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Author Topic: Update - Two years ago, I was a railway virgin.  (Read 3129 times)
grahame
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« on: August 22, 2007, 08:31:36 »

It's two years  ago this month that I saw a letter in the local paper suggesting that the train service across Wiltshire was to be withdrawn at the end of December 2006 ... and felt (as a user of the service, and aomeone who's job heavily depended on other people arriving on it) that I should take a further look at the situation.   At that stage, the jury was our as far as I was concerned as to whether or not the service justified being retained or enhanced, or whether the decision taken by whatever authority was the right one in the broad picture of things, in spite of the personal effect it would have on me.

What did I learn?   Early on, I learned that the current service had been growing dramatically (I could have suggested that, based on what I had seen, but I was given figures by the Rail Regulator to back it up).  I learned that the current service had been an unwelcome guest at its northern terminus at Swindon, with the operator of that station - the First group - doing little to help traffic on the line to salisbury and Southampton.  And I learned that the operating company - Wessex Trains - had been so cash starved that publicity was sporadic.  In fact I learned that it was someting of a miracle, brought about by the necessity to tavel the route and the abject unsuitability of other public transport alternatives, that it was growing as it was.   That the growth was only a tiny, tiny proportion of what could have been achieved.

Was it worth an effort to have the case seriously looked at?   Well - I personally came to the case after the Strategic rail authortity's consultation (which few people in these parts were aware of at the time) had closed. And I was told that the case had been looked at, that it could not be re-opened, and that it was my fault that my inputs wouldn't be listened to because I had missed the deadline. Fair enough?  No - not really.  I spoke with others who HAD objected in time and had receive brush-offs too. I spoke with train users - regulars who were going to have their service cur from under their feet who hadn't been aware of the possibility. And I learned for the first time about many consultations - about how the end goal of the process was to gather views, and not to act in the light of those view.  "Give 'em a chance to blow off steam then we'll go ahead with what was proposed inthe first place".  We even brought a smoking gun to light - thanks to Freedom of information, we learn how discussiosn had taken place in order to restrict customer's inputs to the minimum required, and how those inputs had been solicited in parallel with descisions that were being made, rather tnanbefore any decisions. Basically, the process stank so much that it convinced me that the case had not been seriously looked at, and that it deserved said consideration.   

You'll notice that - at this point - I had still not concluded what an appropriate service would be.  Just that a PROPER look was appropriate.

Flawed process can, sometimes, lead to a good decision. And there seemed little practical point in finding that a process was flawed, turning all the wheels to reveal that fact, only to have the whell go full circle and come to the same findings based on a fine and upstanding re-worked process.  So I found myself learning, and learning fast, all about trains - train services, train finances, train politics, train marketing, and train enthusiast and pressure groups.  And in parallel learning about our home county of Wiltshire - the towns, the people, where they live, play and work and hwo they get between those venues.  And there's a third strand too - looking forward to the future and seeing how populations, travel requirements, and facilities available would shrink and grow 1, 5, 10 and 20 years hence.

Where did this lead me?   

It lead me to conclude that the 35% figure for growth supplied by the Rail regulator was unduly high - a fluke. But that the 0.8% figure used as the basis of the new service specification was unduly low - a distorted figure that forecast something different to rail growth.  The growth figure that should best have been use was around 9% to 12%.

With an ongooing service at around the current level, would the growth also carry on at about 10%?   Yes - it would.  Based on journeys per head of population, based on surverys of portential passengers, we learned of a service that wouldn't "peak out" until in was carrying some 5 to 10 times the current passenger levels - a strong growth curve to continue.   And a growth that would be accellerated with better station facilities, more reliable trains, better marketing all of which were reletively cheap options.

And so - the goals were set. (1) To get the TransWilts train service to a point where it was known about - no longer a footnote on a re-franchise of a great swathe of train services. (2) To get the future of the service seriously reviewed, with an objective of establishing what an appropriate service would be. (3) To acheive / regain, and retain, a service at that appropriate level.

Was I alone?

No.  Absolutely NOT.   Had I been alone in my quest, it would have fizzled out in the first few weeks.   "It'll be a miracle if you can raise a meeting with 20 people" said the doubters.   We raised 20. We raised 50. We packed out a 2 coach train with a three figure number last Christmas.  And we raised 1700 signatures on a petition on the PM's web site - the biggest domestic public transport issue there at the time.

How was the new kid on the block received?  Gosh - I was fearful of this one! I expected - and could have totally understood - a cool reception from folks who had been strong in there suppor for the service for many years. Yes, there were pockets of doubt and I can recall three specific cases locally; one telling me that I didn't know what I was about (true at first!!), one warning me that I didn't know what I was up against and that I would get burnt out getting nowhere, and a third intent on defending his own seat.  Which I did not want anyway!  That wasn't what it was about.

But in amongst those few doubters, there was the vast majority who were supporters. I dressed up in a mask and walked around the town.  Advertising a Ball to raise funds in support of Cancer research - and with my train "stuff" as a sideline. No-one was very interesed in the ball even though nearly every family has been touched. But everyone wanted to talk train.

I'm a bit of a WWW (World Wide Web) / Internet publicist, so I started off by registering a domain - I was surprised to get it - www.savethetrain.org.uk - putting up a site desribing the situation (and taking care not to over-sell) - and seeing what would happen.  Well - today, over 37,500 different host computers have visited the site.  That's over 1500 different NEW visitors every day.

I haven't - I couldn't possibly - have got to this stage on my own. There are many who have been supporting, and many who have been actively supporting. Including people who are greatly respected and in high places.  And there are those who have been much more that just actively supportive too; there's such a great temptation to name names, but look around on our forums and you'll get a flavour and have a pretty good idea who some of them are. Others - "you know who you are" have also offered quite exceptional help without which the campaign wouldn't have progressed as it has done, but are readers and commenters in the background rather than direct contributors in the pubolic space.  And I'm delighted to see the team remain - with one sad exception; Gordon Dodge passed away a few months agor and is deeply missed.

Where are we now?

1. We HAVE got the service known about somewhat better. Locally with newspaper and local TV and radio exposure, local councillors and MPs (Member of Parliament) and prospective MPs right along the line through Wilshire have given (and continue to give) active support. Looking wider, the First Great Western and First Group directors, and civil servants at the Department for Transport are very much more aware of the service, the area, and its needs than they were 2 years ago when its proposed demise was a two line paragraph in a 100 page report.

2. The service HAS been looked at further. On one hand, I'm greatly impressed by some of the committment and effort that I'm told had been put in by various paties, and I'm certainly impressed by a number of individuals in important positions with the three key player organisations - First, the DfT» (Department for Transport - about) and Wiltshire County Council.  On the other hand, I'm depressed by the lack of any decent practical steps forward, and the provision of an even less appopriate service than that which was threatened upon us two years ago.  It could be argued that the purpose of looking further at the service has been to "Manage our expectations" (a temr used by one of the civil servants) in a downwards direction.

3. The service WAS slashed back in December 2006.  Requests to run the remaining 2 trains at the most useful time of day came to nowt - with trains from Swindon at 06:19 and 18:42.   60% of trains removed.  95% of traffic lost.  An act of gross vandalism.   With - as you would expect from vandals - nothing done on the ground to put the wrongs right.

Strangley, there is some suggestion that even amongst the apparent lack of success quoted we have achieved something. I have heard it said that when the service was closed down for over a week last August, it might have returned in the form of a shuttle bus service between Trowbridge and Chippenham, to be integrated into First's 234 route in due course - the way certain services have been withdrawn in Staffordshire.  And we are talking ...

Where do we go now?

What is an appropriate service?   The case has been made - as the barest minimum - for a decent train to allow commuters from the rapidly expanding West Wiltshire area to reach Swindon for an 08:45 to 09:00 start to their day, and return after a finish at 17:00 to 17:15.   That's NOT an "appropriate" service - but this additional train would be a first vital step in that direction.

An appropriate service would offer a minimum of a train every 2 hours throughought most of the day (3 hour gap at lunchtime OK) from Swindon to Westbury, either continuing on or with excellent and reliable connections to Frome, Warminster and Salisbury. And with this service increased to hourly, traffic would offer / grow such that each individual train would be busier than the individual trains on a 2-hourly service.

There are also two great myths that have been dispelled.  The time the service takes is not critical to a few minutes - on this line, it really doesn't matter if it's 25 minutes or 30 minutes from Melksham to Swindon (heck - it's well over an hour by other pubolic transport!). And the LOCAL fares, at a far lower "per mile" rate than peak main line ones, could stand an extra 2 pounds per journey on top of inflation rises ... on 120k journeys per year, that would being in an extra quarter of a million pounds - remarkably close to the extra income that the First group say they would need to make the service viable.

We have moved on in two years.  It's no longer "the provision of such a service is not justified".  It's now "It's not my responsibility, Guv - I support you but ask THEM".  And that statement is made by Wiltshire County Council pointing at the First Group and at the Department for Transport.  It is made by the First Group pointing at the Department for Transport and Wiltshire County Council.  And it's made by the Department for Transport pointing at Wiltshire County Council and the First Group.  So the case IS made - and admitted to be made.

---------

While I have been seated here, writing this update in the public area of the hotel in Melksham where I work when I'm in town, a retired gentleman popped in to return a computer book he had borrowed from me overnight.  "Aren't you one of the chap's who's been involved in campaigning for a better train service for Melksham?" he asked me, and we got chatting.

Anthony used to use the train, but "it's only one a day now, and the timings don't suit me.  I really need a train at around 10 O'Clock in the morning .... and to be able to get back late in the evening" he told me.  He now uses the car.  And what are Anthony's journeys?   Melksham to London.  He only goes a few times a year, but each trip in his "gas-guzzler" - his words - are a loss of not only a local but also a long distance fare to First Great Western.

Come on, everyone.   Let's get our fingers out and let's get an appropriate service running, as soon as practical, for the thousands of Anthonys of this world who live in Wiltshire and the thousands who want to visit us.  And ... that appropropriate service would also be to the mutual benefit of the Dft, and First, and Wiltshire County Council too.   I do love the opportunity to put a "win, win, win, win" case.
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« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2007, 11:37:03 »

Thanks for this, I have been following the campaign with some interest, since I did commute on this route for a while in the 1990s.

It would appear that the cruellest blow for the service came at the point when the original Dec 06 specification was changed to allow the "peak" trains to run at rather inconvenient times. I presume that to run a service on the original spec (was it 0830-ish arrival in Swindon?) a peak train unit would have to be allocated for the service, whereas the current service can be operated by "borrowing" resources which are nominally allocated elsewhere for the rest of the day. A knock-on effect of having no dedicated unit might be that it becomes much more expensive for an off-peak service to be bolted back on.

It would be very interesting to know what criteria and decision processes were used in approving this change to the original specification, and how it came about. It would appear so fundamental to the viability of the service, that one would expect there to be a very clear economic case for the change (along the lines of DfT» (Department for Transport - about) closure guidance, which I have read with interest). I wonder if such a case exists?
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« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2007, 12:50:58 »

The decision to change the specification for the Melksham service came in response to the perceived need to improve the timing of peak / schoolchildren services on the Stroud Valley line , which utilise the same unit (link below.)
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/forum/index.php?topic=846.msg2429#msg2429

Regarding the closure guidance , the link below may be of interest.
http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/rail/legislation/sgd/railwaysclosuresguidancea/closuresguidanceillustrative1256
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« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2007, 14:20:13 »

The decision to change the specification for the Melksham service came in response to the perceived need to improve the timing of peak / schoolchildren services on the Stroud Valley line , which utilise the same unit (link below.)

Thanks for those links.

Very interesting - it would appear that the specification change was not subject to any robust appraisal (as proposed, for example, in the closure guidance) - it was simply a trade-off to meet the desires of another stakeholder group without increasing franchise subsidy. So if formal appraisal is not used, what are the criteria? He who shouts loudest (or is better connected) gets the train service, perhaps. Or more likely, it just happened by accident, and now we're stuck with it  Sad
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« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2007, 15:17:46 »

Personally , I think that there is both a short / medium term threat to the TransWilts service and a long term one.

Short / Medium Term :

The Melksham line is to be developed as a key freight route. The Dft class this as one where Freight Operating Companies pay more in return for assured rights of access.

In other words , the right to run trains whenever they like (subject to main line pathing) without those pesky , empty passenger trains getting in the way.

Long Term :

The South West Regional Planning Assessment For The Railway envisages that an hourly Stroud Valley line service will be provided by new Intercity Express trains from London dividing at Swindon. If this happens , then there will be no "non - Intercity" Stroud Valley line unit , and thus no TransWilts line unit.

Quote (page 92 of the link below) :
http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/rail/strategyfinance/strategy/rpa/pdfswrpa

"One option that would have significant benefits for the peripheral areas of the region, where demand is lower, is to split some intercity services, potentially possible as part of the IEP (Intercity Express Program / Project.), after they have passed the busiest sections of route. A long train would not necessarily be needed at off-peak times west of Swindon on services to South Wales or west of Exeter on services to the far south west. If the new train were able to divide into two portions, it would enable a direct hourly service throughout the day to be introduced to Gloucester/Cheltenham by splitting trains to South Wales at Swindon and to Torbay by splitting a standard hourly Penzance train at Exeter."

As you can see from the DfT» (Department for Transport - about) Closure Guidance link , if withdrawal of the Melksham / TransWilts service is proposed , then consultants will come up with a range of possible options. The recommended one is likely to be bustitution , given that a rail - replacement bus service already exists from Melksham - Chippenham railway station in the morning peak , and from Chippenham railway station - Melksham in the evening peak and later. This would have the effect of drastically reducing the potential cost (possibly to zero) of any extra buses required to replace the rail service. Jacobs used the same principle when recommending the withdrawal of the Oxford - Bicester Town service.

Quote from the Greater Western Franchise Replacement Outline Business Case Report (page 117 of the link below.)
http://www.dft.gov.uk/foi/responses/2006/september06/swindonwestburytrainsservice/greaterwesternoutlinebusines1103

"On the basis that a bus operation is available with similar or better generalised journey time, it is assessed that this service could be withdrawn without significant economic disbenefits. Significant cost savings would be secured."

I realise that TransWilts journey time is a moot point , but its the bottom line that would count , and set against a train service that had lost most of its passengers , it would probably be no contest.

This is why I spend much of my time promoting the Save The Train cause , as , in my view it is imperative that we get an appropriate service before it is too late.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2007, 15:39:11 by Lee Fletcher » Logged

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« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2007, 16:09:17 »

Very interesting - it would appear that the specification change was not subject to any robust appraisal (as proposed, for example, in the closure guidance) - it was simply a trade-off to meet the desires of another stakeholder group without increasing franchise subsidy. So if formal appraisal is not used, what are the criteria? He who shouts loudest (or is better connected) gets the train service, perhaps. Or more likely, it just happened by accident, and now we're stuck with it  Sad

The change was made as a result of inputs from (amongst others) the Labour MP (Member of Parliament) for the Stroud Valley on behalf of his constituents, and was no accident from what I can see. There had been a slight degree of consultation on the original SLC (Service Level Commitment), and a great deal of further input to FGW (First Great Western) (at their request) on how they should provide services within that SLC.  However, I am not aware of a single passenger group nor other Stakeholder that uses(used) the services to Swindon from West and South Wiltshire that were consulted about the catastrophic change last minute changes.   One week the specification said "08:00 or later" and the next week "07:30 or later", much to our surprise and dismay, and we were presented with a train running in marginal time and not at peak time.

The Stroud Valley and their MP did have an excellent case in that the previous draft timetable had introduced a potential problem for a load of schoolkids.  I can't fault the MP for representing his voters (or rather his voter's kids).  But the solution should NOT have been to arbitarily, and without any of the usual consultation, rob Peter to pay Paul.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2007, 16:41:34 by grahame » Logged

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