment made the other day suggested that previous prime ministers (Cameron, May, Johnson) had constituencies with rail stations whereas the current prime misnister (Sunak) does not. The comment was wrong - Northallerton, Yarm, Eaglescliffe and a number of intermediate stations on the railway to Whitby are in his constituency, but to my knowledge none of these stations has large commuter flows; there are significant flows, of course, through the constituency.  I have looked at the old map (here) from 2018 (borders right, colours wrong I believe) to provide the mapping and for members I have mirrored that (here) in which I have rotated the second page to be right way up.  The "What is the ecomomic value of rail to your constituency" is interesting.

Total Gross Value Added - Total Jobs - Total Tax Contibutions
Values in million pounds per annum.

Witney (Cameron) - 34.3, 610, 9.8
Maidenhead (May) - 73.1, 1110, 24.0
Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Johnson) - 209.7, 2110, 80.0
South West Norfolk (Truss) - 34.5, 630, 9.7
Richmond (Yorks) (Sunak) - 30.3, 700, 8.0

So rail is much less important to Sunak's local area than it was to May of Johnson.    Look also at some Chancellors:
Tatton (Osborne) - 67.6, 1210, 20.2
Runnymede and Weybridge (Hammond) - 77.7, 1230, 21.9
South West Surrey (Hunt) - 39.2, 780, 10.7

My local MP^▸ (Member of Parliament):
Chippenham (Donelan) - 87.2, 1030, 24.2

Boundaries change for the next election and "Chippenham" changes - it no longer includes Melksham, which becomes "Melksham and Devizes". We have been playing musical chairs around here, and probably are doing for the rest of the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) too ...

Now look at something else - Mail Online asks

Has WFH defeated the train strikes? Impact of industrial action is 'weakening' as Britain becomes a 'flexible working nation' and the regular commute has 'ceased to exist', expert says as rail workers walk out
RMT^▸ (National Union of Rail, Maritime & Transport Workers) strike cripples services today and will happen again on July 22 and July 29

I note that the current set of strikes are 1 x midweek and 2 x Saturday and that there's been a bit of a recent pattern on Saturdays.  So is it now more effective in helpig their objectives for the rail unions to choose leisure days rather than work days?

A few years back, I would have thought "nothing" of travelling to Swindon, or Exter, or London for an hour's meeting.  These days, such trips are very few and far between, and even GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) - quote from a senior manager the other day - "preCovid we would think nothing of having someone come up from Exeter to Swindon for an hour's meeting. These days, we do it through [Zoom/Teams]".

May also has 3 other stations in her constituency, Cookham, Furze Platt and Twyford, with the boundary changes she looses Twyford

It's not that Sunak has a low regard for the railways ................ its just he has a total lack of regard for any of the public services ............... he is wealthy enough not to need them so doesn't see why they should be funded by the tax payer better to cut public services to enable tax cuts

[eightonedee]

It's not that Sunak has a low regard for the railways ................ its just he has a total lack of regard for any of the public services ...............

to be fair to the man - he's got so much on his plate mopping up the mess left by his two predecessors (and the impact on public finances of the pandemic), public transport scarcely figures, other than another area where wage pressure causes problems.

Sadly, I see no prospect of this changing, whichever party gets in "next time", nor indeed for public transport to feature as an election issue. All parties will declare their love and support for the health service, but say that they will "reform" it to make it better..............

[TaplowGreen]

It's not that Sunak has a low regard for the railways ................ its just he has a total lack of regard for any of the public services ...............

Sadly, I see no prospect of this changing, whichever party gets in "next time", nor indeed for public transport to feature as an election issue. All parties will declare their love and support for the health service, but say that they will "reform" it to make it better..............

It would be great if Starmer and Sunak - two men who I believe to be fundamentally decent - unlike the two party Leaders that contested the last general election - could sit down together, agree to take the politics out of the NHS, appoint a Royal Commission to consider its future and agree to abide by its findings and recommendations.

Moving back into the real world however, I think I'd best not hold my breath............

[Surrey 455]

I had assumed that the only National Rail station in the Uxbridge constituency was South Ruislip. But it seems that platforms 3, 4 and 5 (the Crossrail Elizabeth line platforms) at West Drayton are also in that constituency with Platforms 1 & 2 in John McDonnell's Hayes & Harlington constituency.

https://mapit.mysociety.org/area/65613.html

[grahame]

Following up on my post above as an afterthought, I looked up the constituencies of the current Secretary of State for transport and Rail minister

Total Gross Value Added - Total Jobs - Total Tax Contibutions
Values in million pounds per annum.


Forest of Dean (Harper) - 18.1, 360, 5.0
Bexhill and Battle (Merriman) - 24.5, 420, 7.7

To help put those figures in context:
Average over all 650 constituencies - 56.0, 920, 17.0

So on all three measures, both of our transport ministers have less that half the average rail significance in their constituencies.  And looking back at our current PM and current chancellor, both of them are way below average on all three measures.

[Noggin]

I don't think it's that it's that calculated, simply that we are back to a Government wanting to balance the books and railways (wrongly) being seen as a money pit that which can be squeezed to enable louder voices to be satisfied. 

However, as we all know, the reality is that railways, especially electric ones with frequent trains, are transformational in the way that road transport is simply not, not to mention that once you defer maintenance, it can be very expensive to catch up. 

It's rather ironic as I'd suggest that in places like middle England and the Welsh Valleys, the one thing most likely to turn constituencies blue would be reliable electric railways enabling social mobility and commuting.

Incidentally, whilst the number of people commuting Monday to Friday and traveling on business might be down, the rise of WFH^▸ (Working From Home) makes longer commuting for 1/2/3 days per week much more practical and affordable. Pre-Covid I'd have had to been earning a hefty sum (and have had a very accommodating wife) to make a Bristol to London daily commute realistic, but two days/week in London would now be no big deal. Lots of people in that boat. 

 

[simonw]

The economics of the railways are an interesting subject.

I think the cost of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) (political and financial) has sapped political support and caused retrenchment in other parts of the rail system.

If the government wants to reduce the cost of Network Rail, create long term programmes and forget about them politically. Short term programmes are expensive and take as much political effort.

For example

• 25 year programme to electrify all rail lines
• 25 year programme to improve track gauge and remove road crossings

[Electric train]

The economics of the railways are an interesting subject.

I think the cost of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) (political and financial) has sapped political support and caused retrenchment in other parts of the rail system.

If the government wants to reduce the cost of Network Rail, create long term programmes and forget about them politically. Short term programmes are expensive and take as much political effort.

For example

• 25 year programme to electrify all rail lines
• 25 year programme to improve track gauge and remove road crossings

Problem is all Governments irrespective of the colour of their rosette suffer from strategic myopia when it comes to committing government funding, they are willing only to see as far as the next general election

[CyclingSid]

It has been said that Sunak, or his advisers, see themselves as a Thatcher to beat the unions. So the coal miners were beaten and effectively we have no coal industry. The result of the Uxbridge by-election has called green issues in to question. So are railways caught between a rock and a hard place (whatever the unions do).

As Electric train says

Problem is all Governments irrespective of the colour of their rosette suffer from strategic myopia when it comes to committing government funding, they are willing only to see as far as the next general election

Hence how many elections did we have to wait for the NHS Staffing Plan, and when we got it the promised new places are unfunded.

[ellendune]

It has been said that Sunak, or his advisers, see themselves as a Thatcher to beat the unions. So the coal miners were beaten and effectively we have no coal industry. The result of the Uxbridge by-election has called green issues in to question. So are railways caught between a rock and a hard place (whatever the unions do).

As Electric train says

Problem is all Governments irrespective of the colour of their rosette suffer from strategic myopia when it comes to committing government funding, they are willing only to see as far as the next general election

Hence how many elections did we have to wait for the NHS Staffing Plan, and when we got it the promised new places are unfunded.

Or in that case the short term funding (before the election they believe they will loose) is minimal so they have left funding it to the next government!

[grahame]

It has been said that Sunak, or his advisers, see themselves as a Thatcher to beat the unions. So the coal miners were beaten and effectively we have no coal industry.

Indeed - and that's a history we should not forget.  The ability of UK^▸ (United Kingdom) Ltd to continue to operate in spite of industrial action is noted - perhaps far more that UK Ltd was able to operate during the miner's strike.   Whether it's operating well and to best effect and set up well for the future is, of course, a totally different question.

[Noggin]

I think one of the interesting things to watch will be Gove's housing plans.

Logically, if he's supporting urban densification over sprawling suburbs, then he should be backing rail and public transport, particularly around the new Cambridge development - anyone know how close that is to East/West Rail and the new Cambridge South station?     

[stuving]

I think one of the interesting things to watch will be Gove's housing plans.

Logically, if he's supporting urban densification over sprawling suburbs, then he should be backing rail and public transport, particularly around the new Cambridge development - anyone know how close that is to East/West Rail and the new Cambridge South station?     

Since this is supposed to be a new urban quarter and not take any green land, it will be further in than Cambridge South, won't it? His super squad of planners are asked to come up with a new vision, so existing plans wont be any guide to what or where it will be.