HS2 - Government proposals, alternative routes and general discussion

[whole diary]

[Electric train]

Network Rail have made the point to the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) that cancelling HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) Phase 2 has could lead to a reduction of passenger capacity on the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) on the north section from where HS2 joins the WCML in the Trent Valley.   This is due to the HS2 trains being shorter than the Pendolino's.

NR^» (Network Rail - home page) are making the case to DfT that investment will be needed on the WCML to increase capacity.  This capacity increase will not be cheap and sill take time to plan and deliver meaning there is a high risk the entire WCML could be throttled capacity wise for more than a decade.  NR are confident they will get the additional funding from the DfT which will be in effect a hidden cost of cancelling HS2.

[TaplowGreen]

A somewhat ironic legacy for HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)).............

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67441085?at_medium=RSS^▸ (Regional Spatial Strategy)&at_campaign=KARANGA

[eightonedee]

Errr...shouldn't highway authorities already be adequately funded for routine repairs? Or is that missing from the Treasury model for funding the country's infras
infrastructure?

[Electric train]

Errr...shouldn't highway authorities already be adequately funded for routine repairs? Or is that missing from the Treasury model for funding the country's infras
infrastructure?

Highways especially those managed by local authorities has been drastically underfunded for the last 15 years. 

The funding for "pot hole" repairs is a promissory note the amount is quite small and is spread over a number of years past the next GE.  Highways infrastructure does not have the same 5 yearly control period (CP) as the Railways infrastructure nor do local authorities have a 5 year CP funding agreement with the Government.

[ellendune]

Local authorities - I was taught many years ago as a local authority engineer - do not have the powers to fund revenue expenditure from capital.  The solution to my mind is not 5 year funding settlements from central government, but local authorities being given the means to raise their own revenue from some sort of local taxes.  Moving the funding of adult social care totally to central government might be enough to do that using existing council tax, but if not anotehr form of local tax would be required. 

[grahame]

The move of funds from building a new railway to filling holes in existing roads is an interesting one.   I would agree with the commentators who are suggesting that this maintenance work should have been funded anyway, and I find myself wondering if the shift of this money into the program from HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) means that other money does NOT need to be shifted into the pothole budget - that although we are "assured" that the saved money is staying in transport projects, it means that other monies that should have been in transport projects are no longer needed or can be taken away.

[Mark A]

From the House of Commons Library 24/11/23 - What next for HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s))?

Mark

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/what-next-for-hs2/

[Mark A]

"...the HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) Phase 2b Bill has been re-introduced in Parliament for the 2023–24 session so that part of the route can be used for Northern Powerhouse Rail."

Mark

[TonyK]

I love the way that even the Commons library puts "re-invest" in inverted commas.

[IndustryInsider]

Oh dear:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/dec/23/new-plans-for-hs2-money-will-bring-higher-fares-and-congestion-for-decades

[Electric train]

Oh dear:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/dec/23/new-plans-for-hs2-money-will-bring-higher-fares-and-congestion-for-decades

Yep, Network Rail serious investment for North South route to Scotland is and has been focused on the East Coast Mainline for CP6^▸ (Control Period 6 - The five year period between 2019 and 2024) and CP7 because of the impact HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) was going to have on the West Coast Mainline

CP7 and CP8 on the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) is or maybe was about resignalling North of Crewe to Glasgow to install ERTMS^▸ (European Rail Traffic Management System.) (in cab signalling) and traction power upgrade

[TonyK]

Oh dear:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/dec/23/new-plans-for-hs2-money-will-bring-higher-fares-and-congestion-for-decades

The Guardian / Observer have never really been cheerleaders for HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)), which makes it even more of an indictment. Network Rail is caught between a rock and a pile of ballast, as it has to get on with life under the new reality, and do what it can to keep the trains running, for now at least. It doesn't have a remit that allows it to say "No, Prime Minister", and now has to start a decades-long process of planning and doing things without HS2. It seems the PM is one of those who think it's a simple matter of putting more trains on. Meanwhile, the budget is going on things that should have been done anyway. Mending roads in London isn't going to solve the woes of transport in the wider UK^▸ (United Kingdom). It's akin to spending the money you set aside for mending the roof on more buckets to catch the rain, and replacement carpets every year. 

[ellendune]

A report by New Civil Engineer Magazine on the Transport Select Committee enquiry into HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)).  Reasons for cost increases:

The main financial issues that Thompson highlighted related to premature cost estimates, civils contracts, changes in scope and inflation.

Some further lesser factors leading to additional costs:

“The government itself has sometimes said [...] ‘We can’t really afford the schedule, so we need you to go slower because we can’t really afford it in cashflow terms.’” He said the current year was a good example of this. “If we go slower and do something in two, three years, it costs more,”

a hostile operating environment where both getting consents for the project and stakeholder engagement had a big effect. Discussing the hostile environment, Thompson said: “Some stakeholders have been pretty hostile to the idea HS2 should go through particular areas.  “Getting consents has been a really significant issue in some particular cases. Planning consent is meant to be a 56-day turnaround. The longest we’ve waited [...] for the consent to be rejected is two years. Then we’ve had to go through the planning appeals process.”

[TonyK]

None of the points made about the effects of cancellation are new, and none should be unexpected. I remember something by Andrew (now Lord) Adonis long ago, saying that the only alternatives were stagnation or no weekend railway on the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) for a couple of decades. There wasn't a workable Plan B that didn't include lots more road traffic. I remember the previous WCML upgrade, which did a lot of good in terms of speed on some parts, but ended up costing double the estimates and caused serious inconvenience to travellers (me included) over a very long period. The spin doctors may say what a good service there will be between the centre of the political universe and Birmingham, but they don't mention how more freight will be carried by rail between the frozen unfriendly wastes north of Wolverhampton and the rest of the country.

As would be the case with building the line, the full effects of not building a lot of it will only become apparent a few years from now, when everyone starts trying to blame everyone else for the mess. I hope this cancellation turns out to be only a pause, but I don't expect to see resumption high up in any party's manifesto for the coming election. The present incumbents seem keen to use any money saved by cancelling HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) north of Brum to make London a better place to drive around, and to fund a few last-minute tax cuts. I do not like the idea of trying to bribe me with my own money.

[Witham Bobby]

[snip]

 I do not like the idea of trying to bribe me with my own money.

It's what politicos of all persuasions have done since for ever.  Very few of them will admit it, though.  It's all "Government funding" according to most.  And it seems that an unhealthy portion of the country doesn't see through it