Travel advice 4th January onwards

[whole diary]

[froome]

11 different line updates merged into one:

Cancellations to services on all routes
Due to heavy rain flooding the railway all lines are disrupted.
Train services running across the whole Great Western Railway network will be cancelled. Disruption is expected until the end of the day.
Customer Advice
We apologise for the disruption to your journey today.

We are currently experiencing significant disruption on the network and customers are advised NOT TO TRAVEL.

Flooding has closed several routes and a person has been hit by a train near Reading.

Disruption is expected until the end of the day and you may not be able to complete your journey. If possible, please return in your direction of travel and make alternative arrangements. Please keep receipts for future reimbursement.

GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) and Elizabeth Line services will continue to operate between Paddington and Reading.

Customers should check before travelling in the morning as we expect further disruption to services from the severe weather forecast overnight.

Tickets for travel today will be valid tomorrow.

95 cancellations currently listed.

Earlier in the evening you could witness the service completely unraveling by various station departure boards showing more and more services down as DELAYED followed by CANCELLED and now they are blank. The Paddington departure board just showing Heathrow Express services.

It has to be said the rainfall this afternoon and evening over Southern England was pretty exceptional in terms of intensity over a wide area and longevity. This coming on top of many days of rain previously.

To be fair to GWR, it was only in the morning that the Met Office upgraded yesterday’s yellow warning for rainfall to another level within the scope of a yellow warning. Based on this, I don't think GWR could have issued their advice regards travelling earlier or starting your journey much earlier than lunchtime.

On a separate but related note, it’s debatable whether it should have been an Amber weather warning given the amount of rain having fallen previously.

The forecast being made at 6pm on Wednesday was very clear - widespread heavy rain across all of southern England, with inevitable flooding risk due to the very high groundwater levels, leading to travel disruption. I don't think it could have been much clearer for GWR to act.

It was a pretty exceptional rainfall event, as it was developing as it arrived and was torrential in many places. But with the chaos of Tuesday still hopefully fresh in their minds, there really shouldn't have been any excuse.

[a-driver]

The forecast being made at 6pm on Wednesday was very clear - widespread heavy rain across all of southern England, with inevitable flooding risk due to the very high groundwater levels, leading to travel disruption. I don't think it could have been much clearer for GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) to act.

It was a pretty exceptional rainfall event, as it was developing as it arrived and was torrential in many places. But with the chaos of Tuesday still hopefully fresh in their minds, there really shouldn't have been any excuse.

Short of cancelling everything there isn’t much else GWR can do. There’s the high risk areas of which there is nearly always a diversion to get around. Unfortunately there was the fatality that become a crime scene and several flood events at some locations with no history of flooding.  It never rains but it pours!

[Timmer]

The forecast being made at 6pm on Wednesday was very clear - widespread heavy rain across all of southern England, with inevitable flooding risk due to the very high groundwater levels, leading to travel disruption. I don't think it could have been much clearer for GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) to act.

It was a pretty exceptional rainfall event, as it was developing as it arrived and was torrential in many places. But with the chaos of Tuesday still hopefully fresh in their minds, there really shouldn't have been any excuse.

Even if GWR had issued a ‘Do Not Travel’ alert earlier, how many people would have observed this instruction? Most people haven’t got any choice but to travel for work.

This instruction of not to travel is happening so frequently on the railways for various reasons that its meaning may have been diluted somewhat and would wear thin with some managers of companies people work for. People travel anyway and hope for the best.

It wasn’t until the evening that the service rapidly deteriorated massively enhanced by the tragic incidents at Pangborne. That couldn’t have been foreseen.

[nickswift99]

Pangbourne station remains closed and is expected to be closed for most of the day. There are currently no listed alternatives but the 143 bus from/to Reading can be used to reach Tilehurst or Reading stations.

[TaplowGreen]

The forecast being made at 6pm on Wednesday was very clear - widespread heavy rain across all of southern England, with inevitable flooding risk due to the very high groundwater levels, leading to travel disruption. I don't think it could have been much clearer for GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) to act.

It was a pretty exceptional rainfall event, as it was developing as it arrived and was torrential in many places. But with the chaos of Tuesday still hopefully fresh in their minds, there really shouldn't have been any excuse.

Even if GWR had issued a ‘Do Not Travel’ alert earlier, how many people would have observed this instruction? Most people haven’t got any choice but to travel for work.

This instruction of not to travel is happening so frequently on the railways for various reasons that its meaning may have been diluted somewhat and would wear thin with some managers of companies people work for. People travel anyway and hope for the best.

It wasn’t until the evening that the service rapidly deteriorated massively enhanced by the tragic incidents at Pangborne. That couldn’t have been foreseen.

Speculation over how many people will or will not observe a warning is no reason not to issue it - the Met Office were timely, abundantly clear and unambiguous in their own messaging, specifically citing travel problems which you would have thought would have triggered similar from transport providers.

It gives people pause for thought and to consider alternatives to travelling - working from home is a realistic option for many (yes I know not all) these days even on an ad hoc basis.

I suspect this was just dither, poor planning and lack of effective decision making - by the time any sort of warning was issued by GWR (initially only on Twitter) most would already have travelled and it was too late - events at Pangbourne notwithstanding however this exacerbated the situation with resources already thinly stretched due to the weather - as usual it appeared that staff did their best but there were far too few of them especially at Paddington and Reading where the main pinch points occurred.

[grahame]

From GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) ...

Dear Graham
 
Due to a serious incident on the railway between Reading and Didcot Parkway yesterday evening, which involved the police taking control of the main line until around 0600 this morning, today (Friday 5 January) we have multiple trains and a substantial proportion of our crew in the wrong place.
 
Because of this police incident and the continued flooding on parts of our network, we’re asking all customers to check before they travel at www.gwr.com/check because of the significant disruption caused to journeys today.
 
We expect short notice alterations and cancellations, as well as a reduced level of service on our high-speed long distance routes, throughout today.
 
In regards to the flooding, the lines between Swindon and Bristol Parkway, and Reading and Castle Cary remain closed.
 
Tickets for travel today will be valid tomorrow (Saturday 6 January). We also have ticket acceptance in place with CrossCountry, London Underground, Elizabeth line, South Western Railway, Southern, Thameslink and Transport for Wales until further notice to help customers complete their journeys.
 
We’re very sorry for the continued disruption to our customers, it has been a very challenging week. As ever any help you can give to make sure your networks are aware of the above, or sharing the latest updates from our X (formerly known as Twitter) teams at www.x.com/gwrhelp and www.x.com/networkrailwest would be greatly appreciated.
 
Best wishes
 
Tom & Heledd
 
Thomas Lydon | Public Affairs Manager | Great Western Railway
 
Heledd Iolo, Public Affairs Manager, Network Rail Western

[didcotdean]

The UK^▸ (United Kingdom) Met Office's high resolution model (UKV) has definitely performed quite poorly this week for accuracy in predicting the rain on both Tuesday and Thursday for both intensity and positioning. It has come into line with other models such as the French Arpege late on but this means it wasn't represented too well early in public forecasts (ie just being described along the lines of 'something to look out for').

Now GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) would be having more detailed probabilistic info than the public but I do wonder if there has been a fatigue setting in relating to potential weather events for proactive cancellations, warnings etc.

On the flooding front if anyone wants to use Didcot Parkway, consider bringing your wellies. The drainage for the underpass has been overwhelmed again with platforms 4 & 5 presently out of use.

[Rob S]

I turned up at Paddington at 2215 for the 2228 train to Swindon, saw the blank departure boards and then eventually noticed a GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) staff member telling people that there were no services and that the only alternative was Elizabeth Line to Reading and then taxi at our initial expense, but didn't get any idea of the cause, so I assumed it was flooding that hadn't affected my outward journey at 5-6pm. Due to some faffing about with some photos I'd taken at the ROH I eventually turned up to find the next EL train leaving in 5 minutes was also the last service of the day.

With no organised staff at the northern end of Reading to direct proceedings a black cab eventually turned up and £111 later I was at Swindon station. On the M4 I did look to see what the potential cause of all this was and surprised to see it was an incident between Readiing and Didcot, and wondered how this can mean a total closure of all GW^▸ (Great Western) departures to anywhere (not even terminating at Reading). What would the people turning up for the last PAD^» (Paddington (London) - next trains)-SWI^» (Swindon - next trains)/BRI^» (Bristol Temple Meads - next trains) have done, taxi from London?

[Timmer]

The UK^▸ (United Kingdom) Met Office's high resolution model (UKV) has definitely performed quite poorly this week for accuracy in predicting the rain on both Tuesday and Thursday for both intensity and positioning. It has come into line with other models such as the French Arpege late on but this means it wasn't represented too well early in public forecasts (ie just being described along the lines of 'something to look out for').

Of late, I'm getting the impression that Met Office weather warnings are pretty much only based on what their UKV model is showing. Going back to Tuesday, as you say the French Arpege model was showing higher wind speeds the night before that were worthy of an amber warning. The following morning the UKV showed these higher wind speeds with the yellow warning upgraded to amber. A difficult call I know as you always want a warning to mean something. If you issue too many warnings or too higher warnings, their significance can be diluted, especially by the click bait media!

[JayMac]

I turned up at Paddington at 2215 for the 2228 train to Swindon, saw the blank departure boards and then eventually noticed a GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) staff member telling people that there were no services and that the only alternative was Elizabeth Line to Reading and then taxi at our initial expense, but didn't get any idea of the cause, so I assumed it was flooding that hadn't affected my outward journey at 5-6pm. Due to some faffing about with some photos I'd taken at the ROH I eventually turned up to find the next EL train leaving in 5 minutes was also the last service of the day.

With no organised staff at the northern end of Reading to direct proceedings a black cab eventually turned up and £111 later I was at Swindon station. On the M4 I did look to see what the potential cause of all this was and surprised to see it was an incident between Readiing and Didcot, and wondered how this can mean a total closure of all GW^▸ (Great Western) departures to anywhere (not even terminating at Reading). What would the people turning up for the last PAD^» (Paddington (London) - next trains)-SWI^» (Swindon - next trains)/BRI^» (Bristol Temple Meads - next trains) have done, taxi from London?

There was a serious incident in Pangbourne last night. Both at the station and in the village. British Transport Police at the scene requested the closure of all lines through the station.

Perhaps it was thought better to deal with those attempting to head west at Paddington, rather than Reading.

[Timmer]

On the flooding front if anyone wants to use Didcot Parkway, consider bringing your wellies. The drainage for the underpass has been overwhelmed again with platforms 4 & 5 presently out of use.

Cancellations to services between Didcot Parkway and Oxford

Due to flooding between Didcot Parkway and Oxford some lines are closed.

Train services running through these stations may be cancelled or revised. Disruption is expected until the end of the day.

Can you tell me more about the incident?
We are unable to use some of the platforms at Didcot Parkway owing to flooding. Due to this our local stopping services cannot run and the majority of our high speed services cannot call at Didcot Parkway either.

What are my alternatives?
To assist you with your journey we will be operating a minimal rail replacement service at stations between Oxford and Didcot Parkway.

[JayMac]

Moderation note.

I've updated this thread's title to include 5th January too.

JayMac

[ellendune]

The UK^▸ (United Kingdom) Met Office's high resolution model (UKV) has definitely performed quite poorly this week for accuracy in predicting the rain on both Tuesday and Thursday for both intensity and positioning. It has come into line with other models such as the French Arpege late on but this means it wasn't represented too well early in public forecasts (ie just being described along the lines of 'something to look out for').

Of late, I'm getting the impression that Met Office weather warnings are pretty much only based on what their UKV model is showing. Going back to Tuesday, as you say the French Arpege model was showing higher wind speeds the night before that were worthy of an amber warning. The following morning the UKV showed these higher wind speeds with the yellow warning upgraded to amber. A difficult call I know as you always want a warning to mean something. If you issue too many warnings or too higher warnings, their significance can be diluted, especially by the click bait media!

If you want to understand what the Met Office is up against in their forecasting, I suggest following their weekly "Deep Dive" on their You Tube channel.  They do indeed look at the European and even the US weather models as well as their own.  

[stuving]

The UK^▸ (United Kingdom) Met Office's high resolution model (UKV) has definitely performed quite poorly this week for accuracy in predicting the rain on both Tuesday and Thursday for both intensity and positioning. It has come into line with other models such as the French Arpege late on but this means it wasn't represented too well early in public forecasts (ie just being described along the lines of 'something to look out for').

Of late, I'm getting the impression that Met Office weather warnings are pretty much only based on what their UKV model is showing. Going back to Tuesday, as you say the French Arpege model was showing higher wind speeds the night before that were worthy of an amber warning. The following morning the UKV showed these higher wind speeds with the yellow warning upgraded to amber. A difficult call I know as you always want a warning to mean something. If you issue too many warnings or too higher warnings, their significance can be diluted, especially by the click bait media!

The track of the rain area was the main factor that I was aware of. Earlier on TuesdayWednesday, the heavy rain was predicted to just reach Reading, then slide past on the east side before heading north. Later on, with the upgrade of the warning, this area swept over Reading and on to Oxford, before again moving to the northeast. This matters for the watch I keep on rain in the upper Thames catchment - though at the moment the EA are confident Reading and Caversham will not see levels get much higher.

Prediction also failed in northern France. Pas-de-Calais has had a truly miserable winter so far. Widespread floods in November, then after that slowly retreated some parts had a further rise in levels in December. This time some of the same and some new places saw a sudden rise again, with widespread flooding. Some of the defensive measures taken out after the last episode had not been put back, due to the short notice. The rivers concerned are not big ones - Canche, Hem, Liane, Lys - and the Aa, no longer just everyone's favourite funny spelling.

I was a day out, I think

[infoman]

Rob S

Will you be putting a claim for the £111  taxi ride?